Innovaderma Share Discussion Threads

[luminoso] 16/1/2017 13:21

Csm. I am not sure it's only the MMs who are playing with our minds and that's their job anyway. I still wonder why this trading update was so muted and did not mention the US. Why has it restricted itself to trading in the half year ? Even annual reports mention trading performance after their year end. So why not a trading update ? Were they rushed in to the statement by the share price rise ? Hence no recent details ? Or are they currently negotiating with an investor, who wants to make a substantial investment at a lower price ? I am inclined to believe the long term story but too many questions in the here and now unanswered.

[boffster] 16/1/2017 12:48

I'm not taking investment advice from some lad called Rupert who looks about twelve.

[goboy1] 16/1/2017 12:35

www.standard.co.uk/shopping/esbest/beauty/bath-body/7-of-the-best-fake-tans-a3434046.html

[csmwssk12hu] 16/1/2017 12:11

Seems to settled here for now, thing is if you don't believe long term story here you would have sold out this morning which is apparent by some people comments, if you do believe you hold on or add today, that price seems to be 185 at the moment, those that are holding today won't sell tomorrow because we are thinking long term, those that sold today will never come back or be paying higher to get them back, I won't be surprised at a 20% rise this week from here, I am surprised at price movement on 80% growth though mms playing games with your heart and mind imho dyor

[reallyrich] 16/1/2017 12:10

Self tanning products will not sell in China or South Korea or many of the other Asia countries. The reason being that they all want to have white skin which is very important for their status. They spend billions on whitening products, so self tanning will not sell here.

I live out here so I know.

[nw99] 16/1/2017 11:59

I mentioned it earlier hence why I have taken a big position

[csmwssk12hu] 16/1/2017 11:55

That's a good point hot, someone like cussons may take out to defend position

[hottingup] 16/1/2017 11:52

£62m was paid by Cussons for St Tropez self tanner on revenues of £20m and IDP could soon match and exceed those revenues, factoring in the contribution from the distribution agreement with PROS International for south-east Asia, etc.

Apparently St Tropez's margins were only about 34% when sold whereas IDP have margins of 57% (i.e. 67% better) and that will increase further with manufacturing starting in the UK in Dec 2016.

[longshanks] 16/1/2017 11:48

The RNS was somewhat subdued given the much more bullish tone used in October. Disappointing that they don't give more details - preferring only to quote a percentage year-on-Year increase in sales which makes it difficult to assess how good performance actually has been.Sales to US are by and large not included but one would have hoped for some detailed info in the TU on how that market is developing. The absence of sufficient info could be naivety on the part of the BoD (and they do strike me as being lacking in corporate nouse) but it also raises alarm bells for me.I agree with your sentiments Luminoso- better to wait a while before committing.

[csmwssk12hu] 16/1/2017 11:44

It's £3m revenue for the first half, that's not the annual revenue, sales are weighted heavily towards second half, it's high margin , profitable last year, sales running 80% ahead of last year which will mean they will make more money this year, so ok let's say sales continue to rise 80% this year, 70% next year, 60% the year after etc, where do you think this will be in two years and five years time, I'm not concerned by 80% growth, this product market attracts high valuations as shown by loreal take over last week, 1.3bn paid for 168m revenues, growth of 80% means apx $15m sales that would be $120m valuation, these are now extremely cheap imho and hence I have bought more today, they will be a lot higher shortly, you could sell all you wanted earlier, but you can't buy all you want, that tells me mms are building a stake to take higher imho dyor

[luminoso] 16/1/2017 11:33

Growth not what I expected or market for that matter. Will need to finance stronger growth so a placing may well come sooner rather than later. I am out for now, but will look to get back in after any funding exercise / good news on US trading.

[boffster] 16/1/2017 11:32

I'd like to see the fine print of that PROS deal. No-one would be daft enough to sign up for that. There'll be some get-out clauses I would imagine. If skinny tan isn't doing all that well here, as today's number's suggest, then how will it do well in Asia where most folk are of a darker complexion

[hottingup] 16/1/2017 11:27

goboy thanks. I will include the figures in the heading.

[boffster] 16/1/2017 11:25

Goboy,

You are WRONG mate! looking back you need to work on a constant currency basis.

Looking back using today's exchange rates, revenue to June 16 was £5.3m as I already said.

You're just going back and looking at the reported figures at the time, which flatters the most recent 6 months due to the currency shift

[goboy1] 16/1/2017 11:21

The Trading Update on 10/10/2016 gives previous figures (and AU $ to UK £ conversions) from which we can compile a comparison.

Revenues 6 months to 31/12/2016 (Jul - Dec 2016) = £3.0m (Announced 16/1/2016)

Revenues 12 months to 30/6/2016 (Jul 2015 - Jun 2016) = AU $8.3m = £4.2m (Trading Update, 10/10/2016, incl. conversion rate AU$ to £)

Revenues 12 months to 30/6/2015 (Jul 2014 - Jun 2015) = AU $1.05m = £0.525m (Trading Update, 10/10/2016, incl. conversion rate AU$ to £)

So revenues are clearly growing.

N.B.
For 2017 & 2018 add minimum revenues to IDP from PROS for SE Asia of:

US $10m for 2017 = £8.1m
US $20m for 2018 = £16.2m

(US $1 = £0.81 on 5/1/2017)

And even more for USA, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zeland, South Africa, etc.

[bad gateway] 16/1/2017 11:16

Boffster
16 Jan '17 - 10:54 - 1866 of 1867 0 1
There's been no major shift in AUD / GBP conversion rate since results released.

GBP hasn't been worth that much since June

You sure on that one Boffster only Netdanias showing a large drop in the £ against the AUD since Sept 2015 with the £ dropping off a cliff last june?

[goboy1] 16/1/2017 11:14

Revenues for 6 months to 31/12/2016 (Jul - Dec 2016) = £3.0m (Announced 16/1/2016)

Revenues for 12 months to 30/6/2016 (Jul 2015 - Jun 2016) = AU $8.3m = £4.2m (Trading Update 10/10/2016, incl. conversion rate AU$ to £)

Revenues for 12 months to 30/6/2015 (Jul 2014 - Jun 2015) = AU $1.05m = £0.525m (Trading Update 10/10/2016, incl. conversion rate AU$ to £)

So revenues are clearly growing.

N.B.
For 2017 & 2018 add minimum revenues to IDP from PROS for SE Asia of:

US $10m for 2017 = £8.1m
US $20m for 2018 = £16.2m

(US $1 = £0.81 on 5/1/2017)

And even more for USA, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zeland, South Africa, etc.

[boffster] 16/1/2017 11:13

If someone can explain to me why, far from revenue growing, it fell in the second half of last year as I've clearly shown.

No justification for ridiculous P/E ratio and sub £1 a possibility, sub £1.50 very likely IMO

[andyr42] 16/1/2017 11:01

Boffster you are missing the point. The company is still in its infancy, building infrastructure and marketing products. To get to this stage is remarkable really. If you only have the foresight to look ahead 2-3 years instead being stuck on short term revenues then you will do well. You are really being very mischievous, hence you should leave if you can't see the big pic. You may have presented retrospective data but you are really in need to develop the aptitude for strategy and growth.

[boffster] 16/1/2017 10:54

There's been no major shift in AUD / GBP conversion rate since results released.

GBP hasn't been worth that much since June

[hottingup] 16/1/2017 10:54

Superdrug website on Monday 16/1/2017 at 10.53 am:

95 Self Tan products listed.

Skinny Tan products in positions 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9 & 10, ranked by Best Seller, i.e. occupying 7 of the top 10 positions.

Nearest St Tropez product is at position 21.

www.superdrug.com/Skin/Fake-Tan-%26-Bronzing/Self-Tan/c/pt_skin_self_tan?resultsForPage=60&q=%3AbestBiz&minSel=2.0&maxSel=45.0&minSlider=2.0&;maxSlider=45.0&resultsForPage=20&text=#

[croasdalelfc] 16/1/2017 10:51

Bookbrooker - rampers in pampers springs to mind

[bookbroker] 16/1/2017 10:46

Do we have some children on this thread, Falia springs to mind, behaves like a ten year old, there need to be rigorous checks on illegal gambling by juveniles these days!