Instem Share Discussion Threads

[innovation99] 20/9/2002 01:53

Think the 250K was a sell - which lowered the price and the 200,000 and subsequent 50,000 were buys at 23p and 23.5p. Who knows what the sell was about but the shares were moped up and that has to be a positive sign.

PS- not today the 20th Sept no volume sales or buys - so look like a oversold position - buy into weakness as they say.

[cockneyrebel] 19/9/2002 17:15

Don't think it was a sell.

Looks like a buy order for 250K that ticked the price up today.

I'd say the 200k that followed was the sell from later.

Or it is a sell and the 200K's a buy.

Distressed seller - happy buyer I guess.

CR

[michaelicl] 19/9/2002 16:02

1/4 MILLION SALE JUST GONE THROUGH. Anyone care to comment?

[wirralowl] 19/9/2002 13:58

Thanks innovation. You're right - they may be very tempted to go for a MBO at current prices.

[innovation99] 19/9/2002 13:38

Owl - last year it was the 21st Sept so I am expecting them Mon 23rd - have not contacted the company to verify this though. So let say Wed at the lastest - any later and think positive - MBO?

At the last interims they cut a £6m loss to zero and also said it hopes to submit a management buyout proposal to shareholders - although they quashed the MBO later on.

[wirralowl] 19/9/2002 13:11

CR,

What day are the results due next week ?

TIA
WirralOwl

[cockneyrebel] 19/9/2002 13:01

Yep, I've never understood those that chase a stock high but refuse to bu a dip.

These looked craking value at 34p. Now with a third wiped off you have to think at what point wouyld they be a buy. They are now trading at the level of the last results - that was regarded cheap by those that could work out the number. I'd expect the buy signal to be flashing like crazy at these interims if this fall in the share price is just mm markdown on a few small sells.

Lets see next week.

CR

[innovation99] 19/9/2002 12:05

I take a lot on board about INS and the car industry - but their major restructure was just about that - moving away from mass production cars into premium cars for higher margins - Not expecting wonder results - just improving results with the clear strategy for the future.

Of course Infast did described trading in the first five months of the current year as encouraging, with results ahead of last year's strongest period and in line with management's expectations.

Not sure what how one months trading was going to alter that - as for the second half -Hey no company is moving mountains at the moment - but if Profit to cash conversion rate remains INS prime objective and borrowings are being reduced in line with projections, then I think one can expect a pretty sharp upturn from the present price.

[cockneyrebel] 19/9/2002 11:33

Well I've just had 15K this am.

I know I was going to wait till the results are out next week but at thisa level it is plain too cheap, factoring in disaster imo.

I think you're over doing it Utterly - as innovation points out, there's a lot more to this company than the miche car market.

Results are next week according to the company and at this price, risk reward looks very good.

CR

[utterly butterly] 19/9/2002 10:24

Heavier selling today. All looks quite bad to me.

I know they have moved to niche car manufacturers, and Jaguar have reduced production - that's a negative.

The whole motor industry is having a tough time. They supply Perkins too - they are exposed to lorry and coach sales - look at Henlys - diving too. Mayflower is falling.

And where are the results?

[innovation99] 19/9/2002 09:51

I am lost for words - the interims should read well - although I knew the outlook would not be all roses.

So is this just share price weakness or the jitters about outlook - Outlook was never going to be a bed of roses anyway - name one industry that can claim that anyway.

Think positive - P Steinick (CE)brought 1,492,324 share back in March at 27p a share -- Why???

I thought it may have had to do with:

* Successful integration of Fab-Com acquisition in US which has won two
sizeable new contracts with Case New Holland

* New contracts started in UK with BAE Systems, Jaguar 'X' type and
new Mini, expected to add over £10m to turnover in 2002.
In addition a recent award of a contract by Perkins Engines

* The Industrial Division and Premier Automotive Division both
relocated to separate new improved facilities. This allowed
consolidation of four local operations in the Industrial Division

2001 was a year of consolidation and transformation for INS into a focussed Inventory Management Services business, following the disposals of the remaining non-fastener operations and the acquisition of Fab-Com in the USA.

Trading in current financial year is sigificantly ahead of last year (and that was their strongest period). Despite continuing depressed market conditions in both the UK and the USA, sales and profits to date are ahead of the previous year and in line with management's expectations. New business prospects remain encouraging as manufacturers increasingly diversified industries look to Infast's growing range of value added services to help improve their own efficiencies.

No bad news ( from what I can see ) also low volumes - so whilst I have a stop/loss in place - just hope it does not exceed that before the interims either Friday or Monday as I think the present price is not reflecting the strong foothold that have been building over the last two years.

Good luck anyway

[wirralowl] 19/9/2002 09:04

Innovation,

You're also right about the Trading Statement - which I re-read last night. For the first 5 months (of the six months we are awaiting) they stated they were sigificantly ahead of last year (and that was their strongest period). As you say - wouldn't expect one month (even if very poor) to make much of a difference. Must be the short-term outlook people are worrying about. However, as I said last night, sales from all car manufacturers only accounts for a third of turnover, and after re-structuring, this percentage is set to be reduced further. So how significant is it really ?

[wirralowl] 19/9/2002 09:00

I'd like to think so too innovation99, but the price is down again this morning. Does look like MM's know something, but as someone else said - its being forced down on low volume, were bad news to have been leaked, I'd have expected much greater volumes. I've got quite a few of these in an ISA - don't want to sell (as bought for the very long term) but too nervous to add, at least until after the results. Anyway, fingers crossed.

[mick p] 18/9/2002 23:18

sold half INS late Friday and bought ABM, which was nice!

Holding the rest (missed today's falls otherwise might have been tempted to get rid)

Only a small amount now, if the results are good (personally worried about forward projections, maybe bad news US?) then will be kicking myself for not adding....

Will be interesting either way,.......

good luck to all

cheers

[wirralowl] 18/9/2002 22:29

Worried by the talk of Ford possibly squeezing Infast's margins, I've been delving a little to try and find out exactly how much of Infast's turnover could be affected.

Interestingly supplying car manufacturers only accounts for about a third of Infast's total sales (and remember this is not just Ford, but also Jaguar and BMW and the Mini which we know is doing well). Over half of turnover comes from the 'Industrial' division ( serving all manner of companies) with the American Division being about 10% (but growing the fastest).

All in all, when you look at the NAV (45p ish), projected PE (one broker has EPS of 9 pencilled in for next year!) and Divi of nearly 9% (admitedly not well covered) - I think the price fall due to the perceived impact of Ford's actions may be overdone, and it may be as Innovation99 says, a bargain at these prices.

[cockneyrebel] 18/9/2002 21:17

Was holding but jumped out a while back.

Was looking to jump back in but the way the price is moving, and the competition in motor manufacturing means I'm very wary.

So close to the results I think I may as well wait for them. If they are good, what will I have lost? 10% max. On the other hand I could have bought in advance a couple of days ago and lost that just today.

Certainly seems to be something disuading buyers and causing sellers - tend to think the market is often right - bit like AUT this week, price has just drifted lately - bank - then comes the warning yesterday.


CR

[utterly butterly] 18/9/2002 21:07

I sold some today - I think the mm's have got the sniff of bad news.

I have been in this one before and had as much bad news as I can take, enough of their building up investors hopes then letting down.

With the results delayed till the end of the month and all the bad news I'm hearing about Ford squeezing suppliers till the pips squeak, even if the numbers are in line I think they will warn about future trading.

Ford have to get their debt down, it has now been downgraded to junk, they can't raise prices, so yo have to squeeze suppiers - and Ford can squeeze. You have to think this isn't a sector that a lot going for it.

Would have dumped the rest had I known they would fall this much - think we'll see more dumping as investors wonder where the results are.

Will dump the rest this week before they go sub 20p.

I notice Freddy's quiet - he was out yonks ago I bet.

[wirralowl] 18/9/2002 20:19

Thanks innovation

[ursus] 18/9/2002 19:27

i think you're getting them "cheap" because freddy's selling...........

[innovation99] 18/9/2002 19:00

WirralOwl - nothing except the 20,000 ? trade at 15.16 - it was mine and it was a buy. Keep focused on the trading statement - the restructure - the NAV - and buy into weakness - cant believe I got them for 24.25p - I'm beginning to actually like this market now - bargins galore out there - last three stocks I have purchased have been temendous winners for me. I have followed Infast for two years now and they have dug themselves out of a mire and should be on the up

PS - see there was a 25,000 T-trade buy at end of day at 26p

[wirralowl] 18/9/2002 18:05

And another big drop. The recent trading statement indicated things were going well. Anyone know anything ?

[energyi] 15/9/2002 14:44

I believe anyone who reads your comments knows who the w@nker is.

[mr ashley james] 15/9/2002 14:40

Energyi,

I worked in the Insurance Industry from October 1982 to August 1999, I have been buying into Lloyd's Insurance shares since early March 2002, and researching them since mid February 2002 well before you even mentioned the word insurance on a BB, I was ploughing through HSBC and NUMIS reports and speaking to market contacts to get up to date post WTC.

I scarcely need your help to select stocks in a sector I worked in for 17 to 18 years do I?

My word you really are a total w@nker!

Ashley James