India Capital Growth Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 05/1/2021 12:22

Goodness, I thought I was alone. India should do well. It seems to have good post-Covid momentum if it can get to Spring before the new variant takes hold there and it is in the middle of a huge Modi infrastructure boom as it recovers from an Indian version of recession. The A-road build out should bring in loads of new external investment in years ahead as well as stimulating a huge boom in domestic demand for such as cars, holidays and second homes from the middle classes. I suspect the Rupee will strengthen for the next year or two as a bonus. Maybe, I'm being optimistic but I think there's been enough gloom for a few years.

[stonesfan] 05/1/2021 12:08

Makes no sense to me, Aleman. I'm in and enjoying the ride. Emerging markets like India are in a decent uptrend and imv this is one of the best ways to play it. DYOR, etc.

[aleman] 05/1/2021 10:06

NAV at a new high of 99.7p so tender offer in 11 months would be 93.72p or higher if there were no change until then. Yet people are selling for 83p+?

[aleman] 09/12/2020 15:59

Actually, I should point out that was based on the offer price for new investors. The buffer for those that are already in and choose to stay as far as the tender offer works out around 16%. (92p/79.2p) It's baffling why anyone would sell with that sort of subsidy over 12 months. You'd expect the gap to close very quickly. In practice, the discount has been closing at about 1-1.5% per month.

[aleman] 09/12/2020 11:23

NAV just shy of 98p. That's still a buffer of around 11.5% to a tender offer at 6% below NAV in a year's time.

[aleman] 30/11/2020 13:44

NAV has jumped a bit to 95.4p.

[aleman] 18/11/2020 08:22

Not certain but NAV of 91.03p could be highest for 15 months.

[davvero] 16/11/2020 10:21

tiltonboy

thank you. Good luck

[tiltonboy] 16/11/2020 09:18

davvero,

No, it means you can sell part of your holding at a 6% discount to the NAV at the prevailing time. That would be the quivalent of 84.6p if it were today. A healthy premium to the current share price.

[aleman] 16/11/2020 09:08

Directors are obliged to make a redemption offer. They have discretion over whether to accept applications or not. They can decide not to proceed if they feel it is not in the company's best interests. I presume they would scale it back to a partial tender offer if demand was high.

[ec2] 16/11/2020 08:20

My slight concern is that the buyback option may not be as good as it appears at face value. If large numbers of holders take up the offer the fund will only be able to offload the required number of underlyings at heavily discounted prices particularly as the underlyings are made up of small and in some cases less liquid stocks. It raises the same kind of issues that unit trusts have in that they have to sell their best stocks for which there is better liquidity in order to meet redemptions.

[davvero] 16/11/2020 00:23

@cgequityinvest

thanks, very useful info about Stevenson info especially as I am not a Sharepad member... As a long holder I am amazed at IGC comeback YTD.... I'll stick with it at least until the Pandemic is over.... "buyback at a max 6% NAV discount in Dec 21?"... Does it mean you can buy more shares on that day and you get a max discount of 6% on the share price?...

[cgequityinvest] 15/11/2020 22:34

Excellent article (13th Nov) by David Stevenson on Sharepad platform. He has selected IGC as one of his 35 dynamic funds. Long article but essentially he believes the small/mid cap market in india has good potential over the next few years and the potential buyback at a max 6% NAV discount in Dec 21 provides some protection.

[aleman] 09/11/2020 08:11

NAV still going well at 89.31p. Shares 73.4p. Discount 17.8% even though there is a tender offer at a maximum 6% discount in 13 months.

[aleman] 12/8/2020 08:59

NAV going very well at 78.46p. Shares 63.1p. Discount is 19.6% even though there is a tender offer at a maximum 6% discount in 16 months.

[aleman] 10/8/2020 15:55

Slow but sure. 75.69p.

Covid is fading in India generally (having peaked in the bigger cities at the end of June). New cases might still be rising but that's because testing numbers has been increasing even faster. The hit rate is falling from it's July 26th peak so that date is likely to have been somewhere near the actual the peak infection. Hospital numbers in the USA's wave 2 peaked about a week or so after (July 20th) its peak testing hit rate (Jul 12th) on testing, and deaths peaked about 3 weeks later (Aug 1st). This means Indian deaths should peak in about a week and confirm that peak infection was in July. The regime of local lock-downs should then ease. They are probably already seeing the improving hospital situation, which is driving shares. Mumbai hospital admissions were down 80% at the start of last month.

[aleman] 24/7/2020 16:14

NAV is creeping up still. 73.46p is a new high. Share price is creeping up faster.

[aleman] 23/7/2020 12:06

I've topped up today. I like the trends. NAV is creeping up despite the virus raging in India. I'm not sure but I think the discount is slowly closing with the motions passed to try bring that about. Also, the news that the virus has fallen away in the big cities like Delhi and Mumbai makes any damaging economic actions much less likely. Seemingly high levels of immunity in Delhi bode well.



Delhi peaked at over 4000 cases per day back in late June when the study was done . It's now under 1000. Given antibodies don't show for a couple of weeks and they fade from around 3 weeks so that some no longer test positive, and that studies show many fight it off without generating antibodies at all, it is possible more than 50% have had it in Delhi by late June, which would be why it's dying out.

This means India can soon get back on track with its economic recovery from the 2018 slowdown, even though the virus is raging through smaller towns and rural areas.

[aleman] 21/7/2020 12:03

New high for NAV - 73.36p. Markets seem to approve of the regional "social" lockdowns despite the virus raging. Everything shut over the weekend but business open most weekdays, with full lockdown and road closures for worst hit pockets. Why did we not do that?

[aleman] 22/6/2020 13:50

68.31p NAV is highest for a while.

[aleman] 03/6/2020 12:15

India smallcaps on a good run at the moment - up again.

[aleman] 02/6/2020 15:44

Shares up to 50p but NAV up further to 65.89p. With an imminent continuation vote in prospect and a tender offer in 18 months at no more than 6% discount compared to the current 24%, that means the shares would need to rise about 24% to meet the current minimum tender price of 62p+ and 30%+ to meet a likely winding up NAV. Whilst Indian smallcaps are always going to be volatile, the prospect of a narrowing discount either way greatly improves the short to medium term odds. I've topped up my recent purchase.