@Chrisgb - I think there are actually a good number of people. There is a decent business in there somewhere, however it will never come to light under the current management and board.
The Chairman and the Board are stale and wholly unsuited to drive this forward and the C Suite is insanely overpaid and if truth be told unqualified to run this business.
The solution is pretty simple. Cut costs, streamline R&D efforts, give up on braking in to the AD market and focus on the 400 other types of dementia which is very lightly server by the market. |
Who would want to take this over....?? |
There is the trading update ....
In summary, soft this year, soft next year and a feeling that it might be a little less soft the year after next. Only hard forecasts are losses and negative cash flow .... the word profit was not included in the TU. Pretty Grim. |
Trading update soon..........? |
 I think no one cares because this contract is to be executed over 4 years. They are currently recognising their order book at @ 650k to 750K per month. This 4 year contract will only lead to a revenue recognition of @30k per month (I am working on a straight line recognition in order to make the point) over a 4 year period.
To grow revenue they need a lot more of these medium sized contracts or a couple of very large ones and they need them soon. It is clear to everyone that they need to cut their inflated C suite pay and the board costs and they need to make the breakthrough in AD, as these are by far the largest and longest trials in the mainstream CNS trials arena and would be transformative. However, it is very, very difficult to break in and will take considerable time.
In the meantime they are treading water at best and the prospect of little to no revenue growth, continued cash drawdowns and ongoing losses are very real until they start winning, either in volume or size, significant contracts. |
Nice to see contract news.......not that anyone seems to care....! |
@Jane Deer.
Any market surveillance in AD would be to identify ARIA H and ARIA E in patients (not as a diagnostic) that are given monoclonal antibodies that clear Amyloid Beta. The PDUFA date for a full approval of Lecanamab is 6th July and at that point we will know, if approved, what requirements the FDA will impose for market surveillance. If they were to win anything in the near term, this is the opportunity, particularly as they have provided the Assessa platform for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML)in conjunction with Biogen, who is also the co-developer of Lecanamab. So you would think this would represent the most likely live opportunity.
That said Eisai and Biogen have been preparing for this approval and subsequent role out for years now and have put in place the infrastructure to support and monitor this rollout. I would be very surprised indeed, if now at this late stage, they announce something exclusive with Ixico for Lecanamab. As you might be aware, last year Adhuelm also a Biogen AD Thereaputic, was approved by the FDA last year. Although it has been a complete disaster commercially, there was post market surveillance requirements imposed by the FDA and I note that their was no post market surveillance contract for Ixico.
There is a possibility they could win something with Lilly for Donanemab, which will likely be approved and rolled out 1H next year. However, as with Biogen/Eisai, given the scale of preparation that goes in to a drug launch of this type, I think we would know by now if they were likely to gain a contract here.
My feeling is in the longer run they might pick up some work in this regard by contracting with individual hospitals or health systems. However, this is likely 2 or more years away and it will be slow to build, in particular as they have no healthcare sales network.
While a rabbit could be pulled from the hat, I think the reality is that the next 12 to 18 months are going to be difficult for Ixico. If they can shepherd their cash then there is a good possibility of salvation after that. If they cannot, the board and the C suite are crazily paid, then they are going to need to raise a decent (in comparison to market cap) amount of cash with all of the share price pain that entails. |
40 Fathoms
I could not agree with you more. Ixico has been talking up the AD opportunity for a couple of years but so far, Ixico has not shown that it can win meaningful contracts in the AD space. On the recent ImC call, Ixico said they were seeing if they could win a "market surveillance" contract for one of the approved FDA AD drugs. If they could this would potentially be a game-changer. Obviously, as an outsider, I have no idea whether this is possible but I suspect it is a bit of a long-shot and does not seem consistent with the previous strategy of trying to win Phase I and Phase II trials and hope (on playing the numbers game) that one or two of them will turn into Phase IIIs. |
This is a positive, as it will allow them to tread water for a while and stop their book to bill ratio turning negative. However to create forward momentum within the business they need 2 or more contracts of a similar in size before the end of this year.
It should be noted, that once again this contract is in Huntingdon's, a condition where they are already dominant and which is seeing limited growth in pharma investment. Ixico will only be truly transformed once they make a commercial breakthrough in Alzheimer's. To the extent they are able to do this, it would appear that this is still a number of years away. |
Nice to see a contract....... |
Oh Dear, looks like Trouble Ahead!!
Risk increasing Rapidly as large orders not coming soo enough.
Waiting !! |
IXI expected to exceed expectations as demand for its AI Product is huge.
Share price needs to get above 33p to reduce takeover target potential.
Great to add at these levels which wont stay at this level for long. As they say cheap as chips after the results today. Rapid rises in the pipeline. I say add if you can at these ridiculous levels.
Happy Days Ahead |
Nothing new, drawing down cash reserves, as things currently stand they are confirming they will be unprofitable in 2023 and 2024. They have to start winning large contracts in the next 6 months or they are in real trouble. If they don't I reckon at the end of this year the auditor may make them take an impairment for a good part of the large development costs they are capitalising.
If as halfpenny suggests investors are indeed circulating they seem to be doing it without actually buying the shares. Without one or two large contract wins there is the possibility in the not too distant future, that we are going to see 15p or lower, in my opinion. |
Now IXI have a strong platform with cash in the bank, AI products and a strong order book for 2023 and great outlook for 2024.
IXI with strong AI products being released puts them ahead of the market.
Investors now circulating IXI at these levels.
Future looking great for IXI. |
@Arther_Lame_stock - In my opinion you are spot on, before it becomes a buy one needs to see something significant change with the business. Can happen and there is a decent business in there wanting to get out, but until we see a significant shift of some type, the business will be doing well just to tread water. The two easy to predict events might be.
1) A complete clear of the board and senior management, who are crazily overpaid for a business of this size and are basically not really up to the task. Need to strip out costs, refocus the business, prioritise the R&D spend, reinvest some of the savings on additional BD resources in the US and focus on becoming profitable at the levels of revenue they are currently enjoying.
2) They need to pick up some larger Alzheimer's trial contracts (Phase II and Phase III). They are basically not a player in this market currently, despite the markets perception of them being leaders in this market (Huntingdon's is where they have leadership), they have the technology and a decent offering but it will take time for them to meaningfully break in to AD and Parkinson's.
I have always hoped that they would be able to ink some healthcare related deal that would help with detecting and predicting ARIA related associated with the new AD treatments that are now coming to market. However it seems that opportunity may have passed them buy, Biogen (given they use IXIs Assess platform in MS) would have been an obvious candidate, however they seem to be developing an in-house product. |
I wouldn't be tempted just yet, I expect them to lose money this year and possibly next. Even when they have reported a profit it's due to capitalising a large amount of costs hence cashflow is poor. |
Looks interesting here........ |
IXI now likely being pursued by a couple on investors who missed out on Medica Group Plc today.
Investors now circulating IXI at these levels. Only large deals with a share price above 33p can keep them away.
Future looking great for IXI. |
IXI becomes a Takeover opportunity at these levels with a 80p price tag based on valye and future AI products.
How Soon How Much so get ready.. |
Trading update very positive on Pipeline sales with great results for 2023/4.
IXI with large order flow so expect RNS soon. They have a record breaking year ahead and great growth as stated recently.
Future looking bright for IXI.
Get ready and How High as the can move up rapidly as we get RNS flowing soon
Bright Future.. |
@halfpenny
Can you tell us the source of your information regarding future orders/"great deals" and which of the income streams they relate to?
Do you have a steer on trials coming on line - or potential AI analytics demand - or the like?
And the price increases you refer to - are these related to what IXI charges customers or it the share price? |
I agree with more orders in the pipeline.
Maybe a Takeover still on the cards as IXICO price levels are attractive at the current levels.
IXI future is very bright so get ready for dramatic price increases ahead.
Following yesterday RNS Expect further RNS soon on great Deals. Get ready for a rapid rise as demand increases.
Also IXI are at Target takeover levels. |
As referred at post 333
Report per website: ""The accurate, consistent, and scalable estimation of cerebellar atrophy would be highly beneficial for clinical trials in multiple system atrophy (MSA)1-3. This work performs validation of a fully automatic volume change
workflow in MSA using Jacobian integration from non-linear warp-fields estimated with a convolutional neural
network (CNN)-based 3D T1- weighted (T1W) image analysis workflow.
The developed framework provides a fully automatic solution for estimating cerebellar volume change with increased sensitivity over comparable methods. Additionally, the framework is flexible and highly scalable, and
as such has the potential to be advantageous for future clinical trials"
My prompt for GPT3.5: What does [it] mean?
GPT output:
"This paragraph describes a study aimed at developing and validating a computer-based method for accurately and consistently estimating changes in the size of the cerebellum, a part of the brain, in patients with a neurodegenerative disorder called multiple system atrophy (MSA). The researchers used a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based 3D T1-weighted (T1W) image analysis workflow to estimate cerebellar volume changes over time in MSA patients. They found that this approach was fully automatic and more sensitive than comparable methods. The researchers suggest that this framework has the potential to be beneficial for future clinical trials of MSA treatment."
I can understand/appreciate that - but don't know if GPT is correct. If it is, I suggest the company use it to help non-scientists.
GPT doesn't refer to "Jacobian integration" in its re-write so I asked it what it was, (assuming I was a year 13 student).
It answered:
"Jacobian integration is a mathematical technique that is used to measure the changes in the shape and size of an object over time. Specifically, it calculates how much a certain point in an object has moved from its original position to its new position, as well as how much the surrounding areas of that point have changed.
To help you visualize this, imagine a rubber ball that is being squished and stretched in different directions. If you were to pick a point on the surface of the ball and track how it moves as the ball changes shape, that's essentially what Jacobian integration does. It measures the amount of deformation or stretching that occurs at that point and calculates how much the point has moved in the process. This technique can be used in a variety of applications, such as analysing changes in the brain over time, or tracking the movement of fluids in a system."
Now THAT explanation with an analogy is clever and useful.
I am posting this because I believe that understanding at least an outline of the company's progress and skillsets is "on topic" for investors.
I hope you agree. |
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