Jupiter Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lastof themohicans] 25/1/2012 09:40

excellance,

Yes they want to raise more cash, so that they can speed up development of the block, as they will need to install pipelines of there own etc to get it fully into production. However they recognise that it is not a good time to raise money, nor is it a good idea to raise the money before trial production is up and running from J50 & J52.

Initial production for the wells is expected to be 100 BOPD for J50, 500 BOPD for J52, 600 BOPD for J51 and J53 shoudl fall in the 500-600 BOPD range.

J50 was not fracced in the same way as the others and they may in time go back and try and re-frac it to increase its production rate to around the 300 BOPD.

LOTM

[lastof themohicans] 25/1/2012 09:30

Someuwin,

It is a great opportunity, as long as you factor in the political risk.

One of the best documents to read as it teaches you a lot about how things work in the country for tax etc, is this broker report



You will see from it that the shareprice is very much geared to the price of oil and the flow rates of the wells. Only thing is you need to multiple by 15 any reference to the share price due to the consolidation that took place.

J50 was a learning experience since, then they have done better and better with each well and it looks like they will get starting production rates around the 550 to 600 barrels a day rate going forward. That is over 20% ahead of the base case used in the calculation and the oil price is way over $90.

So undervalued and the reserves are already proven, just sit and hold and reap the rewards as the field / fields are developed.

Personally still pref to hold the stock through the ASX rather than AIM. As it avoids MM and there games.

LOTM

[excellance] 25/1/2012 09:26

i think maybe i have missed the boat for today... maybe i'll wait and see if it drops back a little!

it will be a while before these can actually monetise, and flow rates will more than likely be under 500 bopd, so all 4 wells would give about 1600 bopd when they eventually get to start production.

i wonder if they will need more cash?

[someuwin] 25/1/2012 09:26

"Initial analysis indicates 87m gross and 56m net pay"

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 09:21

I think the potential for P2 upgrades here is strong. The potential for increases in bopd output is strong. The potential for further price appreciation is strong with, of course, the inevitable pullbacks which are so essential for a healthy an sustainable rise

[excellance] 25/1/2012 09:21

finally, it works... but they want 50p per share!

was 41p when i first tried early on...

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 09:14

The buying at present is retail. Any significant interest could see this explode

[someuwin] 25/1/2012 09:11

Cheers LOTM - This looks like a great opportunity.

[lastof themohicans] 25/1/2012 09:07

You need to go to the ASX and view the announcement there, or the company website because you are not getting to see the map of the block in the UK announcement.

Therefore you can't get to see the change that has occurred in the Southern extension of the block. Which in my view is really important going forward.

Going by what the company has said earlier about the extension area, I would expect them in next weeks announcement to say that the 3 Southern prospects could contain 25-30 Million barrels of recoverable 2P reserves.

The likelyhood of successful drilling will no doubt be high because of the prospects locations compared to the major fault and having known oil fields close by to the north and south along that major fault.

It was not that long ago that this share traded at over A$1 (on a consolidated basis) and as can be seen by all the broker reports it is regarded has significantly undervalued.

Once the flare permit is issued for J50 & J52 expect the price to fly, as 2 major shareholders own over 40% of the company and a holding of 300,000 shares would get you in the top 20 shareholders.

LOTM

[inv] 25/1/2012 08:52

This will continue to go up and up

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 08:30

If only I had bought! Way undervalued on P2 basis

[someuwin] 25/1/2012 08:09

Looks very good to me.

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 08:03

If the market grabs hold of this stock it could really fly

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 07:48

Cheap as chips but with political risk (just under $1/bbl)...silly price

[mirabeau] 25/1/2012 07:19

(HC):-

'The number being talked about was between 9 and 10 million barrels, taking the 2P number to 34+ Million barrels.

It is interesting that they found oil in 3 shallower sands currently called Z sands, maybe they will test them in this well once the main 90 day test is over!!

Now that would add more to the 2P number.

However what is of real interest to me and most people will have missed it, is the re-interpretation of the southern section of the block.

Yes go and compare it to the November oil barrel presentation. You will see that the main fault is now shown to run south south east right out the bottom of the new licence area, before it much more easterly only went about half way down the extension area before exiting to the east.

We now have 3 prospects on the extention area instead of 2. It will be very interesting to hear their views as to the likely size of the prospects compared to their earlier views.

So the new data must have surprised them quite a bit and as all 3 are all close to or run up against the same major fault, that seems to be the closure event for Akkar East. I would think the chances of further success on the block have been greatly enhanced.

Very interesting times ahead I think.

Can't wait to hear what they say in the next update'

[simon gordon] 16/1/2012 18:14

GCI:

Jupiter Energy

SPECULATIVE BUY

16/01/2012

Robert Tyerman

Jupiter Energy (JPRL) awaits imminent drilling results from Kazakhstan's Mangistau Basin, as it moots a £20 to £30m spring funding.

Steered by experienced Australian entrepreneur Geoff Gandar and backed by Waterford Group (whose investment sucesses include Emerald Energy and Dana Petroleum) as well as Soyuzneftegas (headed by Boris Yeltsin's erstwhile energy minister Yuri Shafranik), Jupiter wants to attract City institutions and accelerate drilling at Block 31 near the port of Aktau on the Caspian Sea, where trial production should start in a few weeks.

The company, which already boasts proven and prospective reserves and resources at Block 31 of some 170m barrels in this resource-rich area - with reserves of 24.2m barrels - is targeting potential production of 2,000 barrels of 'light, sweet, sulphur-free' oil a day by the end of this year, with a target of 4,000 barrels a day by 2015 from one field alone, Aktar East. Eventually established resources could be much larger.

With $5m cash at the end of 2011, Aussie-listed Jupiter, which came to AIM in November by introduction, is already selling some oil profitably at the wellhead at a local price of $42 a barrel, well below half its international price, and hopes to reach full-scale production for export next year, says Gandar, who points out its projects have access to key infrastructure and stresses the positive attitude of the present Kazakhstan regime. The shares, which have fallen from the equivalent of 60p last summer to 26.75p today, are not without risk, but could reward a bold punt.

[intouch] 13/1/2012 06:19

12th January 20129:00 am, Geoff Gander
Jupiter Energy One2One Investor

[ceohunter] 28/11/2011 16:21

The directors of WesternZagros Resources (TSX-V: WZR), New World Oil & Gas (AIM: NEW), Providence Resources (AIM: PVR) and Jupiter Energy Limited (AIM & ASX: JPRL) will be presenting in London on:

Thursday 12th January 2012

VENUE: Chesterfield Mayfair Hotel, 35 Charles Street, Mayfair, W1J 5EB (Charles Suite)

The presentations will start at 6:00pm and finish at approx 8:00pm. After the presentations are complete the directors will also be available to take questions during a free canapé and wine reception.

REGISTER YOUR ATTENDANCE HERE:

[lastof themohicans] 19/11/2011 18:10

I just posted this on one of the AUS BB sites and thought it would be worth posting here also.

I know it is quite a few months old, but it is well worth re-reading the Southern Cross research report from March 2011 on the Jupiter website.

It is very informative on several topics regarding Kazakhstan as well as highlighting the gearing that Jupiter has.

I would say to pay particular attention to page 8 of the report.

The gearing I'm about to talk about in a positive way, works the same way were things to turn out negatively, so should be thought through to.

The base case for the Southern Cross Valuation of a NPV of $222M uses an initial flow rate of 450 BOD per well and an oil price of $90 for Brent Crude.

In light of the J52 flow rates of 516 BOD on a 8mm choke and 849 BOD on a 12mm choke, as well as the increased thickness of the net-pay sands in J51 (which I expect to do as well as J52 if not slightly better) I feel this 450 BOD is on the low side and that something like a 540 BOD average initial flow rate is achieveable. That is a 20% increase from the 450 BOD figure.

I also think that a $90 a barrel average for brent crude over the next few years is on the low side and think an average of $108 a barrel over the next couple of years is a fairly realistic one, this again is a 20% increas on the figure used by Southern Cross.

I'm going to leave all their other figures as they were.

This change in oil price received will result in the NPV rising from $222M to $333M a 50% increase, the resultant increase in initial flow rates then increases this NPV further by 30% to $430M.

This near doubling of the NPV takes no account of the new lease extention, nor does it place any value on J53 proving up another section of the lease (even although J53 might prove upto another 8-10M barrels of reserves).

With 122M shares in issue if you count the options and convertible loan note, the NPV now works at around A$3.50 a share or £2.25 a share.

As you can see these numbers are multiples of the current share price and show just how undervalued the company is

Yes there will be further dilution as they need to raise cash to fund some of the development drilling and put in place infrastructure, but the higher the flow rates and the higher the oil price received in the near term the lower this amount will be.

There is also exploration upside that could lessen the effects of this dilution as well.

Seriously interesting times ahead I feel ....

LOTM

[excellance] 16/11/2011 16:38

take a look at OPHR also...