Kefi Gold And Copper Share Discussion Threads

[taxlosstone] 24/6/2021 10:12

It seems that many shareholders think that the share price will rise significantly when full financing is done & dusted. The Company states that full financing is tantalising close. These comments could have & probably were made any time over the last 3 years. This time is different, I hear some say. I really, really, really (really, really would not have been enough) hope that is true. :-)

[lurker5] 24/6/2021 09:59

NPV's are never any guide to a sustainable share price. Realistically, a mining share begins to respond to cash flow (or a dividend) becoming imminent and accords a rating to that. That often means exceeding a NPV value for a short time, but only for a time, after which the knowledgeable take their profit and move to the next imminent producer. Eventually the NPV value is all 'used up' (or already in the balance sheet) and the shares fall back. See AAZ for a good example. That's for one limited life mine of course. Moving on to other projects complcates matters depending whether the original NPV earnings have to be used for development or not. At all stages however, its the free cash flow profile (or a reguar dividend) that determines the shares.

[pennstreet] 24/6/2021 09:49

Thanks for that

[belfastboyo] 24/6/2021 09:30

Correct...with an 11p+ value or more when "all risk removed" aka binding funding closure etc. Their research has a "risk" factor discount built into each opportunity to derive a valuation on the projected NPVs of the futrlure cash flow projections

[pennstreet] 24/6/2021 08:56

So are WHI stating their valuation as of now at 5.6p ?

[estseon] 24/6/2021 08:42

Aviator,

WHI has used a very low assumed price for gold (long term) - the one that Kefi has used.

They can only work on the permitted development though have indicated upsides.

"Financing almost at an end, dilution at a minimum"

"Going forward, we expect additional growth in resources and output in Ethiopia"

"Small increase in resources, large increase in value"

"...more aggressive stance on the underground potential"

"...before we consider the impact of developments in Saudi Arabia"

"VMS never occur in isolation" - plate techtonics - live example - Galapagos

"...before we add value from the Jibal Qutman project" - with surrounding areas subject to applications, Kefi, in the past, talked about 2m ozs.

"Commodities look like remaining strong" - perhaps the market has yet to adjust its long-term forcasts for metal prices

"Kefi is shortly going to become the next gold developer off the block" Well, the share price does not yet reflect that and it is a pretty categorical statement. There is still a mix of 'believers' and 'non-believers' on this BB.

Fair value with all risks removed approx 6x current market capitalisation

They have used a gold price of $1,550/oz


Anybody taking account of potential dilution through conversion of the $59m (($45m + $14m) into Kefi shares post commencement of production is double-deducting because that $59m is treated as debt in the NPV calculation.

NPV assumes pre-production capex of $220m but the only debt will be the senior debt facility of $140m and the off-taker $15m. The rest is equity at the project level or through conversion of debt into Kefi shares priced post commencement of production (and post Hawiah DFS according to HAA's predictions).

Furthermore, Kefi's consultants discount the revenues back to now. WTF are they doing??? They are accruing interest cost during the construction period AND discounting back to now. FFS!!!

[peverill] 24/6/2021 08:30

How long before the next can kicking shows up.Harry out.

[lurker5] 24/6/2021 08:26

Who is this child, Riotinto etc who thinks he can 'monitor' whoever posts here ? Seems the fact that he's posted obsessively, and keeps reposting the Kefi 'story' that he's copied from somewhere, but with no analysis or informed opinion, makes him 'the expert'!

[theaviator] 24/6/2021 08:07

15p for gold sounds reasonable to me.

[christopher logsdon] 24/6/2021 08:05

I think TW has said 15 to 20p but we just need to get the gold out of the ground

[theaviator] 24/6/2021 07:58

Well nothing has changed really Scott apart from some dilution from the 2018 note but not THAT much. WHI don't seem to be at the match if you ask me, whilst I do understand feelings/views over Harry & also funding.

[scotty1] 24/6/2021 07:52

Had a word with TW this morn and he agrees that the WH note is "unambitious in its valuation" but believes when funding is secured their "risk weighting falls in scope for a upgrade"

[tom barnaby] 24/6/2021 07:36

I note that the avatar RioTinted_Specs had rather a late one yesterday.

I should strongly recommend a berroca and a couple of paracetemol with the cornflakes this morning (If you can keep them down).

[theaviator] 24/6/2021 06:37

Got this WH Ireland one now..https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/files/WHI-Production-ready-KEFI-21June21.pdf

[theaviator] 24/6/2021 06:31

Last I could find was Cantor's in 2018 at 15p

[theaviator] 24/6/2021 06:28

Which broker note? A new one or old Beaufort one?

[riotinted_specs] 24/6/2021 02:50

Spelling error clowns not clins

[tom barnaby] 23/6/2021 21:24

14141/2

So we have a paid for ‘brokers note’ widely distributed throughout the city and available to all PIs vs a post by an anonymous avatar on a feee bb.

Which one is more influential and more likely the one to be concerned about, hmmm?

[belfastboyo] 23/6/2021 21:23

Don't disagree with any of that...just any statement that gold prices don't matter to Kefi...of course they do...the higher the prices in fiat the higher the future cash flows and profits for shareholders (assuming of course Harry/BOD actually deliver the TKGM funding closure goods) which if past record is the measure is far from certain...we live in hope of course as if he/they do then a future double digit share price is entirely possible imho

[belfastboyo] 23/6/2021 21:19

No I'm more concerned by derampers trying desperately to downplay what could be a major re rate opportunity for the company with insinuations and negative statements myself...you?

[neally99911] 23/6/2021 20:57

Is anyone else even the slightest bit suspicious that a marketing valuation from an "pay us and we'll say what you want" analyst came out just as Kefi need to raise millions to keep the lights on ? I wonder who paid for it?

I think the unsecured loan Harry was talking about is about to be RNS'ed and the terms will be very painful given the uncertainty re revocation of the licence and the constant disappointments......