IS Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[carwhite] 05/6/2010 10:27

Nawh I will use it to buy an ISPH share.

[red ninja] 05/6/2010 10:01

Carwhite,

Alright if I see you in the streets you can have 50p for a cup of tea.

[clogue] 05/6/2010 09:58

gogoneko, obviously you do your research into this company and I for one certainly appreciate the information posted but why don't you put these concerns directly to the company ?(and let us know what they say)
A few months ago I spoke to the FD and brought up the matter of FDA approval for Variquel and the view was that ISPH had sold the US rights and it wasn't a major issue for the company. I did mention future royalties and again the response was that this was not a big part of their projected revenue.
In the results they did emphasise that they were concentrating on european markets and I take it that this was the reason for selling the US rights for Variquel (Lucassin)
I must admit that I was not happy with the "profits will be ahead of expectations" nonsense and will be keeping a closer watch on the company.
As I said in my previous post,I am happy with the results and the progress of the company. I consider this to be a low risk (famous last words) business model which could easily produce a 50% increase in eps this year.

[gogoneko] 04/6/2010 00:08

There's also the issue of transparency.

Why didn't the ISPH directors inform all investors of the failed Lucassin NDA submission when it was known to Orphan back in November? In December they wrote : "In the US, the FDA has issued a Complete Response Letter for Lucassin (US tradename for Variquel). Our US partners plan to meet with the FDA in the coming
months.". Why not provide an explanation, or at least why not inform all investors so that everyone could have offloaded in anticipation of a 30-40% slump in the shares price! Also there was no update announced on the recent agreement between Orphan and Ikaria regaring Ikaria's takeover of the NDA process - have further problems arisen?

Considering the royalty revenues from Lucassin form part of ISPH's projected revenues, investors should be updated on progress, or lack of it, as soon as it becomes available.

[boll] 03/6/2010 21:18

Actually results were quite good - Last year contained about US$1.2m of gains due to sale of North American rights for one of the drugs. Don't forget also the launch costs were high this year as the drugs launched in many European countries.

Two areas of concern

a.) Potential share issues or placings
b.) Staging of deferred payments for acquisitions.

Set against this the company is profitable and also the outlook is good over the next year so we should see further progress - I am surprised that the share price dipped.

[clogue] 03/6/2010 16:50

I agree with most of what has been said here since the results.
The only point I would take slight issue with is the discontinued acquisition. I was actually quite heartened that the company appears to be prepared to walk away from a deal,and although the £400k is a loss,it may have been worse if the deal had gone ahead.
A company with a business model like ISPH has to show that it is prepared to walk and this will be known by other companies in future negotiations.
Good solid progress though and happy to hold.

[carwhite] 03/6/2010 09:54

50p!!!!!!!!!!!!

[steeplejack] 03/6/2010 09:34

Slightly reworded my posting as you were contributing gogoneko.I think we're in agreement.It looks promising to me but i don't think you'll see a pound for well over a year or more,especially in markets averse to illiquid small company shares.

[gogoneko] 03/6/2010 09:28

The company is thankfully still progressing but there are disappointments and they do seem to be over-egging themselves in their RNSs. This year management have blown £375k on a discontinued acquisition and last year £526k was lost because of supplier problems. It's starting to look like either complacency or poor decision-making and hopefully this won't be repeated.

[steeplejack] 03/6/2010 09:17

The 20th April close period update, which stated that results were "materially ahead of expectations" is frankly misleading and on this BB there was much discussion about the statement at the time.The debate was re the GBP0.7m credit from the Volplex and Isoplex Distribution and Sale Agreement being included that flattered the performance.Was the trading performance really that good?


The fact is that the trading profit performance of the group was perhaps marginally ahead of expectations even excluding the exceptional credit but eps per share were certainly NOT!.Edison were looking for around 8.3p but i don't think even they had factored in the £0.4m exceptional transaction cost or the size of the swing round in the tax charge of well over a million.The bottom line is, that rather unkindly, eps only emerge at 7.3p which is below eps forecasts made by Edison a year ago.Yet the company is making good progress.It should however be more careful in phrasing its statements in future.

[gogoneko] 02/6/2010 16:52

dealit,

Unless the results were good, which they weren't, they were ok, then traders were always likely to pull the price back.

I would however expect a few of the usual misleading post-results write-ups by the tipsters though so that could bring the price back up, but I'd expect any recovery based on that to be increasingly weak as it's a bit deja-vu. I expect it'll be down in the 50's again in due course.

[dealit] 02/6/2010 16:47

Well I was wrong share price down, the only thing I can think is mm`s playing games with the share price they may have a large order to fill

[steeplejack] 02/6/2010 07:44

"Variquel (Haemopressin) launched in 13 European markets with year on year
sales up 80%
· Aloxi revenues up 84% and now recommended in key international cancer
guidelines "

This year the push will be behind aquoral and episil.
Good cash generation.The trading performance is very sound. Exceptional 0.7m above the line in respect of volpex etc but thereagain the tax charge has, as expected,become a payable item. This looks very solid.

Note, after all the chatter last month, that the gross profit EXCLUDING EXCEPTIONALS OF £0.7M is tidily up.Up 12%

Gross profit up 22% to GBP8.7m* (2009: GBP7.1m), product gross profit up
12% to GBP8.0m (2009: GBP7.1m)

[dealit] 02/6/2010 07:19

Great set of results IMHO, share price should move north today.

[red ninja] 01/6/2010 18:03

It's buying before tommorrow's results....

[the_hedge] 01/6/2010 13:46

it aint doin too badly today.

[carwhite] 31/5/2010 19:57

lololololololol

[boll] 28/5/2010 01:10

Results next week - a good set supported by a good forecast will surely send this share price over the £1 barrier

[the_hedge] 25/5/2010 18:29

The share price seems to have remained pretty resilient, considering on a day when the main market has been hit quite a bit wouldn't you say?

[carwhite] 23/5/2010 10:22

lolololol don't be impatient wait for 50p first.

[red ninja] 15/5/2010 18:34

Carwhite you're a damm ramper

Ramping them all the way up from 50p to 60p

Shame on you !

[the_hedge] 11/5/2010 13:56

ahh, must've misread that bit ;-)

[carwhite] 11/5/2010 11:29

Nope as said its 60p first then down to 50p

[the_hedge] 10/5/2010 13:19

...timing.

meant to say Carwhite, I thought you had suggested 50p as being a/your target/fair price?
Does this mean you've revised it upwards now?