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[brwo349] 01/3/2024 14:04

Shooting Down 11 Jets In 11 Days, Ukraine Nudges The Russian Air Force Closer To Organizational Death-Spiral

Feb 29


The Russian air force lost another Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber on Thursday, the Ukrainian air force claimed. If confirmed, the Thursday shoot-down would extend an unprecedented hot streak for Ukrainian air-defenses.

The Ukrainian claim they’ve shot down 11 Russian planes in 11 days: eight Su-34s, two Sukhoi Su-35 fighters and a rare Beriev A-50 radar plane.

But those 11 claimed losses are worse than they might seem for the increasingly stressed Russian air force. In theory, the air arm has plenty more planes. In practice, the service is dangerously close to collapse.

Exactly how the Ukrainians are shooting down so many jets is unclear. It’s possible the Ukrainian air force has assigned some of its American-made Patriot missile launchers to mobile air-defense groups that move quickly in close proximity to the 600-mile front line of Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine, ambushing Russian jets with 90-mile-range PAC-2 missiles then swiftly relocating to avoid counterattack.

But the distance at which the Ukrainians shot down that A-50 on Friday—120 miles or so—hints that a longer-range missile system was involved. Perhaps a Cold War-vintage S-200 that the Ukrainian air force pulled out of long-term storage.

It also is apparent the Ukrainians have moved some of their two-dozen or so 25-mile-range NASAMS surface-to-air missile batteries closer to the front line. After all, the Russians found—and destroyed with a missile—their first NASAMS launcher near the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on or before Monday.

It’s possible Russian forces’ own actions have contributed to the spike in aviation losses. After finally defeating, at incredible cost in people and equipment, the ammo-starved Ukrainian garrison in the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine two weeks ago, the Russian army in Ukraine is advancing against other Ukrainian garrisons that also are running out of ammo—all thanks to Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress, who have been blocking further U.S. aid to Ukraine since October.

Sensing an opportunity, the Russian air force is flying more sorties, closer to the front line, lobbing glide-bombs to suppress Ukrainian troops. “The enemy has overcome the fear of using aviation directly over the battlefield,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies explained, “and although this results in the loss of aircraft, their ground forces gain a significant firepower advantage.”

This surge in Russian sorties presents Ukrainian air-defenders with more targets. So of course they’re shooting down more Russian planes.

It helps the Ukrainian effort that Russian pilots increasingly are blind to Ukrainian missile-launches. The Russian air force once counted on its nine or so active A-50 radar planes—organized into three, three-plane “orbits” in the south, east and north—to extend sensor coverage across Ukraine.

In damaging one A-50 in a drone strike last year and shooting down two more A-50s this year, the Ukrainians have eliminated a third of this sensor coverage, and created blind spots where Russian pilots might struggle to spot approaching missiles.

In any event, the consequences of the Ukrainians’ recent kills, for the Russians, are dire. The Russian air force is losing warplanes far, far faster than it can afford to lose them. Russia’s sanctions-throttled aerospace industry is struggling to build more than a couple of dozen new planes a year.

Escalating losses, exacerbated by anemic plane-production, almost certainly are increasing the stress on the surviving planes and crews. The Russian air arm isn’t yet in an organizational death spiral. But it’s getting closer.

The numbers tell the story. The Russian air force has acquired 140 of the twin-engine, two-seat, supersonic Su-34s. Counting this year’s unconfirmed shoot-downs, the air force has lost 31 of the Su-34s.

But 109 Su-34s still is a lot of Su-34s, right?

Wrong, according to Michael Bohnert, an engineer with the RAND Corporation in California. Shoot-downs represent “only a portion of total losses” of Russian fighters, Bohnert wrote back in August. “Overuse of these aircraft is also costing Russia as the war drags on.”

“In a protracted war, where one force tries to exhaust the other, it's the total longevity of the military force that matters,” Bohnert added. “And that's where the VKS”—the Russian air force—“finds itself now.”

Bohnert assumed the air force went to war two years ago with around 900 fighters and attack planes and, in the first 18 months of fighting, lost around 100 of them to Ukrainian action. The problem for the Russians—besides the losses—is that the requirement for fighter and attack sorties hasn’t decreased even as the fighter and attack inventory has decreased.

So those 800 remaining planes are flying more frequently in order to handle taskings the Kremlin once assigned to 900 planes. And that means more wear and tear, deepening maintenance needs and a growing hunger for increasingly hard-to-find spare parts—imperatives that effectively remove airframes from the front-line force.

“The extra hours that it's pressed its aircraft into service since February 2022 have effectively cost [the air force] an additional 27 to 57 aircraft in imputed losses,” Bohnert calculated. And that was before Russian aircraft losses spiked starting in December, and Russian sortie-rates also spiked as the battle for Avdiivka culminated.

In other words, the imputed losses likely are even higher. They, combined with recent shoot-downs, could mean the Russian air force is down to 700 flyable fighters and attack jets. Two hundred fewer than it had two years ago.

To avoid even greater wear and tear and steeper imputed losses as the shoot-downs continue, the Russian air force soon could face a hard choice: fly less often, or risk a downward spiral in readiness.

All that is to say that, if Bohnert is right, the Russian air campaign in Ukraine is unsustainable. And it becomes even less sustainable with every additional jet the Ukrainians shoot down.

[loganair] 01/3/2024 11:37

The MOEX Russia index traded slightly up at 3,260 on Friday, showing mixed dynamics over the week, as investors held their breath ahead of dividends season. IT sector rebounded, while construction & transport posted the largest declines.

Among individual stocks, GLTR (-3.4%), Raspadskaya (-2.6%), Samolet (-1.7%), and Polyus (-0.8%) were the main laggards. Raspadskaya shares were penalized by disapponting financial results, the decision not to distribute dividends in 2023, and the implemented duty on coal exports.

On the other hand, NLMK (2%), Yandex (1.9%), Positive Group (1.8%), Ozon (1.6%), and VTB (1.4%) advanced, with the latter benefiting from news about the potential resumption of dividend payments in 2024 instead of 2025. Also, VK added 1% after educational platform Skillbox (part of the VK holding) announced consideration holding an IPO.

Weekly, the index was set to end 0.5% higher.

[1998 crisis mk2] 01/3/2024 09:29

logliar wont need a lift as will have a free bus pass

[dil 21] 29/2/2024 23:39

Need a lift to the airport Log ?

Just ask.

[loganair] 29/2/2024 20:12

I'm buying the plot of land where I'm buying it because as I get older my body functions less well in high variations of temperature or either high or low temperatures.

If I could by in Russia with the same climatic conditions I would do so.

Also I think it important to have a foot in both camps. As I posted before, slowly I'm pulling out of the UK, with great sadness pulling out of the country of my birth due to the ever decreasing freedoms we now have in the UK - therefore my actions are speaking the same as my words.

[redhorse2020] 29/2/2024 20:06

Log, surely this begs the question as to why you are buying land in a western democracy rather than Putin's Russia? And indeed why you live here and not in Russia? Actions speak louder than words Log.

[neilyb675] 29/2/2024 19:14

The speech lasted a record two hours and was attended by all senior politicians, the CEOs of oil and gas firms Rosneft and Gazprom, as well as religious leaders of all denominations.

It was broadcast on giant screens across Moscow, and several cinemas in Russian cities reportedly screened it free of charge.

As expected, there was no mention of the death of Alexei Navalny, the opposition leader who died in a Siberian penal colony two weeks ago and who many saw as President Putin's greatest opponent.

Navalny, who will be buried in Moscow on Friday, died under circumstances yet to be fully established on 16 February. His widow Yulia has insisted that President Putin was responsible.

[loganair] 29/2/2024 19:05

The West is also not a Democracy except for maybe Switzerland.

It is the West and Europeans that are victims of the ever increasing oppression of their governments while Russians are becoming increasingly freer.

In my experience at the moment, the UK is one of the least free countries I know and financially is by far the least free, far less free then Russia is.


Over the past year my teen has been buying gold Sovereigns from one of the most well known bullion dealers in the UK. Last month Barclays froze their account asking the following to have the account unfrozen, plus other highly personal questions.

1. Where did they go to school.
2. What qualifications did they get at school.
3. A part from the UK, what other countries hold significance for them.
4. What is the current value of their bullion holdings and where is it stored.

As my teen has refused to answer such personal questions Barclays closed their bank account.

These questions would not be asked in a democratic country and definitely would not be asked by a Russian bank.

As for me, I have signed a contract to buy a plot of land in Portugal, I have known the estate agent for 2 years, have seen the plot several times, local solicitor has drawn up a contract which I signed and everything is going through legally.

I popped into the bank in the UK, not Barclays, to send the deposit. One hour later a person from the bank phoned me, then an extreme interrogation as to why I was buying the land, asking me personal questions about the solicitor, the estate agent which is one of the biggest in Portugal etc.

Even though everything is fully above board on both sides and everything is being done legally, the bank said they would not allow the funds to be sent as it was too high risk for them to do so, the bank has therefore taken away my financial freedom to do what I wish with my own money.

In both cases, both UK banks were acting like Stalinist tyrannical dictators.

[redhorse2020] 29/2/2024 18:34

Log, why do you always generalise about Russia and Russians? Unlike the 'west' that you seem to hate so much, Russia is not a democracy and therefore Putin does not represent Russian people as a whole. In fact the Russian people are also victims of the current oppression and certainly not my enemy.

[1998 crisis mk2] 29/2/2024 18:13

As expected the north korean cpu is even worse than the previous MSCT cpu

[loganair] 29/2/2024 16:39

Most posters represent the view that the Russians are the Wests evil enemies to be destroyed while I represent the opposing view that the West and Russia should negotiate and try to live in harmony otherwise there'll be the most terrible war.

The West and Russia can live together on this planet in peace, is also better economically for all of us.

There are too many posters on ADVFN who are petty and cruel with their name calling and toxic personal comments of other posters who just have an alternate or opposing view.

[loganair] 29/2/2024 11:01

The MOEX Russia index rose 0.5% 3,245 on Thursday, extending its gains for the second session, as investors awaited more corporate results and eyed the speech of the country's President Putin.

Today Polus will be presenting its financial statements for 2023 and Raspadskaya will be holding the meeting of Board members to decide on dividends. Among sectors, construction and transport posted solid increases, while IT declined.

As for individual stocks, Samolet (3.3%), Inter (2.1%), Polymetal (1.9%), and GLTR (1.1%) were the best performers. The former reported a 15.7% growth in its net profit yoy in 2023.

On the negative side, PIK (-1.2%), Rostelecom (-0.7%), Rosseti (-0.7%), and Ros Agro (-0.6%) dropped. Also, Novatek traded in the red, as the launch of Arctic LNG-2 project was in jeopardy due to sanctions on LNG tankers.

[dil 21] 28/2/2024 21:45

Yeah I heard that too log … and UK was going to take back control of the US , Canada , Australia , India and a host of other countries.

[masergt] 28/2/2024 21:07

lol. When did you ever get anything right?

[loganair] 28/2/2024 16:07

Since Macron of France mentioned about NATO troops going into the Ukraine, there is more and more talk by the Poles in Poland, that the Polish Government will move to put in a so called peace keeping force in the 5 Western Ukrainian Oblasts (Volyn, Rivne, Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk) that use to belong to Poland before WW2.

Hungary, Slovakia and Romania take the parts that use to belong to them.

If Ukraine keeps going the way it's going, in the next couple of years it will end up being only 20% of the size it is today, a very poor non-viable country.

[loganair] 28/2/2024 11:32

Net profit of Sberbank (JEMA's 3rd largest Russian holding) under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) surged more than five-fold in 2023 to a record level for the group of more than 1.5 trillion rubles ($16.3 bln), while in Q4 Russia’s largest lender earned 359.7 bln rubles ($3.9 bln), according to Summary Annual Consolidated Financial Statements.

"Sber net profit in 4Q 2023 rose to 359.7 bln rubles. For 12M 2023, Sber earned 1,508.6 bln rubles, increasing net profit for the year by more than 5x y/y," the bank said.

[loganair] 28/2/2024 11:27

I don't understand Europe at all???

The united States is doing far, far better then Europe because it has it's own cheap energy, its own cheap gas, cheap oil and cheap coal while Europe allowed the United States to blow up their cheap energy, their cheap gas so Europe now has to import far more expensive LNG from the United States.

Over the past 1,000 years it's all been about cheap energy...cheap energy = prosperity for the people and over the past 3 years Europe has allowed the United States to destroy Europe's sources of cheap energy.......WHY???

[loganair] 28/2/2024 10:22

The MOEX Russia index rose 0.6% to around 3,240 on Wednesday, following the muted session, as markets digested fresh corporate updates.

The top gainers were construction companies LSR (6.2%), Etalon (5.4%), and PIK (4.3%). Additionally, oil and gas sector posted strong wins, led by Gazprom (1.9%), Tatneft (1.2%), and Lukoil (0.9%). Meanwhile, Sberbank advanced by modest 0.4%, having reported a record net profit of RUB 1508.6 billion in 2023, 5 times more than in 2022.

On the side of losses, Detskiy Mir fell by 3.3% after it was announced the shares would stop trading on Moscow Exchange in August 2024. Also, Alrosa (-1.7%) and Fix Price (-1.3%) dropped. Alrosa's net profit plunged by 15.2% yoy in 2023, while Fix Price's net profit decreased by 8% compared to 2022.

[loganair] 27/2/2024 09:21

The MOEX Russia index edged above the flatline to hover above the 3,215 mark on Tuesday, holding the sharp rebound from the prior session as markets continued to assess the impact of new sanctions from the US on the Russian economic backdrop.

Metallurgical companies held their gains from the start of the week after the batch of sanctions from Washington refrained from targeting aluminum and nickel industries, contrary to what was previously feared, to erase export concerns for key players and lifting Rusal, Mechel, and Nornickel stocks.

Still, plunging capacity pressures in Russian refiners drove Moscow to ban gasoline exports from March to September to protect domestic fuel prices. Rosneft, Lukoil, and Tatneft traded in the red.

[1998 crisis mk2] 26/2/2024 15:12

Russia Struggling to Secure Loan from China, Putin Ally Admits


Moscow has been engaged in "long term" discussions with Beijing but has been so far unable to strike a deal with Beijing in securing loans in the Chinese currency, the yuan, Russia's finance minister has said.

The comments by Anton Siluanov come as Russia seeks to pivot away from the West due to sanctions imposed by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine which has led to a huge boom in trade with China.

Moscow has been hoping to attract money from Chinese investors to offset Western capital which has disappeared with the measures aimed at isolation the Russian economy from the global financial system. But Siluanov told state news agency RIA that no agreement had yet been reached.

"Negotiations with Chinese partners have been going on for a long time", he told the outlet, "so far there is no decision." The latest round of talks between the countries took place at the end of last year, Siluanov said, without specifying whether progress had been made.

[loganair] 26/2/2024 09:38

The MOEX Russia index rose by over 2% to hover above the 3,200 mark on Monday, partially recovering from the falls in the prior week as markets assessed the impact of fresh sanctions on the Russian economy. The US announced sanctions against a batch of Russian companies and individuals following the death of opposition leader Alexey Navalny, but refrained from targeting key industries from Russia’s main commodity exports. The gentler-then-expected sanctions list triggered a rally for Russian equities, with gains recorded across the board in the Moscow Exchange.

Rusal and NorNickel each added close to 2% as the aluminum and nickel sectors escaped penalties. The expectations of steady government revenues from commodity exports in turn lifted the energy sector, with Transneft, Russneft, and Rosneft all jumping more than 2.5%.

[corrientes1] 25/2/2024 12:52

and how is Stalin, sorry Putin, doing these days ? It's Stalin, not Peter The Great that Putin wants to emulate and he's going about it the 'right' way.