Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 31/8/2017 14:32

I agree, the Directors, including the new ones know the value of the Company and no doubt agree with the Chairman who recently said:-

"“Chi-Med̵7;s consistent strategy over the past 16 years has generated considerable shareholder value, and we believe it is now poised to deliver substantially more."

I couldn't agree more and the 2000% delivered in the last 10 years will be conservative compared to what we will see in the next 10 years. I have absolutely no doubt about that. The following news is still due:-

Savolitinib - AZ descision on strategy for Phase III registration and potential Breakthrough Therapy

Fruquintinib -
Phase III FRESCO study full data sub-group analysis in third-line CRC;
Complete enrollment of Phase III FALUCA study in third-line NSCLC;
Initiate China Phase III study in second-line gastric cancer patients;
Initiate U.S. Phase I bridging study in Caucasian patients.

Sulfatinib -
Initiate China Phase III study in first-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients with brain metastasis;
Initiate China Phase II study in glioblastoma (primary brain cancer).

Sulfatinib -
Initiate Phase II expansion study in NET patients in the U.S.

Plus of course we have some potential things which could impact positively on FY17 guidance

[mad foetus] 31/8/2017 13:49

Chinese have different timescales often. I suspect they are seeking a tenfold increase over the next 5 years. For a company so large and with so much potential we are still well under the radar imo

[rabiddog] 31/8/2017 13:41

Depends what you mean by game changing. Takeover I'd tend to agree but likely good news on drug research wouldn't really count. Lots of positive news generally available publicaly. It is likely he is buying for the longer term though so near term news less impactful.

[nhb001] 31/8/2017 13:31

I would caution that patience is needed. I doubt a Director could be buying should he be aware of a game changing announcement to be imminent. No?

[mad foetus] 31/8/2017 12:29

Rarely has anything been signalled so clearly. Loaded and ready for ignition

[melf] 31/8/2017 10:25

More director buying....the message is clear :-)

[nerdofsteel] 24/8/2017 17:03

Interesting EBITDA and DCF forecast here:-

hxxps://finbox.io/HCM/models/dcf-revenue-exit-5yr

Rather intriguing for me because the rev forecasts tie in very closely with my own model:-

FY18 $271m EBITDA -$31m
FY19 $308m EBITDA -$17m
FY20 $474m EBITDA +$71m
FY21 $683m EBITDA +$154m

FCF forecasted at $151m for FY21, now that is a prospect I am really looking forward to!

[nerdofsteel] 24/8/2017 08:44

thanks Melf :o-)

Agreed about the herd!

The most attractive thing for me about Chi-Med is that there's a very clear roadmap to big revs and profit, together with a detailed strategy which is being flawlessly executed. Their track record is exemplary and over 200% in the last 10 years. A great investment for anyone with a long term view. In the recent words of the Chairman - “Chi-Med’;s consistent strategy over the past 16 years has generated considerable shareholder value, and we believe it is now poised to deliver substantially more."

Lost and lots of news due soon, including..........

Savolitinib - AZ descision on strategy for Phase III registration and potential Breakthrough Therapy

Fruquintinib -
Phase III FRESCO study full data sub-group analysis in third-line CRC;
Complete enrollment of Phase III FALUCA study in third-line NSCLC;
Initiate China Phase III study in second-line gastric cancer patients;
Initiate U.S. Phase I bridging study in Caucasian patients.

Sulfatinib -
Initiate China Phase III study in first-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients with brain metastasis;
Initiate China Phase II study in glioblastoma (primary brain cancer).

Sulfatinib -
Initiate Phase II expansion study in NET patients in the U.S.

Plus of course we have some potential things which could impact positively on FY17 guidance

[melf] 22/8/2017 12:08

Just a quick thanks to Nerdofsteel and all the other informative posters for making this an example of what a BB should be. I've been following this one quietly and had another top-up this morning. Loving all these director buys and lack of the herd!

GLA

[hamsterdam] 22/8/2017 09:23

Seems to be quite a lot of Director buys recently, do they know something?

[nhb001] 22/8/2017 09:05

More non-exec buys reported.

[nerdofsteel] 22/8/2017 07:22

Suits me! The less Private Investors the better, avoids the short term herd.

[scanjet17] 18/8/2017 11:50

The problem with PI's tends to be the price per share. There is a perception that they are unaffordable. Were they £3.70 or 37p they would attract small investors.
Psychology plays a great part of investment success.

[mad foetus] 18/8/2017 11:29

More buys. How many more clues do people need?

[nerdofsteel] 16/8/2017 07:06

indeed! and I like the fact the Directors continue to buy dispelling any views we are over-valued. $10bn mcap Company by 2020 IMO.

[mad foetus] 15/8/2017 11:59

More director buys. I tried a cheeky top up online but none available. Await the inevitable news and a £50 share price over the next couple of months

[nerdofsteel] 11/8/2017 09:47

The paper on the 7th March is the most comprehensive one with regards to forecast sales numbers

I do like the fact that the Company is now starting to put revenue and nett income info for each indication, starting with Fruq CRC. Others will follow as clearly the U.S Analysts expect this kind of guidance.

[mad foetus] 10/8/2017 09:56

More director buys prompted me to top up just now. Gla

[nerdofsteel] 10/8/2017 07:07

We are spending cash but unlike most Biotechs, at least we have a cash generating division so that means cash burn is minimal, which is also why we have not needed multiple dilutive placings over the last decade.

Phase 3 trials are extremely costly but at least we will start generating cash (nett income circa $35m pa) from our first drug next year in China.

As the Chairman implies, the growth in the Company's value has been substantial but the best it yet to come...

[dbadvn] 09/8/2017 15:18

Ok- time will tell on the cash front.

I'll try to make the agm.

[nerdofsteel] 08/8/2017 18:10

I go to thw AGM every year and the Board fill me with confidence. The fact the company controlled by the richest man in Asia holds 60% is also telking IMO

[haydock] 08/8/2017 16:28

Congratulations Nerdofsteel you can retire now !

This share is a quiet real success story, even today the herd did not pick it up. I hope you are right about the future.

Cheers Hay.