International Personal F... Share Discussion Threads

[mikalan] 29/4/2021 08:36

Given the circumstance the performance is remarkable. The actions taken by this very good management team, have in my opinion, not just kept the business going but actually improved it.

Short term this has done very well, from sub 40p to where we are now. I think that this will continue to rise and in the medium to longer term rise considerably.

[ttny2004] 29/4/2021 07:50

Q1 results out this morning. Lower impairments than expected which will result in greater profitability than estimated.CFO Justin to leave in July after 4 years for another opportunity in a different sector. Search for replacement underway. Ashame because he seemed very good, but people do change jobs. Hope replacement is as good.Investors call at 9am often worth listening to.

[halfpenny] 27/4/2021 14:33

Further to rise

[ttny2004] 09/4/2021 13:26

As predicted a year ago if you check back on posts this year we will see the 150-200p range being met.

[ttny2004] 09/4/2021 13:25

Telbap agree. Also if you look at sites such as Stockopedia using their Quality, Value and Momentum scores 0-100. IPF rated as 96. 100 top, 0 bottom.

[telbap] 09/4/2021 12:53

@smithie, mr market does not agree with you

[smithie6] 15/3/2021 14:42

disagree

IPF accounts are a disaster !
& that is under these bosses

look at the cap. value vs the EV !!

[ttny2004] 15/3/2021 09:22

See PFG very poor results today and heading their home credit credit could face liquidation. Just goes to show how well IPF board have managed things. A good senior management team makes all the difference

[wad collector] 11/3/2021 14:44

Could have picked up 10% on a quick trade there if you were brave enough....

[telbap] 11/3/2021 14:37

Blue close??

[wad collector] 11/3/2021 11:18

As you say...though I guess on a longer timescale it is maybe just noise.

[telbap] 11/3/2021 10:49

Wow 10% drop in a straight line ....no rns

[wad collector] 08/3/2021 10:03

They can't adopt the Finnish approach to all the potential Govt interest rate caps. I worry more about the strategy for non-repayment, can't see the foreign Govts taking a stand in favour of the nasty foreign money lender. But maybe the worst is over...

[smithie6] 08/3/2021 09:11

"They borrow money to loan money, that's the business."

arguably after having been in business for X years they should have built up a big chunk of their cash to lend out (as per MCL) rather than borrowing it at 9.75% which is clearly a hit on the profit

[mikalan] 08/3/2021 09:02

Debt to equity for financial services is more likely to be high. They borrow money to loan money, that's the business.

As to hitting stones in the road. They have done so consistently over time. share price went from 180 to sub 40 with Covid. share price has also tanked with regulatory announcements across its markets, but it has ridden those storms and is, IMO, now heading back to where it came and beyond.

Is it a 'safe' share with no risk. No, but I take confidence that they managed to refinance their bonds. The bond owners charged a premium at 9.75% but 9.75% of nothing is nothing so they must think they'll do well and they know a lot more than I do.

[smithie6] 08/3/2021 08:36

mikalan

this is a discussion forum

"do you have an opinion wrt the following part of my post
imo its gearing is far too high

~200 million cap. value but the EV is over 600 million

infers a lot of debt wrt the cap. value & hence a lot of risk

(& imo the accounts are a bit rubbery since imo the numbers are dubiously worded in order to hide this)"

[mikalan] 07/3/2021 16:14

And you are entitled to your opinion Smithie and clearly you won't be invested which again is up to you. Others of course are entitled to their opinions and investment choices. These were sub 40p not so long ago and I've bought from there upwards and will continue to do so. So whether it is well managed or not, or its financials make sense to you or not I've done quite nicely and ultimately that's the aim of the game. Good luck with whatever investments you choose.

IMO this has much further to run and IMO for those prepared to wait will be several times current value.

[smithie6] 06/3/2021 13:23

well mng'd

but in H1 it was imo not a going concern

& if it had been wound up imo shareholders would have got nothing, since it's tang. assets situation was phps/probably -ve.... & goodwill etc can't be on a cheque !

& they were imo quite worried & as a result got rid of staff like there was no tomorrow !

-----

imo its gearing is far too high

~200 million cap. value but the EV is over 600 million

infers a lot of debt wrt the cap. value & hence a lot of risk

(& imo the accounts are a bit rubbery since imo the numbers are dubiously worded in order to hide this)

if they hit any stones in the road then the share price will see noticeable falls
Cant happen ?
Well, just look at their Finland operation, they closed it down !! & it cost them quite a lot.

[ttny2004] 06/3/2021 13:09

Agree regarding well managed. Executives who are actually earning their pay. So many other companies I couldn't say that for.

[mikalan] 06/3/2021 08:46

This is a Rocky Balboa company. Keeps taking hits, gets knocked down but keeps coming back. Really well managed. I expect more ups and downs but over time am hoping for multiples of where we are now. We are still Miles off pre covid share price

[ttny2004] 05/3/2021 18:21

Hooray! We finally got there.As the recovery goes on this year can see progressing and entering the range 150p to 200p.

[wad collector] 05/3/2021 17:52

Well, it has finished the week no longer a penny share for the first time in a year.

[smithie6] 05/3/2021 16:03

IPF

cap. value 223 mil
Enterprise Value. 624 million !!!

when looking at the share price ppl need to also take a look at that towering EV of 624 million !!

(makes the shares look less attractive imo.

experienced directors & has international presence but the EV & the debt are mountainous !!

and are phps being overlooked by share buyers

[smithie6] 05/3/2021 15:42

analysis of MCL vs IPF debt vs money lent out + cash held

1) MCl. previous post on MCL thread
86% of MCL's cash lent out was/is its own cash, not borrowed from a bank

2) IPF
lent out =533 million
cash 116
debts -492
tax debt. -26
payables-receivable. -80

debts + tax debt + pay/receive
= 492 + 26 + 80
= 598 million

minus cash of 116
= 598- 116
= 482 million. nett debt.

lent out 533
compare with 482 million nett debt.
!!

(if recoup all of money lent out (533), well, lets say 85% is recouped (453) & pay off the debts (482 million) the result is 453-482 = -29 million, ie. 29 of debt unpaid !!!
compared with MCL that is terrible. & imo for solidity of accounts it is also terrible. I would not have lent IPF 492 million, even at 9.75%. (the lenders saw the risk, hence the high % rate).

90% of the money that IPF has out on loan is money it has borrowed (@ 9.75% ) !!

as I posted before, not good.
IPF is in a bad position.
it has little in the way of 'real' assets based on these numbers & the cash it has lent out is basically almost all just borrowed money !!

That infers risk.

SUMMARY
MCL is financially much more solid than IPF & also has about 1/2 of its cap. value as nett cash, & is hence a better investment than IPF imo.
(& MCL is reporting a (reduced) profit for 2020, while IPF reported a noticeable loss)

Also, personally I would not invest in IPF since ~90% of its money out on loan is borrowed money. imo that is a terrible %.
And imo IPF should not pay any divis for a few years because it needs to shore up its accounts imo.
-----

if anyone finds any error in my calcs please let me know, but it looks correct to me

[robinnicolson] 05/3/2021 13:49

Citywire:

International Personal Finance (IPF) has reported a loss for 2020 but it is a better result than expected and the stock is undervalued, says Peel Hunt.

Analyst Stuart Duncan retained his 'buy' recommendation and target price of 165p on the stock, which closed up 13.7%, or 10.8p, at 89.8p on Wednesday.

"The outcome was much better than we expected and the business saw a strong recovery in second half profits," said Duncan.

"Operationally and financially, the business is well-placed to take advantage of improving conditions."

Duncan said the stock was, at time of writing, trading on a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9 times and did not deserve to trade at a 44% discount to net asset value.

"We continue to see significant upside… as ultimately IPF emerges from the current period in a stronger competitive position," he said.