Ideagen Share Discussion Threads

[yump] 07/1/2014 11:07

I think if there are any clues that IDEA are going to get anywhere approaching 2p earnings, then 40p is on the cards: ie p/e 20 x 2 and any return to anywhere near 30p is going to look very cheap.

Reliability in building proper value in a business always gets rewarded with a higher p/e.

Also for my part I would never sell shares in a company where the share price has started 'stepping', with no drop-off after previous steps. It surely shows firm investors.

[woodcutter] 06/1/2014 14:47

b2 i took about 4K of ANP shares off the table early on. Over the last two years my TA knowledge has improved immeasurably and although i don't always get it right i'm buying on fundamentals coupled with TA but only selling based on TA.

This is now my approach for bull markets, i may modify it for bear markets.

Buying on Broker forecast and fundamentals seems to work fine, finding an entry point using TA. But after a significant share price rise although the forecasts and per might look toppy (as in the case of ANP where it has not only caught up with it's peers but exceeded them) there's always a few that drive the share price to silly levels so i wont sell on FA or forecasts, using TA i stay in the trend longer. When the TA gives a reversal signal i get out or top slice.

The gap down this morning in ANP was a warning sign that could not be overlooked, i'm watching now for a reversal to add back what i sold as i think longer term the prospects are excellent. It is effectively and hopefully a swing trade.

Same here with IDEA the engulfing candle on friday on no news was a big step up in share price and it also gapped down today at open. And whist it's a sound business it's way out side the bollingers and historically when this has happened IDEA has retraced back to at least the 21 day EMA so i sold. It doesn't retrace much but a few pence is all i need to get back in again provided i get the right signal.

Woody

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 12:51

Back into positive territory again.

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 12:42

Good luck Woodcutter, i see you knocked ANP with your selling :))

[woodcutter] 06/1/2014 12:40

I've sold too this morning for quick 20% profit. It's way outside the bollinger bands and likely to retrace imv.But as always i could be wrong.

Been selling quite a bit this morning some ANP, GPK and all my IDEA

Woody

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 11:29

I'm more than happy to wait until the 14th but good luck with your profits chris.

[chrisgail] 06/1/2014 09:53

I've taken my profits, too much, too quickly, I'll reinvest if it falls back to about 30p

[battlebus2] 06/1/2014 09:17

Can't get a quote online to buy £500 worth so tick up coming.

[contrarian2investor] 03/1/2014 21:47

contrarian2investor - 06 Nov 2013 - 08:40:50 - 26658 of 27873 (on SHA thread)
The numbers from IDEAGEN look interesting. So I had a nibble, could be further growth to come. c2i

------------------

Hi all,
I thought I had come to the party a little late, paying just shy of 24p. However in hindsight I should have added to my holding after the Pentana acquisition.

The spike today and the 2013 review below, makes me feel much more comfortable that the IDEAGEN bus could in fact just be leaving the station. Half year results on January 14th will either confirm my new found confidence in IDEAGEN or bring me back down to earth. GLA c2i

hxxp://www.4-traders.com/IDEAGEN-PLC-6677139/news/Ideagen-PLC--2013-in-Review-17619388/

[glasshalfull] 03/1/2014 17:51

I rarely comment on day to day performance but break my silence today to simply say...wow!

Logged on this evening to find IDEA +17% (or +13% depending on closing auction disparity). I'm expecting EPS growth to appear lower than underlying performance in the current year due to the fundraise & increase in shares issued during Dec 2012, but with recent acquisition of Pentana in Nov 2013 making a contribution I'm hoping for 10-15% increase in EPS in the current year that will accelerate in 2014/15 to c.25% earning growth.

As I noted a few posts back, they have a fantastic opportunity to gain significant traction with NHS trusts and it's not too fanciful to envisage a time when they achieve the scale that marks them out as an acquisition target.

Meanwhile the EPS growth metrics I've mentioned could prove conservative with IDEAs cash in hand being put to good use with further earnings enhancing acquisitions; traction in other markets; cross selling opportunities; improving margins.

O/T

BB2 - Noticed you took the plunge on SPRP ;-) Hope it proves profitable...fantastic management and product range. More I think about it, distinct similarities to IDEA in number of respects.

Regards,
GHF

Twitter@glasshalfull1

[battlebus2] 03/1/2014 17:16

Loverly day Cheshire Man :))

[chrisgail] 03/1/2014 15:03

This is all very nice, is good news leaking out?

[cheshire man] 03/1/2014 13:52

Moving up again,,,,,,,,,,,:-)

[cheshire man] 02/1/2014 13:06

Indeed battlebus,,,,,,,,,,,:-)

[battlebus2] 02/1/2014 12:52

Getting bought up before the upcoming results.

[battlebus2] 19/12/2013 23:24

Thanks for your post GHF what an amazing year it has been and like you say well done Ideagen not many company's have been so active.

Oh you forgot January 2014.

Ideagen reports substansial increase in EBITDA and a maiden dividend.

[glasshalfull] 19/12/2013 22:13

Nice Summary of Ideagen's year & I reckon management & staff deserve a "well done" following the positive development of the company and execution of excellent bolt-on acquisitions.



2013 has been an exciting year for Ideagen. New acquisitions, product launches, events and latest product versions releases made this year extra special for all of us at Ideagen. See what we were up to in 2013.

January

Ideagen announces the acquisition of Plumtree Group, one of the UK's leading information management companies dedicated to the NHS market

Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust improves efficiency and patient information after deploying dartCapture and B-forms system from Ideagen

February

Raytheon implements Ideagen's quality management solution, Workbench Professional

Tiptree reaps the rewards of using Workbench

March

NHS Forth Valley chooses a market leading order communications system from Ideagen, dartOCM

East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust purchases two additional
modules from our dartOCM suite; phlebotomy and consumables ordering modules

Path Links Pathology Service orders consumables ordering module from Ideagen

Lincolnshire Community Health Services NHS Trust implements dartICS, infections control system

April

Estee Lauder improves their in-house training processes at their UK manufacturing facility by moving from a paper-based system to the Workbench Professional Training module

Knauf Insulations adds a new language database to their pan-European health and safety portal in Workbench Professional system

Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust signs up for Ideagen's dartKW (previously known as dartEDM) and dartOCM software

Southend Hospital NHS Foundation Trust orders dartKW and five dartQSCANS for scanning and archiving Pathology request forms

Ideagen wins a Transaction of the Year Award

New website launch

Ideagen teams up with Koala Publishing Ltd to promote a document management and workflow solution, Knowledge Worker to the aeronautical and aerospace sector

May

A new version of a document and capture solution, dartQSCAN, version 3 release
Ideagen adopts Microsoft apprenticeship scheme

June

Ideagen launches its first customer compliance conference, #ICCC2013

The Group announces excellent financial results - turnover increase by 62% to £6.5m and an operating profit (EBITDA) up to 70%, to £2m

Ideagen launches a webinar on Quality Management Systems

Latest version of Workbench, version 11, release

July

Ideagen acquires M.S.S Management Systems Services Ltd., a leading supplier of Emergency and unscheduled software care solutions to the NHS

Ideagen launches, exclusive for customers, series of Workbench v 11 webinars

August

Heatherwood and Wexham Park Hospital implements Ideagen's Patient First, Emergency Department system

Ideagen releases Workbench v 11 service pack

September

Ideagen launches a series of training courses in Workbench v 11

Launch of a new series of customer-focused webinars in Workbench v 11 modules

October

Ideagen launches a new version of process mapping software, Allclear 2013

Ideagen launches Dashboards webinars

Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust implements dartKW solution

dartViewer becomes an obvious choice for authorising results in North Wales NHS Trust's laboratory

Andrew Weir Shipping obtains full MLC compliance using Ideagen's Quality Workbench Audits, Document Control, NCR's and Training modules

November

Ideagen hosts the Benefits of an Integrated Quality Management System Business Briefing in London

Ideagen hosts the first healthcare customer conference, #ICHC2013

Ideagen acquires an audit and risk management firm, Pentana

Ideagen's risk and management division, Pentana, releases Pentana Vision version 3 to Ideagen customers

December

Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Foundation Trust chooses dartKW solution for electronic document management of medical records

Ideagen launches Validation Services

British Antarctic Survey implements document management solution, Workbench Professional and offline document viewing software, Solus

---

Regards,
GHF

[glasshalfull] 16/12/2013 08:52

An interesting snippet on IDEAs latest blog post indicating a further NHS Trust deal with Doncaster and Bassetlaw NHS Foundation Trust



I've subsequently contacted the company who indicate that this is a pilot and they will announce when/if it moves to a trust wide deal.

Ideagen noted a strong pipeline with NHS Trusts in recent communication with the market - 166 within England - & the first few contract announcements they've flagged indicate this is a fantastic opportunity for the company;

* New contract with Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust worth approx £300k for the supply of the Company's proprietary dartEDM document management solution.

* New contract with Central Manchester University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
- worth an initial £400k for the supply of the Company's proprietary dartEDM electronic medical record solution of which approximately £380k will be recognised in the current financial year.

The beauty of these deals is the annual recurring revenue element that equates to c.20% of the original deal value.

Results will be released on 14/01/14

Regards
GHF

[yump] 11/12/2013 09:50

Techno20

Think we've just got different strategies. I just hold until the business has a hiccup or is blatently overvalued or spiked share price Based on the observation that the good businesses can command much higher p/e's than look comfortable on the basis of earnings/earnings growth. I've always presumed that's because you get an extra 5-10 on the p/e for the quality of the business. Yet to be totally proved here of course. The proof or not will be in how those acquisitions work out this year I think.

With the apparent quality of the business though, a p/e less than 15 would seem very cheap to me, even if the business isn't immediately growing at that rate.

[themachine99] 10/12/2013 21:19

The earnings growth this year is modest primarily because of the large fund raise completed last year. The EPS growth is forecast to increase by over 20% in 2014-2015. As the company has a very good track record of achieving the market forecasts this looks realistic... Factor in another earnings enhancing acquisition in 2014 from existing cash reserves and that eps growth could be greater than 20%.

[chizgreen68] 10/12/2013 20:32

which part of Chiswick, the mall? ;00

[techno20] 10/12/2013 20:23

BB / yump,

Each investor has their own view on what constitutes value, and in my mind a p/e of 16.7 for a business forecast to deliver eps growth of 8% in the current year, feels up with events. This may well prove to be good value, but versus the other stocks I'm invested in, Idea was the least likely IMO to deliver short term appreciation.

The business is also smaller than my normal threshold. In reality t/o is little more than the value of a few terraces in Chiswick, yet they are trying to service a very broad range of verticals. Is this realistic or are they trying to do too much??

People closer than me to the model will have a better view of whether this is a justified concern, but it was part of my thinking on deciding to exit for the moment.

As with L666, the risk:reward equation would look better at 22-23p.

Techno

[yump] 10/12/2013 16:15

Surely if your gain target was set 12 months ago, it should get revised upwards if the company is growing ? Unless the rating on current forecasts is now way over what it was 12 months ago based on the then current forecasts ?

Obviously up to you but I don't get it, unless your general strategy is 45% and then out regardless.

If the company reliably grows for years, it takes you out of the compounded gains.

[lanzarote666] 10/12/2013 16:10

T20, I too sold my holding last week.

I have been a big fan of this company since last year but a 45% increase over 12 months and having reached my pre-determined target gave me the chance to review.

I see fair value somewhere between 27p-32p so have gone looking for something undervalued that maybe a little more racier.

Don't get me wrong, I like IDEA and think it will grow. With the recurring income and acquisitions there should mean there is plenty of profit left on the table for others. Just a contrarian view.

If Mr Market gives me the chance to return at sub 23.5p then I may well be back!

[yump] 10/12/2013 10:40

In an improving economy, with a company growing solidly, that's still smallish, what sort of rating would be expected.

I reckon 20 and until something in that mix changes, that's what I'm waiting for each year. 20x next year's earnings, this year or towards the end of or just after current year end at the latest.