Invista EUR Prf Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 17/12/2014 15:35

Skinny,

I'm bored, and having a silly afternoon...lol...A couple of pints of Oracle at lunchtime has put me in a mischievous mood!

There are four auction periods, but the actual auctions take place at 8am, 11am, 2pm, and 4.30. There has been a recent change, in that any business that had been put on for the intra-day auctions could be seen throughout, but can now only be seen during the auction period.

[skinny] 17/12/2014 15:26

Tiltonboy - I realise the options expiry doesn't apply here.

I thought the opening auction started @7:50 and ended @8:00am - unless extended.

Anyway, as I said - I'm not up to speed on this these days.

There used to be an area on this site that explained such things.

on edit :-

[tiltonboy] 17/12/2014 15:19

Skinny,

I'm afraid you are off the mark.

Opening and closing auctions take place at 08:00 and 16:30. Additionally there are auctions at 11:00 and 14:00 for SETS MM stocks. SETS stocks can also go into auction if the movement is greater than pre-determined limits, but this does not apply here as its a SETS MM stock. Option expiry auctions do not apply to this stock.

[skinny] 17/12/2014 15:09

The auctions normally occur at 7:50am and 4:30pm - the opening and closing auctions.

I'm not totally up to speed on this any more, but an intraday auction occurs when a highly liquid share price moves by 5% and a very illiquid share price move by (I think) 10-25%.

There is also the 'witching auction' on options expiry - typically @10:10am on the 3rd Friday of the month.

[envirovision] 17/12/2014 15:00

I think they do these auctions a set number of times a day, so when the book was in auction someone put a 75K lot up at 50p and someone or something (a bot) took the bait.

I personally would not draw anything positive at from it because it was clearly some distance below the quoted market maker offer price.

On the other hand it at least keeps a bit of volume ticking over which could help management refrain from the thought of de-listing which would obviously help save some precious expenses.

[skyship] 17/12/2014 14:38

Is the answer in this - though still as clear as mud:

'UT ' Uncrossing Trade

This is used for the single uncrossing trade, detailing the total executed volume and uncrossing price as a result of a SETS auction.

[skyship] 17/12/2014 14:36

Sorry Tilts - explain.

Of course any purchase requires a market maker to sell - but as there was only the one trade - that is what it looks like - a purchase.

If it were a matched bargain, then surely two trades would show.

The positive slant arises as if someone is paying £37,500 to buy here, then that has to be a positive; whereas the sellers position is more likely just a wish to clear their book!

So, on this occasion - you need to be more explicit - though I accept of course that you posted in jest...

[tiltonboy] 17/12/2014 14:06

It was also a 75k sale!

Stop trying to put a postive slant on the trade!

Bloody rampers!

[skyship] 17/12/2014 13:14

Interesting - a 75k purchase @ 50p...

[envirovision] 06/11/2014 11:08

Always difficult to trust the Asset manager. One could argue and ask why an earth did they not sell a few years ago to avoid this mess but then some people were hoping for property to appreciate back then rather than continue to fall in many EU areas. Decline in price here is starting to look terminal.

[xxx] 04/11/2014 14:43

A key question for me is :
Does the lack of sales represent the lack of demand for the constituent properties or an attempt to maximise the asset base to garner larger fees, by the asset manager.

[envirovision] 03/11/2014 14:58

It just seems to me that no body is prepared to buy anything anywhere near market value main land Europe and the situation is simply not turning. Today PSPI had to sell a couple of fully let assets in Germany for 7.5% below the last independent valuation in April this year by colliers and of course the discount it was sold to what was already on the many times revised down book value far worse.

Perhaps this is why there is frustration Sky, they cant sell anything at anywhere like reasonable value? Perhaps this is why they are laying the ground to find further covering capital.

..but as fly points out as to what implication for the prefs?

[flyfisher] 03/11/2014 14:42

The company has already commented that the net proceeds of property sales will be lower than the most recent valuations and that they will need a further injection of capital over and above the anticipated proceeds from planned asset sales to achieve step down.

So another nav fall is on the cards, but what are the implications for the prefs of any capital raise?

[skyship] 03/11/2014 13:28

envirovision - AlanJI has done the serious number crunching here; and the %age valuation fall to jeopardise repayment seems to me to be well in excess of the likely outcome.

I too am frustrated by the Manager's poor performance with asset sales; nevertheless the Risk/Reward stats make this a good buy at current levels - albeit with only a 3% allocation currently...

[alanji] 03/11/2014 12:55

I am still holding. My latest spreadsheet shows the prefs will pay out if a fall in gross property value is 15% or less. Fall of 21% would be break even and fall of 28% would be wipe out. Assumed share price 56.5p (I did a trial buy) and ignores liquidation costs and income p/l.
With a possible profit of 85%, increasing by 15% pa for the accrued div that looks a pretty good risk reward. Lack of sales announcements is a bit of a concern - if they achieve the interest rate step down they will look very attractive at the current price.

[envirovision] 03/11/2014 11:37

You still confident these will pay out at the end of the road Sky or just in for a wild flutter?

[skyship] 30/10/2014 15:30

Made a very small top-up @ 58.5p - these are looking rather friendless, so rather cheap again IMO...

[skyship] 02/9/2014 14:45

Fly - absolutely no reason whatsoever for the Prefs to accept any dilution. Brave to top-up; but perhaps should be doing so...

[envirovision] 02/9/2014 12:58

No surprise. There is probably a big investor there somewhere happy to take them at 40p or 50p or something for ever and a day, however for deep pocketed active institution types only.

I expect buying the prefs is for such serous investors only now, who are linked to the raising of further funds and whom are able to dictate to some extent their ultimate fate and who have pockets deep enough to do this.

[skinny] 02/9/2014 10:28

Hmmmm - unable to deal online atm.

[envirovision] 02/9/2014 10:19

I too have exited, im afraid I have lost confidence with the board now.

[flyfisher] 02/9/2014 09:35

Good comment scburbs.

The company has 80.3m euro property held for sale and 222 senior debt.
Since these figures alovera has sold for 12.2 with 5.2m going to repay debt.

Current situation therefore is 68.1m euro property held for sale with 216.8 senior debt and the company comments that net proceeds of sales will be less than their valuation. Assuming they are eventually sold for 60m euro it would give 156.8 senior debt which is well short of the step down event.

There is currently 48.1m euro of equity and their will be about 43m of prefs / arrears at maturity .

If the sales go through at a discount, as the company suggests, then the prefs are at risk when considering any further trading losses due to the high finance costs.

I have exited with a small loss.

Good luck.

[scburbs] 02/9/2014 08:28

Step down event potentially not realisable without capital injection. Preference dividend looks set to remain uncovered unless they can raise capital. Additional sales beyond the assets identified would trigger large prepayment penalties and no scope to raise ordinary equity unless the prefs convert or they could get investment for an instrument ranking ahead of the prefs (or more of the prefs themselves).

Not sure why they view the progress as encouraging!

"The Company has made encouraging progress with these targeted disposals, and the focus of the Company's strategy remains to complete the remaining transactions in its existing business plan. The implementation of the current disposal strategy will require careful cash management to balance the consequent loss of income from asset sales against planned expenditures. In order to make the requisite repayment of the mezzanine BREDS loan that will trigger the Step Down rate of interest, the Company has also identified a need for a further injection of capital over and above the anticipated proceeds from planned asset sales, reflecting the likelihood that, in some cases, the net proceeds of property sales will be lower than the most recent valuations."