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[stansmith1] 10/12/2022 11:31

interesting

[verymaryhinge] 10/12/2022 00:28

Different audiences.

[stansmith1] 09/12/2022 20:20

ipf3 holding up well?i was quite sure it would drop into the 80s?how can it yield 12% and the maturity before it yield 18?something has to give?

[hindsight] 07/12/2022 09:57

I didnt exchange, simply as 350m 2025 such a higher yield

[tiltonboy] 07/12/2022 07:20

Less than half exchanged!

[quepassa] 06/12/2022 10:13

Wonder how the retail offering of the 12% Notes due 2027 went.

it will be interesting to see what the take-up is. Closed today 10am.

[stansmith1] 28/11/2022 20:08

datamatterswould be great if you posted your thoughts on lemonfool wrt ipf

[stansmith1] 28/11/2022 20:06

datamattersyou are welcome, its a shame the fool is no more, the banking board was fantastic, it was the root of several high profile campaigns that ultimately ended up in the high court - would really direct anyone interested in the definition of irredeemable to some of the discussions in the gilts and bonds sections, so in particular holders of certain prefs :)

[datamatters] 28/11/2022 19:10

@stansmith1: thank you very much for pointing me out to the interesting debate on this on the lemonfool!

@hindsight: I would be delighted to hear some more of your insights.

[stansmith1] 28/11/2022 19:07

lol, have you decided?

[hindsight] 28/11/2022 18:52

Having been a holder of IPF1 and then rolling to IPF2, would just like to say its never been a smooth ride with IPF debt

[stansmith1] 28/11/2022 18:10

datamattersno insight on that unfortunately, however posters i have respected on the fool, now lemonfool for 10+ years have accepted the offer

[datamatters] 28/11/2022 17:54

@stansmith1: Given the 7.75% trading at pretty much par and 9.75% on those 16-19%, my interpretation is there is a substantial worry about refinancing of the 350m 2025 EUR bond over the next few years and at what terms.

In fact, the 9.75% and 7.75% pricing suggests 23.4% implied yiled in the two years 2024&2025. That's a hell of implied probability of loss of capital.

I think the new 12% could be very interesting offer if it indeed trades some 20% lower. What is your insight into availability of these retail notes on the secondary market?

[stansmith1] 28/11/2022 16:28

datamattersthanks, that was what i was getting it, i am inclined to decline their generous offer :)if it trades at 130p anytime soon, of course i will kick myself

[verymaryhinge] 28/11/2022 13:54

so they're bidding higher than they're offering ?

[datamatters] 28/11/2022 12:33

The 350Mn EUR bond is currently quoted on 15.6%-19.5% yild spread. in the GBP bond you would expect some 1-1.5% higher yield as gilt yilds are correspondingly higher. This would make it into 17%-21% range. The retail bonds will have 2 extra years of maturity , however the gilt yiled curve is fairly flat between 2025-27.

So as much as I am intrigued by this offering, I imagine it will trade in the 75-85 range. How liquid this thing will be I have no clue.

I welcome challenge to this prediction.

[spittingbarrel] 27/11/2022 12:05

Don't forget the Wasps bond didn't have an equity cushion above it.

[stansmith1] 26/11/2022 16:19

kickingkingsounds reasonable enough, but i am starting to wonder if it will trade at similar yields to the 350mn bond initially?

[kickingking] 26/11/2022 13:48

Having looked at wasp, I can not agree that if it's too good to be true. Wasp was never in a position to ever make any real profits and buying that bond was a complete gamble. Ipf 12% bond is much safer. Like it's been said, company has been trading for over 25 years. It has not defaulted on it's previous bond.It will be a difficult period coming up in 23, but once that is out of the way and interest rate stabilise, I can see this bond trading at 120p+. With the first year 12p paid, that will be 30%+ to be made. Let's not kid ourself, buying most shares or bond is a gamble. Have decided to place my order with II. Was happy that they were offering it as well and not having to buy via PrimaryBid (as it will be in my ISA).

[jeffian] 17/11/2022 10:49

Anything yielding 12% is telling you something. Whether you choose to ignore that and accept the risk is up to you. I find that the old adage "if it looks too good to be true....." is a good guide. As for the security of bonds vs equity, have a look at what happened to the Wasps rugby club bond.

[1cutandrun] 17/11/2022 07:06

IPF was generated in 1997 but the business goes back a few years more. PFG wanted to expand, so they decided launching Provident into Poland. Once the business became established and viable, they split the company and shares. IPF was born and that's why in Poland they still use the name Provident.

[kickingking] 16/11/2022 16:03

Thanks for your reply. Twenty five years is good. Think I will take the bond.

[tiltonboy] 16/11/2022 14:26

bandit,

In theory, less risk!

kk,

They have been going for 25 years