Jpmorgan Indian Investment Share Discussion Threads

[davidbh] 02/2/2006 22:00

easy74..I agree with all that Mark says.
So what are the elephant traps ?
1. The premium of JII to NAV is -6.8 (NII is cheaper; so is IGC.. etc)
2, Global events will v. severely alter India's PE =17.5 (as against UK = 14.8 and Us =18.8)- events such as avian flu, hostilities, reduction in FII owing to these factors, US recession.
My view -in next 6 months - little likelihood of major event; some risk of Indian stock exch. correction (October last JII corrected 16% but recovered rapidly due to continued high India growth rate).

[easy74] 02/2/2006 17:36

markth....thanks for the indepth analysis....much appreciated.
Will look to buy tomorrow.

[markth] 02/2/2006 16:21

To answer the question about where the growth is coming from. Mostly from the IT/Outsourcing sector, which was about 28% last year. In terms of the overall Indian economy it is small beer. Agriculture only grew about 2%. If the Govt can get their act together on this there could be some considerable upside. Last the traditional heavy industries like cars, construction, engineering did well. Banks and Insurance made some good gains but I don't think JII has much of a position in them.

Indian really could use some of her own oil. The price is hurting her at the moment.

[markth] 02/2/2006 16:13

Well lemme have a go at that. Priced on a historical earnings basis, Indian stocks are no longer cheap; this portfolio has a PE of about 20. But given that the earnings growth of the invested companies has continued, there seems no reason why we cannot push onwards to say a PE of 25, given the premium such growth ought to attract.

The Indian economy grew 8% last year, the (Govt) forecast for this year is only slightly down on that. Their balance of trade and repayments are a wee bit on the nasty side but provided they don't do anything silly like raising interest rates quickly or letting the exchange rate swing madly this should be manageable.

Another driver is FII (Foreign Inward Investment). This has created a lot of liquidity in the market and has been good for valuations.

In summary then....

1) There is plenty demand for this stock and the stocks in which it is invested.
2) There is lots of liquidity (inflows) supporting the Indian market.
3) Growth prospects of the invested companies continue to be impressive.
4) Existing valuations based on fundamentals do not look too high yet.

IMO I can't see it falling back in the next six months. You would need some external shock or economic event to derail it.

[easy74] 02/2/2006 14:20

guys, Just a quick question. Is it worth investing in JII for a 6 months at today's price. Views welcome.

Will there be a correction due to the NAV and share price

[sunburst] 31/1/2006 19:24

It's good we had 21.7 % of the fund in info technology last month.
Surely this sector must be the fastest growing part of the Indian economy?

[knowing] 31/1/2006 15:00

Check it here

[hursheel] 31/1/2006 14:55

what r the holdings of this fund

[huttonr] 31/1/2006 09:56

Mangal - thanks for reply - it looks as if you may have been thinking the same way as me - tho' I was seeing the NIIW pricing as being a bit high relative to the shares, especially at the moment. I expect the high JII premium to last a bit longer until they sort out their legal problems on issuing new shares.

[huttonr] 30/1/2006 18:32

Mangal - re your move into warrants - very bullish - are you seeing this as a short term move or looking for the next year or so?

[grippa] 30/1/2006 15:43

I agree with Mark. I think we have already seen the recent correction, not very severe but forecasts could not be more optimistic for India. Think we will not have any serious correction for a while. IMHO.

[markth] 30/1/2006 15:22

FWIW I think this will run up for a while more.

[mangal] 30/1/2006 13:51

I recently sold most of my JIIs & moved part of the proceeds into NIIw & IGCw.

[royalt] 30/1/2006 12:09

Thats what im afraid of too. Reluctant to go long despite it being up almost every day.

[knowing] 30/1/2006 12:06

Thanks chippy

[markth] 30/1/2006 08:51

Topped up this morning.

[chippy2] 29/1/2006 23:36

Knowing ,

IC Headline reads, Arise India.

"Although China's rise may have generated more newsflow,
India is a smarter bet in the long run"

A good read worth getting.

[knowing] 27/1/2006 12:00

Seems to be an article in IC this week on India. Anyone have a copy ?

[knowing] 27/1/2006 08:33

Higher we cry