Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 07/1/2020 23:55

One of the challenges holding an India focussed fund is on a reduction
of equity market liquidity, India listed equities tend to be hit particularly
hard. At least from my experience.

[pjw956] 07/1/2020 22:22

Note for existing holders...…

Tender Offer In November 2013, the Board announced that it planned to introduce an obligation on the Board to make atender offer to shareholders at NAV less costs if, over the three years from 1st October 2013, the Company underperformed its benchmark. Over the three years to 30th September 2016, the Company significantly outperformed its benchmark index and therefore no such tender offer was made. However, the Board renewed its commitment to shareholders by undertaking to offer a tender for up to 25% of the issued share capital, at NAV less costs, should the Company underperform the benchmark index over the three years to 30th September 2019. Unfortunately the outperformance of the benchmark over the past year was not sufficient to achieve outperformance over that three year period, with the Company under-performing by some 15.4%. Therefore all shareholdersare beingoffered the opportunity to tender up to 25% of their holding in the Company.Details are set out in the circular whichwill be sent as a separate document to the annual report. The Directors do not intend to tender their own shares.

[essentialinvestor] 07/1/2020 01:22

In terms of NAV GBP to INR is also a factor, nearing 95 level again.

[loganair] 06/1/2020 22:09

While forecasts of India's long-term economic trajectory are promising, growth in the past year has been much slower than many had predicted. Observers had anticipated the nation's economic growth would be strengthened by the re-election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who demonstrated in his first term a focus on modernising the economy including through a clampdown on corruption, a simplification of the country's arcane tax system, the introduction of a goods and services tax and making India a serious destination for foreign investment.

"It hasn't really gone that way," Dr McKay said. "They won the general election, but the economy is not purring along, it is stuttering.

India's economy slowed for the sixth quarter in a row in the July-September quarter, with GDP growth dipping to a six-year low of 4.5 per cent.

[essentialinvestor] 06/1/2020 16:05

Added a very small amount.

If equity volatility continues for EM's then this may be hit hard.

[skyship] 06/1/2020 08:56

Looks to be heading down to the 700p level again. Question is whether to buy a few around that level; or again hold off for 650p. Global macro may dictate...

[essentialinvestor] 06/1/2020 08:45

Higher oil price is particularly ugly for the Indian economy atm,
already dealing with sharply slowing growth.

[chc15] 20/9/2019 14:58

Yes up big, it was a buying opp!

[sllab101] 20/9/2019 12:36

India slashes corporate taxes to give a boost to economy

[loganair] 18/9/2019 08:22

Also, doesn't help that JII do not pay a dividend like many other JP Morgan Trusts do, even if it is just a small one.

[chc15] 17/9/2019 11:30

Now under 7, buying opp soon..

[loganair] 25/6/2019 14:40

India’s economy needs to grow at 8-10 per cent annually if good jobs have to be provided to those joining the workforce, eminent economist Arvind Panagariya has said, emphasising that an export-led growth is very critical for creation of good jobs in the country.

Panagariya, who served as the first Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog from January 2015 to August 2017, underscored that for trade to grow, the country has to be open. As tariffs are going up on many different items, he said the “whole idea of turning back to import substitution turns the clock back (for India). It is on the back of trade liberalisation and very rapid export expansion during the 2000s onwards that the (Indian) economy really began to grow at this very rapid rate.”

“We have to return to becoming an export-led growth country,” Panagariya, delivering the keynote address at a panel discussion on ‘Economic Priorities for the New Government’ of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said on Monday.

He said that the Indian economy grew at a “very impressive” rate of about 7 per cent plus during the 15-year period from 2003-04 onwards. In the last five years of Modi’s first term as Prime Minister, the growth rate was a robust 7.5 per cent. “But we need to get to 8-10 per cent if good jobs are going to be provided. The export-led growth is also very critical for good jobs, he added.

He stressed that there is not a single country which has grown on a sustained basis at rates of 8-10 per cent for 2-3 decades without very rapid growth in trade. He further emphasised that by increasing exports, imports will also automatically grow “because the whole point of exporting is so that you will import in return.”

Panagariya added that he has always maintained that India’s problem is not unemployment but low wages. “The debate hovers around the unemployment rate - even if you take the latest unemployment rate which is seen as the highest ever in 45 years at 6 per cent. Unemployment is not the huge problem in India, low wages is, he said.

He elaborated that a lot of the employment in India is self-employment. “So about 44 per cent in agriculture and then of the remaining almost 75 per cent of the employment is in these companies which have five workers or less. They are hardly companies. What that translates into is a very low level of productivity, very low level of wages. These are what are called the mom-and-pop enterprises, he said. He asserted that unfortunately in India, there is a huge preoccupation with micro and small enterprises and there are hardly any medium and large firms.

“We need to have medium and large firms. This is where the whole link to exports is very important, he said adding that it is the medium and large firms that give boost to export activity and compete with the best in the world. Going forward, India also needs cleaning up of the Non-Performing Assets and in the next five years, privatisation of banks has to be on the government’s agenda.

Panagariya also made a strong case for creating Shenzhen-style Autonomous Employment Zones that create zones of 500 square kilometres or more along the coast that are characterized by highly entrepreneur-friendly regime with respect to land, labour and international trade to boost economic growth in the years to come.

[loganair] 20/6/2019 15:00

Ian Cowie: India eventually provided my first ten-bagger:


Hard though it may be for battered investors in Britain to believe right now but political events can actually boost share prices. For example, take my first ten-bagger and longest-held share, JPMorgan Indian (JII).

After a troubled period recently, in which this investment trust made little or no progress, falling by 3% in the 12 months to March, 2018, before rising by less than 7% in the year to last March, the shares have bounced by more than 10% in the last couple of months.

The explanation is that fears the business-friendly government of Narendra Modi was doomed proved misplaced and pessimists looked foolish when his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was re-elected by the world’s largest democracy last month.

More importantly for investors seeking to buy a share in the future, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development reckons India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world and may become its largest one within a decade.

That confidence is cautiously shared by Kristy Fong, manager of the Aberdeen New India (ANII) investment trust. ANII delivered total returns of 9% over the last year, 100% in the last five years and an eye-stretching 238% during the last decade, according to independent statisticians Morningstar.

Fong said: ‘Continuation of Modi’s structural reform agenda would provide a lift to the economy and corporate India.

‘We expect the government to continue pouring money into affordable housing and transport infrastructure, which bodes well for the cement sector, real estate and potentially rural consumption. All this could provide a cushion to external headwinds, including deterioration in the US-China trade conflict and any surge in oil prices.

‘Political continuity only reinforces our positive views on India, whose growth prospects are underpinned by a young population and expanding middle class. We see a huge opportunity to invest in companies with pricing power that sell to Indian consumers.’

But it is likely to be a bumpy ride along the way. For example, India Capital Growth (IGC) favours medium-sized, family-owned firms for greater hopes of gains but has shrunk shareholders’ capital by 10% in the last year after delivering 70% total returns over the last five years and 91%, mostly under other management, during the last decade.

David Cornell, the manager of IGC, emphasised the upside: ‘India has a large population with a low dependency ratio, but key to maintaining growth will be cultivating skilled labour.

‘Recently it has welcomed a reverse brain drain as young professionals educated or working abroad are moving back home. Management is also very strong, demonstrated by America’s Fortune 500 where, out of 75 foreign chief executives, 10 are from India, far exceeding other emerging markets.

‘Most importantly, this is reflected in the Indian equity market which has compounded in at 12.8% over the last 10 years, compared with 3.1% in China and 2.8% in Mexico.’

My own portfolio reflects that progress, with shares in JII soaring by 88% over the last five years and by 148% during the last decade. Despite that, they remain priced at a 9% discount to net asset value (NAV). Better still, the same fund managers - Rajendra Nair and Rukhshad Shroff - have been at the helm since 2003.

Your humble correspondent is jolly glad I bought shares in what was then Fleming Indian in June, 1996, at 66p each. They are trading at 751p now and Modi's fiscal and regulatory reforms may mean they have further to go. Either way, his electoral success shows that investors should not always fear the worst; political events can sometimes surprise on the upside.

[solisla] 05/6/2019 22:20

Spot on Bapodra Investments & Loganair re development and infrastructure in India. You may want to look at Infrastructure India (IIP)

[loganair] 04/6/2019 11:18

May saw the strongest improvement in the health of India’s industrial sector in three consecutive months. The growth was driven by a significant upturn in demand for consumer goods.

Marking a recovery in the country’s manufacturing sector, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) expanded last month, rising to 52.7 against 51.8 in April.

The latest results indicate the 22nd consecutive month that the country’s manufacturing PMI remained above the 50-point mark.

The survey also revealed increasing employment. When it comes to inflation, analysts say that the price pressures remained relatively muted, with goods producers leaving selling prices unchanged on the back of a mild rise in overall cost burdens.