Invocas Share Discussion Threads

[mattjos] 26/1/2020 17:04

For me that means keep buying into the future as the chart develops, as short-term patterns emerge and are confirmed and according to the news-flow.

[mattjos] 26/1/2020 17:00

so, at this stage of the chart development, I see CNG as a Buy at up to 17.5p & certainly if you can get on Bid and collect at under 14.6p.

However, I am in this for the bigger prize as follows:

2009 - 2013, CNG went form 2.75p to 41p. A 38.25p total advance. This is Major Wave 1

2013 to 2018, CNG's Major Wave 2 then retraced all of Wave 1 and went as low as 3p in October 2018 before leaping back to 10p

Then October 2018 to April/May/June 2019, CNG retraced again to 2.6p. In fact on one single day, it printed a low of 2.59p (the day i bought at that price on Bid).

EW theory says that Wave 2 should not re-trace to lower than the start of Wave 1 .. but, a 5% leeway is permissible

The Low of Major Wave 1 was 2.75p.
2.75p - 5% = 2.6125 …… on only one single trade on one day, did CNG print lower than 2.6p so, I believe that is near as damn it acceptable on EW theory.

So:

Major Wave 1 was 38.25p

Major Wave 2 retraced all of Wave 1 & formed a low within 5% of W1.

Major Wave 3 is now clearly underway (confirmed when it broke past the intermediate high of 10p & formed the Adam & Eve Double Bottom).

Major Wave 3 is going to be at least 1.618 * the value of Major Wave 1:

38.25p * 1.618 = 61.8885
Add on the start point of the Wave (2.59p) and we get to 61.885 + 2.59 = 64.4785p

Call it 65p for simplicity sake.

(Wave 3 is always the longest & strongest Wave & the Wave that usually 'channels'. It is also the Wave most likely to extend and might see 2.618 X the value of Wave 1 but, lets keep it simple and work on a 'standard' EW pattern for now)

Thereafter Wave 4 will set in … remember Wave 4 cannot fall lower than the peak of Wave 1 (in this case 41p).
Given how CNG tends to extremes of the Wave patterns, lets assume it falls to exactly 41p.
Finally, Wave 5 will occur and that is typically 1 x the value of Wave 1 (38.25p)

So, this gives us a Wave 5 target of 41p + 38.25p = 79.25p

So, 65p and then 79p look do-able for the longer term investor / EW practitioner.

At under 16p to buy and with what looks like strong 10p support below, that offers 300% - 400% upside as compared to 40% downside.

[mattjos] 26/1/2020 16:29

CNG has revisited the 9.5p breakout point (from the long term downtrend) & has since embarked on a series of higher lows & breaking past the red lines of resistance .. it's close to doing so again, imo & should then move ahead to consolidate around the 17.5p level (the next Fib re-trace level)

Then its the 22p level to challenge again, which is clearly critical as a breakout past that will herald a new High on this 7-month pattern.

(W1) 2.59 --> 22 = 20.41

(W2) 22 --> 9.55 re-trace.

W3 = W1 * 1.618 + lows of W2 so:

20.41 * 1.618 = 33.023

9.55 + 33.023 = 42.573 as target for W3

On October 28th 2013, CNG traded at up to 41p so, you would expect resistance around that level (previous ATH) … the EW target for W3 is to within 1.573p of that ATH

[mattjos] 26/1/2020 16:14

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[mattjos] 21/10/2019 21:20

W1 = 19.41
W2 ↓ 61.8% to 9.55

Min W3 target = 1.618 * W1 (19.41 * 1.618 = 31.4) + 9.55 = 40.95

Possible W3 extension targets are 60.35 or 92

[mattjos] 01/10/2019 23:41

Different perspective of same:

[mattjos] 01/10/2019 23:38

Zooming out to review the progress over last 12 months and the patterns are more obvious & the uptrend seems quite powerful and intact

[mattjos] 01/10/2019 21:02

Another cautious tick up for CNG today .. seemingly right on cue

[mattjos] 29/9/2019 17:52

This is the bigger picture, afaiac:

[mattjos] 29/9/2019 10:46

A common pattern and common re-test of the breakout line looks imminent this coming week:

[mattjos] 26/9/2019 18:41

but the bigger picture is so very much bigger

[mattjos] 26/9/2019 18:37

Textbook! Traded at 21.95 today

[mattjos] 14/9/2019 00:36

W1 = 77
W2 77-->4
W3 = 77 x 2.618 = 2.01 + 4 = 2.05
W4 = 38% --> 50% … 1.27?
W 5 - W4 + 77 = 2.04

1st Wave completion

Expect return to value of W4 for next major wave to start

Retrace to 127 for major W2

Major W3 = 1.618 x MW1(2.01) = 3.25 + 1.27 = 5.02

[mattjos] 12/9/2019 22:32

if so;

V W1 * 1.618 + start of W3 is:

(17.4 * 1.618 = 28.15)+ 13.35 = 41.50 as target for Wave 3

That is achievable on known financial metrics as NPV is circa 66p
41.50/66 = 63% of NPV