Seneca Growth Capital Vct Share Discussion Threads

[jonesy100] 03/6/2021 15:00

Hi Rivaldo, I am not sure about the cash position. My last review had cash at around 750k after SCLP sales and some liabilities for accrual of performance fees which were difficult to work out. All told, I have new NAV somewhere between 40-45p before the distribution.

[rivaldo] 03/6/2021 11:08

RNS - another 4p dividend coming our way on June 25th....

[rivaldo] 03/6/2021 09:29

Nice IPO debut for AREC. At the current 247p that would value HYG's stake at almost £0.5m.

HYG have 12m SCLP shares, which at the current 19p are worth £2.28m.

There's also around £1.5m cash, plus holdings in Fuel 3D and Insese worth £320k.

That's around £4.6m of NAV, i.e 57p per share.

The share price is now at quite a discount assuming my calculations are correct (my only query is did the 5/10/20 £400,000 5p dividend come out of that cash pile?).

[jonesy100] 03/6/2021 07:59

I think you are broadly right Rivaldo. I reached similar conclusion this morning. I made a mistake previously in not accounting for the major impact of the placing. Wonder if HYG subscribed.

[rivaldo] 03/6/2021 07:33

Timbo et al, have you or can you work out roughly what HYG's shareholding is now in Arecor at the new £62.5m m/cap? There are 27,683,532 shares now in issue, and there were 18.83m in issue pre-placing. Did HYG have 1.1% of that 18.83m shares?

At 226p your prior calculation indicates a valuation of around £0.44m to HYG, which would be about right on that basis.

[rivaldo] 03/6/2021 07:17

First day of dealings for Arecor today as confirmed here, at 226p under the symbol AREC:

[timbo003] 02/6/2021 11:30

Thanks SBP, I hadn't picked up on that.

[stupidboypike] 02/6/2021 09:43

Timbo, I guess you know, but the admission date for Arecor is 3rd of June not 2nd.



Best regards SBP

[stupidboypike] 27/5/2021 14:46

This is probably the kiss of death, but I have added a thread for Arecor here:-

[timbo003] 27/5/2021 12:19

>>>sbp

Yes, a 30% rise from 226p means the charity target becomes 294p, I think Panmure Gordon have played this rather well and priced the IPO quite keenly to generate some post-IPO demand and after the scale back I guess I will be joining any buyers (looking to get some for my SIPP) if the price remains around the IPO price.

[stupidboypike] 27/5/2021 11:39

Thanks for that info Timbo, I had some of it but not all. Looks like our 30% increase target got a little easier to achieve! Best regards SBP

[timbo003] 27/5/2021 09:45

I received my allocation notification yesterday along with other information. There was scale back on all allocations for all investors in the IPO

Existing shareholders scaled back to 60%
New investors scaled back more (depending on broker and other circumstances)
I was scaled back to 34% (I would have liked more, but cannot complain under the circumstances)

Amount raised: £20m
IPO price: 226p (market cap circa £65m)
IPO date: June 2nd
Ticker Code: AREC

[timbo003] 25/5/2021 09:15

>>>>SPB 👍👍👍


>>>All

I have now read and reread the relevant parts of the invetor roadshow slides and the draft AIM prospectus and I think I have now (at last) got my head around the likely valuation of the HYG stakes in Arecor following the IPO price (and also the value of the Oxford Tech VCT stakes in Arecor)

Based on the info available

* £4.4m CLN conversion at a 10% discount
* £20m new money
* 250p/share IPO
* £70m post IPO valuation at 250p/share

I come up with the following valuations for each of the four VCTs



The Hygea and Ox Tech VCT numbers do not correspond exactly and I'm not sure why that is, perhaps it is the different reporting dates and methods for HYG vs OX VCTs? but I am reasonably confident that the post IPO values in the table will be fairly close to reality.

[stupidboypike] 24/5/2021 15:07

Hi timbo, fabulous. I'll match your £200 to charity if Arecor increases by 30% or more by 31 Dec 2021. Like you, I believe there is a good chance of paying out here!! I'll watch your slot tomorrow if I get time. Best regards SBP

[timbo003] 24/5/2021 14:54

I have now been offered the opportunity to take one of the charity pledge slots at tomorrow night's Mello Healthcare Webinar, so I thought I would go for Arecor as it will be new to most investors (so hopefully of interest) . I will mention (if I remember) that investors can take a position in Arecor before the IPO by investing in one of the Oxford Tech VCTs or Hygea VCT

My charitable pledge is for £200 if Arecor increase to 325p/share by December 31st 2021 (a 30% increase from the IPO price). I feel reasonably confident that I will need to get the cheque book out to fulfil the pledge

I am sandwiched between the presentations by Angle and Polarien, I hold both of those two, so I am looking forward to it.

The agenda is below for anyone interested, there is a 70% off discount code ( TGDisc ) for anyone who wishes to attend

[jonesy100] 24/5/2021 14:01

Agree Rivaldo about lack of communication from HYG. They are not very proactive and I have some issues with the way they have handled the portfolio over past few years. I wonder whether they are getting ready for a further distribution once Arecor floats. Sitting on quite a bit of cash from SCLP slicing and not clear what they intend to do with it.

[timbo003] 24/5/2021 12:06

Thank you SBP

Alas, I am not (quite) a shareholder, but I should hear on my allocation later this week. I am kicking myself for not investing back in 2018 when I had the opportunity to invest alongside Calculus, Downing and the Oxford Techs.

Fortunately I do have a meaningful (indirect) interest already mainly through Hygea, Oxford Tech 2 and Oxford Tech 3 VCTs where Arecor represents a very sizeable chunk of their investment protfolios and also two Albion VCTs (Crown Place and Kings Arms yard) where the Arecor shareholding is less substantial, although I hold a decent amount of these two VCTs.

[stupidboypike] 24/5/2021 07:16

timbo,

Welcome onboard at Arecor (or do you already hold?), delighted to have your company. I'm increasing my holding by around 50% as I really do like the story at Arecor. All of the excitement of the in house developments, and all of the safety of the day to day business like the collaboration with Lilly you mention. I have a 3 to 4 year timeline, having already held Arecor shares since 2007. I had also thought about the Lilly connection in light of the insulin products being developed.

Best regards SBP

[timbo003] 22/5/2021 18:55

I have now applied for a few Arecor shares in the IPO.

The post money valuation should be around £70m which will correspond to around 250p/share (after the existing shares have consolidated into a single class and a five for one division)

The Lilly news could be very significant as they are one of the three principle suppliers of insulin in the developed world (the other two are Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi). Could they be eventual partners for Arecor's in house Insulin development products?

[rivaldo] 20/5/2021 11:19

Excellent news - that should get Arecor's IPO price up nicely!

[stupidboypike] 20/5/2021 09:38

The hits keep coming at Arecor:-
hxxps://arecor.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ARECOR-ANNOUNCES-AN-EXCLUSIVE-FORMULATION-STUDY-COLLABORATION-WITH-LILLY-19.05.21.pdf

Best regards SBP

[timbo003] 18/5/2021 22:31

>>>>Rivaldo/Jonesy

There appears to have been some dilution during 2020, but I cannot be sure it entirely accounts for a fall from 1.3% to 1.1% ownership. During the calender year the total number of shares increased from 2,563,973 to 2,713,559 (it has since gone up to 2,778,011). It looks like this is mainly down to the exercise of options and warrants:


When doing the calulations on the effect on Hugea's NAV from these dilutions, it is also worth noting that there are £4.4m of CLNs to convert at a 10% discount to the eventual IPO price and the company is going to raise cash from new investors at the IPO, which I believe will be around £20m.

[rivaldo] 18/5/2021 10:43

I note that the various Oxford Technology VCTs have issued RNS's about the Arecor IPO. For example, here's OXF's - their share price has increased by 50% this morning!

Why haven't HYG done the same - the increase in valuation is obviously material to the £2.6m m/cap. They just need to lift the wording from OX4's RNS....

[rivaldo] 17/5/2021 08:30

Congrats notsostupidboypike :o)) You must be in for some serious gains I'd have thought.

Confirmation here that Arecor's IPO is expected in "early June":



Jonesy100, I was using HYG's last reported NAV of 37.6p NAV at 5th Oct'20, when SCLP were 16.5p. Also, HYG had 1.3% ownership of Arecor at July'20's results. Perhaps you have more up to date info.