Ironridge Resources Share Discussion Threads

[value viper] 30/9/2021 17:31

really deserves to be nearer 30p imv - the deal with Piedmont is excellent
i suspect the BOD won't believe the current price either - not helped by a persistent seller (a PI or 2 thats holds loads my guess) - it's like it needs another 'slam dunk' announcement to re-rate it - not enough buying still...nor enough marketing / PR still

[ukgeorge] 28/9/2021 14:20

Surely due a spike to 24p area soon......

[ukgeorge] 21/9/2021 12:40

amazing the progress the company has made and the massive rise in lithium prices, and the underwhelming rise in the share price.

Roll on a re rate into the 30's

[ukgeorge] 21/9/2021 10:13

I'm too impatient, just added 21,635 @20.3p

Roll on the resource upgrade

[hugotanha] 21/9/2021 08:32

Waiting for 17p

[goodgrief] 21/9/2021 08:27

hTTps://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1440200436720361479?s=21Seriously good article from Bloomberg on renewable technologies and the commodities needed.

[ukgeorge] 17/9/2021 11:24

20.499p to buy at the moment. Just added a couple more, hoping this is near the low for the trading range.

[jlondon] 17/9/2021 07:41

I am pleased to share that after posting FACTS on this forum etc, there has been no COUNTER to it given it is FACTS with links/reference titles with dates etc.

Now, we can move forward. I have been keeping quiet for quite some time now and since it was getting more and more missed info, I decided to post the facts.

Of course, if one has to answer all the missed facts/info over some time, there is going to be lots to answer.

With that, we look forward to IRR and their further exploration which would extend the life of the potential mine to come.

Yesterday, in the morning, I note that the share price was 22p. Then, later it went down. On the other forum, they said someone is selling. I am not sure if it is synthetic shares being sold given this is something widely known.

With thanks. J.London, Fri, 17 Sep 2021.

[jlondon] 17/9/2021 00:38

Oh, IRR*s mkt cap is £112m.
Piedmont*s JV is US$102m which will pay for the studies, capex.
IRR Cash US$28 million.

From the above, just the JV of US$102m + US$28 million UNDERPINS IRR*s Mkt Cap.

---
EBITDA
IRR may have received US$52m [Piedmont JV 50% share of US$105m EBITDA per IRR presentation]

With spodumene prices of US$2,500 for IRR*s SC6 instead of US$650 quoted in the IRR presentation, that is 4 TIMES MORE = EBITDA 4 TIMES MORE.

EBITDA could therefore be US$420 approximately [105x4] = US$220 Million to IRR for 50% share.

US$220 Million = £ 1 5 9 Million vs £112m IRR MKT CAP.

P/E 10 of EBITDA = 1.59 Bilion [159m x 10]
P/E 5 of EBITDA = £795 Million. [159 x 5]

===
IONEER MKT CAP A$1.14 BILLION [Only at DFS with JV Stillwater today. Capex full raising still to come as per my post today].

CORE LITHIUM MKT CAP A$700 Million [Only at DFS]
This is £370m MKT CAP vs £112M IRR MKT CAP.
IRR*s resource is 14.5Mt vs 4.5Mt 1.3% li20. On the other forum, they said its not worth digging the IRR deposit. So, again, missed info.

[Ioneer and Core NOT MINING YET]
==

Something to think about. ALL FACTS. CORRECTING ALL THE MISSED FACTS.

[jlondon] 17/9/2021 00:38

--Sorry, printed out twice by error.

[jlondon] 17/9/2021 00:28

UKGeorge

May I respectfully answer? On the other forum of IRR, here are all the missed info:
1] Production time is 3-4 yrs. This is FACTUALLY WRONG. The poster does NOT realise that IRR*s lithium is SPODUMENE, not lithium hydroxide or carbonate which will need capex [capital] of US$785 Million and from the example shown today from Ioneer [Sibayne Stillwater JV] they can only start production time in 2nd half 2024.
So, by SUGGESTING A PRODUCTION TIME OF 3-4 YRS WHICH IS NOT CORRECT on the other forum, it causes people to think that its a long way off. Maybe, the poster on the other forum does not understand what LITHIUM CARBONATE/HYDROXIDE is and what SPODUMENE is, otherwise production is only about 1 yr from the Core Lithium RNS/ANN to the Australian Stock Exchange. Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide needs to produce the chemical and needs plant etc, hence why the capex is US$785m for Ioneer and production will only be 2nd half 2024.

On the other hand, Core Lithium that is doing SPODUMENE like IRR will do an Investment Decision and then production could be END 2022. So about 1 yr if end of yr is the time of investment decision.

2] No one is aware on this forum or the other IRR forum that SPODUMENE PRICES have jumped to US$2,500 for SC6 which IRR is producing. Makes a world of difference when IRR*s presentation shows that their EBITDA of US$105m [100% of project] is based on US$650 for SC6. That is 4 TIMES MORE.

The whole world per AFR is talking about this including known to Macquaire re: PlS auction spodumene price achieved on 14 Sep 2021.

3] People on the other forum think that IRR is producing SC5 which is a lower grade than SC6 which IRR is producing.

4]Yes, GeorgeUK, posting FACTS WITH LINKS/TITLES TO CHECK will counter ALL WRONG info with NO LINKS to check.

5] IRR said they are FAST-TRACKING.

6] SI BROKER REPORT ON IRR of July 2021- apparently no one is reading that either. On the other forum, someone posted that it is wrong that IRR spodumene is going to Telsa. SI Broker report of July 2021 via IRR website stated that Piedmont has an agreement to supply Tesla. SI also said that the Piedmont deal with IRR means that 50% of IRR spodumene off-take is going to Piedmont. When Piedmont receives IRR spodumene what will they do with it? They are going to process the spodumene into lithium hydroxide and that will go to Tesla. What ever raw material ie spodumene they are getting from IRR or anywhere else is going to supply Tesla.

7] Makes a world of difference that SPODUMENE is GOING INTO SUPPLY SHORTAGES in 2025 - 2 sources of info I provided from ie Macquaire & S & P Global. Already, Macquaire said in the PLS auction info that the prices of US$2,400 and US$2,500 for SC 5 & 6 shows the "DESPERATION."

IRR*s EBITDA is US$105m for 100% of the project. With the PIEDMONT JV, 50% of this EBITDA will go to Piedmont. So IRR will get US$52.5 MILLION. With prices of spodumene at US$2,500 for SC6 instead of US$650 in IRR presentation, that is 4 TIME MORE = EBITDA 4 TIMES MORE ie nearly US$420 MILLION so 50% is US$210 MILLION to IRR if the prices are at this rate.

---SO UKGEORGE, ALL GENUINE SHAREHOLDERS OF IRR WILL WANT FACTS FROM LINKS/TITLE REF TO COUNTER ALL MISSED INFORMATION. Only dampers dont want FACTS.
Hope that helps. With due respect. JLondon-Genuine Shareholder.
Oh, I am not posting on your threads of which you own 3 I think from a quick look. I will check again when I have time. FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT; FACTS ARE NOT ROOMPING.

[ukgeorge] 16/9/2021 16:49

jLondon, can you stop ramping this the share price seems to keep on falling because of it :)

Sadly I think the main problem is that we are listed on Aim rather than asx or tsx. But that said sooner or later we should have another big rally :)

Roll on the resource upgrade and the de merger of the gold assets.

[jlondon] 16/9/2021 12:28

Ironridge Resources
Maiden Resource Estimate [JORC 2012]
14.5 Mt @1.3% Li20. [inc 4.5Mt @139% Li2o in Ind]
EBITDA: US$105m for 100% project @US$650/t selling price vs US$2,500 SC6 at PLS auction 14.9.21 [4 X =US$420m EBITDA potentially]
Mkt Cap: £118m @20.72.

US$28m in cash. JV 50% Piedmont for US$102m. Spodumene.


Core Lithium, NT, Oz
DFS 2019 : 9.6 Mt @1.3% Li2o.
Mkt Cap: A$700m or £370m [Exchange rate £1=A$1.89]
Spodumene.
Investment Decision & Production: End 2022.

Posting given on the other forum they may not be aware of the resource size etc?

Both are in spodumene NOT lithium hydroxide or carbonate = less time to set up production and modest capex relative to lithium hydroxide/carbonate.
-
---SIBAYNE STILLWATER -IONEER JV,16.9.21 : FT reported on this deal & the article said that gold producers like Sibayne now have to have a different theme from just gold, hence Sibayne deal today is the 3rd one in the battery metals space.---

[jlondon] 16/9/2021 10:57

News just out:
"Sibayne Stillwater buys HALF of ioneer*s Nevada LITHIUM project in R7bn deal."-Moneyweb, 4 hrs ago.

"Sibayne Stillwater to invest US$400m to advance ioneer*s Rhyolite Ridge.."-PR, 8 hrs ago.


Above the same story. Proactive Investors AU reports on the above story and gives the following details:

"Annual lithium HYDROXIDE 22,000 tonnes.
EBITDA US$2 8 8 Million
After Tax NPV [8% real] US$1.3 Billion.
18 mths to find a JV partner.
Construction by first half of 2022, FINANCING six mths later, 1st product shipment 2 N D HALF 2024."

Ref: "Ioneer Ltd strikes up US$490m JV with Sibayne Stillwater."-Proactive Investors Au, 16.9.21.

Comment:
Ioneer*s capital cost is US$785M. This is consistent with lithium co*s wanting to produce either lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide.

IRR is into SPODUMENE which does not cost anything into 3 digit capex. The above is useful to see that to produce the lithium hydroxide, it takes ===LONGER ie construction by 1st half of 2022 with production 2nd half of 2024 vs Core Lithium above ie production END 2022 for spodumene.===

On the other forum, it is possible that folks have NOT looked at the EBIDTA FOR IRR NOR NPV.

===Just compare IRR*S LITHIUM PROJECT WITH A EBITDA of US$105 Million a yr [if US$2,500 spodumene EBITDA US$420m] vs Ioneer*s US$288m EBITDA.=== Both will have 1/2 of the EBITDA after JV*s.

This is with a sale price for spodumene of US$650/t COMPARED with 14.9.21 auction price of US$2,500 for SC6 which is ---4 TIMES MORE approx EQUALS US$420M EBITDA [1/2 to IRR]----

Macquaire also MULTIPLIED PILBARA*S [PLS] EBITDA by the increased auction price they achieved at the 14.9.21 auction and this was posted yesterday.

===IRR MKT CAP £118m @20.72.[Pre-DFS & Fast Track?] JV Piedmont
===IONEER MKT CAP A$1.14 BILLION [DFS] JV Stillwater today, 16.9.21
===CORE LITHIUM MKT CAP A$700 MILLION [DFS]

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 19:40

-----Australian Stock Exchange wrote to Core Lithium------
hxxps://hotcopper.com.au/asx/cxo/ [Link to view RNS/ANN of 15 Sep 2021]

"ANN/RNS, 15 Sep 2021: Response to ASX Price Query."
"Price Sensitive: Yes."

The mkt cap of CXO has jumped to A$704.2 Million @45.5c.

"Q:Is Core aware of any info concerning it that has NOT been announced..."

Answer: "Core is one of the VERY FEW LITHIUM DEVELOPERS GLOBALLY THAT ARE READY TO START NEW CONSTRUCTION in 2021 to take advantage of HIGH SPODUMENE PRICES."

"Significantly, Core notes that yesterday, a spodumene concentrate cargo from another Australian producer SOLD for an approx equivalent price of US$2,500...
Core is the only Australian focused, ASX listed co*s to JOIN THE R A N K S
OF N E W SPODUMENE producers between now and END 2022."

"Core has recently FINANCED the Finniss lithium project and is PREPARING TO MAKE A FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION in the coming WEEKS ahead of the construction on the project before the end of the yr and TARGETING FIRST PRODUCTION E N D 2 0 2 2."
===
Comment:
From the above, it shows that Australian investors were aware of the Pilbara Minerals Auction price obtained at US$2,500 for SPODUMENE. As said by AFR, it sent tongues wagging around the world + mining industry.

The share price of Core went up and hence the Australian Stock Exchange asked the above question.

It is useful to know that UPON AN INVESTMENT DECISION in the coming wks from 15 Sep 2021, it takes roughly 1 YEAR TO START PRODUCTION GIVEN IT IS A MORE SIMPLE PROCESS producing spodumene. IRR*s process is even simplier hence why it is the lowest cost producer in the world together with Sigma. Core is one step higher in capital cost than IRR. From the official answer, I now have an idea how long it could take to start production although NO two co*s are the same. It does give an idea only.

However, on the other IRR forum, they are NOT aware of what is happening to spodumene prices or Pilbara*s auction price on 14 Sep 2021 that was achieved which was termed "insane" by the S& P Global a/c mgr on Twitter which I posted.

==IRR is "FAST-TRACKING" their lithium project per the info so one should hear more.==

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 17:09

Yes. Only it will need some $865 million capital to come as and when.
That will be the challenge because it has to set up the whole works to produce lithium carbonate.

SHARE PRICE
On the other forum, they think that someone is selling. However, all afternoon, the price was not raised to sell. However, in the last mins, the price was 21.355p to sell and 21.47p to buy. If there is real selling and NOT synthetic shares, the the market will not be KEEN TO BUY ABOVE NORMAL MKT SIZE. However, I note the market wants to buy larger blocks above normal mkt size. So, logically, it does appear that the market wants to buy.

15 Sep 2021.

[ukgeorge] 15/9/2021 15:58

The project in Ontario is owned by Frontier Lithium up a tasty 250% in a year

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 14:44

Australian Financial Review:
"THE LITHIUM BOOM JUST WENT TO ANOTHER LEVEL."-15 Sep 2021

Highlights:
"The auction of 8,000t of lithium hard rock by ASX Pilbara Minerals had TONGUES WAGGING AROUND THE WORLD. ITS THE SHOT BEING HEARD AROUND THE MINING WORLD."

Macquaire: "SUPPLY SHORTAGES COULD DEVELOP B Y 2 0 2 5."

Spodumene languished at US$400 in Sep 2020.

Pilbara Minerals shares in 12 mths gained 6 7 5 %.

MACQUARIE: "FORECASTS EBITDA FOR PLS IN THE 2022 FINANCIAL YR AT $428M, based on the current spot price of US$990/t. BUT AT US$2,500 A TONNE, E B I T D A W O U L D B E MORE LIKE $1.2 B ILLION. But its hard NOT to see a certain level of DESPERATION for tonnes in Tues*s auction, pointing to SURGING DEMAND." PLS is Pilbara Minerals.

==
Quite human to be excited over yesterday*s news as news hit about the auction.
AFR now reports it sent tongues wagging around the world and in the mining industry. To read, call up the title. I did the cals for EBITDA for IRR yesterday and 100% is around the same levels. Kindly check.

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 14:26

UKGeorge
Chris Temple has been doing an interview with a lithium co & said that the decimal place is wrong and one day he hopes it will add 1 decimal place. This co is in Canada.
However, one report gives all the details & whilst the deposit is in Ontario, they are into lithium carbonate etc and the capital requirement is US$685m.

As for spodumene, another 2 have cheaper mkt caps of nearly 1/2 of IRR but they are not even off the ground yet. One is waiting for mining licence & the harder part is to raise funds. The other co is in Zim and still on technicals.

I have been studying all the co*s on Toro_AIM*s chart which one person said is from the broker report of IRR.

In answer, YES. Why? I was in Solgold from early days and have known about IRR for ages and following it. I also listen to Mather and what he said about IRR in a Goldman Sachs Investor Conference re: Solgold.

I will give you the names of the other co*s on the broker*s chart to show IRR is the lowest capital requirement together with Sigma which will IPO?

Firefinch is just above IRR. Others are Prospect, ARZ, Sayona, Kodal, PREM, Critical Elements, Nemaska, Lion, Savannah, Core. I am interested to see where all of them are in production dates. Savannah has issues with locals who dont want mining and same with Rio in Serbia. Nemaska has just come out of creditors hands and went bk as they could not raise the next amt for capex due to overun.

[ukgeorge] 15/9/2021 11:46

jLondon, are you excited :)

Have you just bought in or been in for a while?

This is my favourite lithium play but not the best performing.

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 11:43

Tweet:
"With the price of LITHIUM carbonate hitting 142,000 Yuan [US$22,000] a tonne & NO SIGN OF S U P P L Y CATCHING UP ON DEMAND BEFORE 2 0 2 5 MINIMUM..."

or 15 Sep 2021 [Wed]
--
IRR produces SPODUMENE and not lithium carbonate which is processed from spodumene.
Use to know when the earliest will be before supply can come onstream to meet demand. Will have to check other sources as the above had no link embedded.


IRR will be in production BEFORE 2025 especially since they are fast-tracking and capex [capital] is funded by Piedmont + other expenses.

[jlondon] 15/9/2021 11:33

George Roach of PREM tweeted:
"SPODUMENE PRICES SURGING HIGHER. Recent spodumene auction achieved a closing price of $2,240/dmt- "A REALLY CRAZY HIGH ONE." Limited supply , high demand driving prices up." 1 hr ago, Wed, 15 Sep 2021. PREM embedded a link to SPGlobal on the Pilbara Minerals 14 Sep 2021 auction for the above. IRR produces C6 which is higher grade and quoted by Pilbara to be US$2,500.

ToroAIM showed a chart from the broker to illustrate IRR*s cost [capital] shown to be at the lowest. I have copied down all the other names and unfortunately all the other co*s shown [lithium exploration] are at the higher cost curve with PREM shown highest.
---
IRR TWEET yesterday: They are exploring the rest of the other satellite prospects near the main lithium deposit.

SPLIT
I recall Mascolo*s interview stating that Piedmont visited the site etc, then months ago. He sort of said that if Piedmont did not want to offer, then ...suggesting that there Piedmont was not the ONLY one? So, that is what I took from the interview but not sure as I viewed it quickly then. There is actually no real need to SPLIT the LITHIUM out into a separate co except it TIDIES UP THE CORPORATE STRUCTURE AND LISTS THE ASSET [LITHIUM] SEPARATELY FOR LEGAL /CORPORATE PURPOSES?

Now that IRR is continuing to search for more lithium in their LICENCE area, it will expand the current RESOURCE which is in demand.

What happens next? A/c to the other forum, it is said IRR has £28m. I thought it was £25m. So, the splitting of the co is not to enable it to be separately financed so, one has to see in the next stage what the reason is.

A/c to share price Angel, they commented that the deal is due to the management. Given it is a sister co to Solgold, IRR had no problem getting capital to drill and did not need to do a cheap JV for another co to pay for drilling which is modest relatively.

Wed, 15 Sep 2021.

[jlondon] 14/9/2021 21:35

Chrysalis99
Agreed.
Mentioned 4x relating to the "insane" price of spodumene [US$2,500 vs US$650 in the presentation of IRR relating to their cals]. US$2,500 is for SC6. US$2,400 is for SC5. IRR*s SPODUMENE is SC6. Just imagine, US$105m EBITDA x 4=US$420m or £304m [£1=US$1.38] for 100% of IRR*s lithium project. IRR*s EBITDA share is 50%= £152m V E R S U S £ 122m MKT CAP @20.8/21.2p, today*s share price [US$2,500/t for SC6].
P/E 10=£1.5 B I L L I O N [implied cap] or P/E 5 = £760m [implied cap].

===If say, P/E 10 £1.5bn for 50% share of project, IRR share price should be >10x today or P/E 5x today.====

Yes, Chrysalis99, PRODUCTION COSTS REMAINS THE SAME so EBITDA is even more but for simplicity at the momo, 4x is as above. Maybe, people will faint if EBITDA is way more as you said.

------------MKT SLEEPING? - HAVENT DONE THE SUMS OR SEEN THE "INSANE" SPOD AUCTION PRICE GOT BY PLS today in their official RNS/ANN of 14 Sep 2021. Its all over Twitter. On the other forum, they also dont know.----------

Core Lithium is no further than IRR and in fact they are further off given they are in the process of gathering wonga /capex for their project.

So, IRR is further down the road and given it could be FAST-TRACKED per info?

If anyone has contact or can contact Vincent Mascolo, then perhaps they can press the button to fast track with immediate effect given Piedmont is giving them money to bring the project to fruition?

With that type of EBITDA, why, I am sure dividend is on the cards as norm? I recall someone mentioning it or someone had asked IRR about this?

TWEET:
"$2,240/t for spod is MORE THAN DOUBLE the PEAK of the last rally...Competition surrounding tight lithium feedstock supply seeing more converter margins passed upstream." -14 Sep 2021

[chrysalis99] 14/9/2021 19:55

The EBITDA should be way way way more than 4x greater if the selling price is 4x more while the production costs remain the same.

[jlondon] 14/9/2021 19:05

Core Lithium, Finniss project, Northern Territory, Australia
I gave a link to hotcopper CXO. I have now checked their website as well.
I recall the last news was that Ganfeng was going to take some of their lithium off-take and participate in their capital raising for capex. However, there is a tiered buy in so that like BCN, Ganfeng could end up owning X % of the shares.

I note that on Hotcopper CXO, they have a thread about VOTE AGAINST TAKEOVER.
LoL - at least they can see what can happen. The BCN people apparently didnt know?
However, the London market tends not to be nuanced in the £££ so the market cap is lower than it should be ie undervalued even on the broker price target. Or, investors like shaving a penny or so and the price /mkt cap remains rather on the lowish side so that opportunity knocks for any co that is interested in taking a co over.

CXO [Core Lithium] need not worry as much. Why? A$688 million is quite hard to swallow given that the takeover co has to fork some 40%-50% more. This means that it could go to OVER A$1bn. Most of the co*s taken over are like BCN in the low hundreds of millions.

IRR is now also in that category. Why? Capex paid, money in the bank, drilling MORE lithium, lowest in the planet ie costs, direct shipping ore with NO floatation, relatively clean metallurgy ie no heavy mica/clay etc etc, close to trunk road, cheap transportation per share price Angel, LITHIUM FOR SPODUMENE C6 AT US$2,500 vs US$650 in the presentation and at this selling price the EBITDA is US$105m per yr.

AT THE "INSANE" spodumene selling price of US$2,500 SC, that is 4 TIMES MORE. I am sure Piedmont is aware as everyone that is anyone is aware of the PLS RNS/ANN of today, 14 Sep 2021 relating to the auction price achieved as above.

Not implying anything - if one can see it so can anyone else.


Gold not taken into account.

Interesting situ.

Tues, 14 Sep 2021