Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[doc robinson] 08/6/2017 23:42

25000 late trade buy from earlier??

[mustau] 08/6/2017 23:37

What economy, it's already a disaster.
With your precise prediction can't understand why your not resting in the Bahamas or like??
Bought in around the 90p, taken some off, holding rest.

[zico01] 08/6/2017 23:36

500p + after trading update

[ny boy] 08/6/2017 23:26

Hung parliament will be a disaster for the economy, very difficult period ahead, I would be buying these types of stocks, way over-valued.

Today a few got lucky on dip buying but that is going to end, 263p price target.

[jovi1] 08/6/2017 20:15

che7win

on the 3 company you described I do agree are positive profit growing and I was invested on 2 of them
I sold mcls no long ago to add in idp as you are right about the profit but the like for like is getting worst year on year and without open and acquisition the revenue will get negative don't get me wrong can still be a good investment but is a section of market were the bigger player will continue to squeeze for market share.
otb I like but I never made much money on tourist industry so I keep away even if I have been tempted by otb many times
osb again has been good to me but as the state sold the last share in Lloyds I switch there
IDP: I agree is much more high risk of any of the above but the reward can be exceptional given the market cap
in terms of grow double the sales would be a big miss in the second half, but I believe the grow would be much more.
1st half grow was 125% this has significantly increase in the second half to me is at very least another 25%
among the last year and 1h this year where the us set up cost and move to UK one should provide revenue and another should enlarge profit.
another massive expense in the 1h was marketing 1 mill you would 33% of the cost I don't believe this will raise in that percentage for much longer this will enlarge profit
I do agree on profit is sanity and t/o is vanity but when you start to build a brand spending 33% on revenue generally look good for the future if sales increase in treble digit.
anyhow good luck as long as you not short in that case I hope you loose the lot lol

[ihatemms] 08/6/2017 19:37

Zico01 - eps broker forecast for ye June 17 is £0.7m - hence eps circa 5-6p per share. That will get smashed and I suspect will be nearer 9p. For June 18 eps will get massively upgraded. I suspect your expectation of 25p eps will turn out to be far too low though brokers are usually conservative by nature.Hence from 1 July current Pe could be just 16.

[doc robinson] 08/6/2017 19:36

Great news the 19th should be a very good day. ,!!

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 08/6/2017 19:01

Nice one Croasdalefc.

[croasdalelfc] 08/6/2017 18:55

The 'Amanda Holden' promo video on FB has been viewed 200000 times with a link to a special offer - unfortunately I can't track those sales.Record amounts of stock added today to the SD.com website in anticipation of the weekend sales. Sales have continued to be high all week but unfortunately my work has got in the way of full tracking - even so the sales I have tracked have been high or at record levels every day in June.

[teddy boy1] 08/6/2017 17:26

Didn,t quite make the 400p to-day but it WILL happen to-morrow ,what with the momentum created by the current buying spree PLUS the big CONSERSATIVE majority

[che7win] 08/6/2017 17:07

£20m valuation is about 160p,

hope that helps.

[zico01] 08/6/2017 16:07

Also £100m valuation is about £9 a share

hope that helps

[king kong dong] 08/6/2017 15:52

Scale, my friends, scale....there is no end to the places where you can shift this product.

[zico01] 08/6/2017 15:40

che7win

The company has a lot products if they all take of we could have a valuation close to £1billion.
At the moment £100m + valuation just on the potential Skinny Tan,Body Glow,Haircare products

[kemche] 08/6/2017 15:39

"who knows, you don't, I don't."

I wholeheartedly agree with the last element of that statement!

[che7win] 08/6/2017 15:20

Zico,
yes, and it could be a damp squib, who knows, you don't, I don't.

After all, haven't we all been here before, Boots

[zico01] 08/6/2017 15:17

Matket is expecting EPS for current year ending June 2017 7.0p. These will be substantially upgraded to atleast 10.0P.

For year ending June 2018 i'm expecting EPS in the region of 25.0p. This is a fantastic growth stock which could have market cap of £100m + in the very near future

[doc robinson] 08/6/2017 14:56

Yes looking very strong at present will it close above 4?

[teddy boy1] 08/6/2017 14:15

400p breakthrough ,this afternoon or to-morrow. That's my prediction!

[che7win] 08/6/2017 14:00

melody,
you seem reasonable, I've looked at your GARP stocks in post 5638.
I'm on the look out for GARP stocks, this is my quick thoughts:

rst
Restore - services to offices/workplaces.
Market Cap - 472m
Share price 417p
Gearing 48% - highish
ROCE - 30%, 18% last year - very good
Yield 1.2% forecast

Growth next two years, 3.68% and 13.46% - so average 8.5% per year.
PEG - 5.48 next year, 1.32 year after.

P/E over 20 - I don't see how this is GARP, valuation seems high to me, probably the most interesting of the lot, but I'd be looking at a much lower entry price?

bbox
Tritax REIT PLC operates as a real estate investment trust in the United Kingdom.
Share price - 146p

It's REIT, so not my thing, I haven't looked at valuation here.

hzd
Horizon Discovery Group
Horizon Discovery Group PLC offers shelf products designed to drive research programmes, advance biologic manufacturing,
and improve clinical testing workflows through precisely engineered disease models

Turnover growing nicely and consistently over last 5 years
EBITDA negative and growing over same period however
Profits record negative over same period...

EPS negative forecast, EBITDA finally profitable in 2018.
I'd want to see a history of profits being made, it would suite a more speculative portfolio but not for me.

pct
Don't get it, not my thing - another trust with negative equity, I might be missing something here.


If you want a growth stock, surely something like CAKE fits the bill, growing consistently every year.
I've sold CAKE down recently because of valuation, but it's a quality company - just not GARP at current price. However, I reckon it's growing at 15% a year, I'd be prepared to pay more than that because of it's quality, but patience would be required as it's so highly valued.

For an example of a GARP stock - look at MCLS - slow burn you may think - but growing.
It took over 300 CO-OP stores and might take over more stores from Tesco if the Booker deal goes ahead and Tesco is forced to offload some convenience stores. The Co-op takeover has transformed growth out look:
MCLS
Market cap - £223m
EPS growth - next two years, 16.95% and 32.12% - so average 24.5% per year.
Yield - 5.5%
Share price 200p
2017 EPS forecast: 17.26p, 2018 EPS forecast: 22.8p
P/E for 2016 (actual) - 13.15
P/E for 2017 (estimate)-11.24
P/E for 2018 (estimate)- 8.51

PEG - 0.66 (2017)
0.26 (2018) i.e. well undervalued (due to CO-OP purchase and rationalisation/efficiences).

MCLS looks well undervalued to me - I only noticed it this week and made a purchase for long term holding.

Another GARP - OSB
P/E 11.7 (actual), this year 8.36 forecast, next year 7.6
PEG 0.21 this year.
It is a BTL lender, which is part of the reason - market doesn't understand it.

Last example:
OTB
70% growth over next year and P/E 22.


As for IDP - it's high growth, I agree with everyone here on that.
But is it GARP, that's the question - it's too rich for me - but I have a tighter bias on that than others it seems:
Market cap £44m!
Employees - 14
Forecast £700k or 4.92p EPS.
P/E - 151!
Forecast this years P/E 70!
Seems rather speculative, even if growth is better than Feb forecast.. I agree broker growth is superceded now, but even 50% exceeded, we are talking P/E over 50 for a company with no track record, no USP (SWL is rolling out tan now, everyone will be after these margins).


Conclusion - in all the examples of GARP stocks in this post, I would put OTB, MCLS, OSB above any others. In fairness, IDP is coming from a low base, but then, it has no USP unlike the others and therefore no defensable moat.
IDP might be taken over if a sufficient threat, or alternatively the big boys wipe it out or it becomes a fad which seemed to have stalled growth before with the original founders.

[sogoesit] 08/6/2017 13:20

Added today; looked good on the pull-back.

[teddy boy1] 08/6/2017 12:53

Melf - my mistake! (Slip of the tongue)

[ihatemms] 08/6/2017 12:52

Heavy buying continues - will we see all time highs today?

[melody9999] 08/6/2017 12:46

Teddy - thanks for that. I have about 25 shares in my portfolio and like to balance good long term GARP stocks such as RST, GVC, BBOX, HZD and PCT where I have a high degree of confidence in the company / strategy / market / management / fundamentals .... with others where I identify themes or momentum and jump aboard. But IDP is definitely on the more volatile end of my portfolio which means I need to spend more management time keeping close to it. GLA - whether long long or short short!