Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 13/5/2021 09:44

Agreed!! and a 6% drop on NASDAQ in the last 45 mins of trading ($220m mcap reduction) is very disturbing.

[steeplejack] 13/5/2021 09:13

The aim of these little chats is,of course, to convey quiet confidence but sadly it now imparts a suspicion of benign neglect!

[nerdofsteel] 13/5/2021 08:02

4 years of significant progress and the share price is now back where it was in Summer 2017.

General Atlantic and The Canadian Pension Plan are currently sitting on a paper losses of $24m / 24%

These may be long term investments but what Institutional Investor with Clients or Trustees wants to stomach that sort of loss when the drop in valuation is completely out of sync with the Co. progress.

The Company's clinical progress is extremely good, but on the corporate side things seem to be going wrong. Botched placings, pulled IPO's and a volatile valuation where the only people willing to invest now are probably people who are willing to tie their capital up for 10+ years in the hope they may get a good return.

[steeplejack] 12/5/2021 22:00

Ordinarily,the fundamentals would assert themselves due to the possibility of a bid but with Hutchinson holding a tad short of 50% of the equity,you can forget bid possibilities.Going private can’t be ignored though and the way things are going,the management must be thinking that it’d be worthwhile buying out the punters for £4 plus and going private.It’s happened before with the likes of Inmarsat and others.The management will defend themselves by regarding the stock markets current rating as actually detrimental to the company’s future progress.Given that the management have really failed to utilise the HK listing or institute a full listing in the UK,you have to wonder whether this company will feel committed to being publicly listed going forward.If i was in CH’s position and i’d recently attracted some prestigious pension funds,i would question whether i wanted to rely upon a few feral equity punters/algorithms who could well compromise my best long term laid plans.It’s a consideration which won’t be lost on many companies as evidenced by falling listings over the last couple of decades.

[mcmather] 12/5/2021 21:59

Whoever thought up the ‘fireside chat’ idea – the Corporate Communications Executive? – wants binning off immediately. The share price has been decimated of late and, instead of a barnstorming / robust response to this, they deem a cosy, pre-scripted ‘fireside chat’ to be the right way to go!?

The US is down generally tonight but not the 7%+ that HCM is over there.

[nerdofsteel] 12/5/2021 21:40

As before, the share price movement is completely detached from anything rational, and today another $275m was wiped off the mcap for no apparent reason other than people dumping it. The volumes were higher than usual but not too out of the ordinary.

I can't see how any institutional Investors will touch this with a bargepole, it's too volatile and detached from reality!

[steeplejack] 12/5/2021 21:06

Oh dear....well those pension fund managers will be rather displeased that their well researched 'private' equity purchases are 20% down at a flick of a cow's tail.

[nerdofsteel] 12/5/2021 07:30

Nothing new came out of the fireside chat, nothing of any importance, just the teenage BoA Analayst asking a few dull pre-scripted questions.

[steeplejack] 11/5/2021 18:00

336/- shares traded in London is ,at a cursory glance, the second highest daily volume in the last twelve months.Whether that signals a sea change of sorts might become clearer as the week progresses.

[sportii] 11/5/2021 14:49

First quarter of last year, the share price was sub £3 for few weeks and had recovered well.
Anyone watching the ‘fire side chat’, please update the important points here.

[steeplejack] 11/5/2021 07:07

I suspect its too late to sell.There's a risk that frustration sees you throw the baby out with the bathwater.I'm sure those pension funds that purchased stock around $30,some 20% above current prices will be seeking reassurance.The biotechs have been slammed of late,The problems of the ARK fund with its specialist tech holdings is reviewed in the FT today drawing attention to a fall in the fund of around 30% from its Feb peak.There's been migration into the cyclicals,crytos and miners that has hit stocks like HutchMed disproportionately. As ever the difficulty lies in whether you ride it out or follow the trend and lose patience.Like most here i suspect,i try to think long term but,of course,thats not what the market protagonists like to encourage,they hope you'll to make multi deals everyday chasing algorithms.

[nerdofsteel] 11/5/2021 07:06

indeed miti, my eror was assuming that the rapid rise from 2014 to 2018 would not run out of steam given the huge progress the Company has made.

[miti 1000] 11/5/2021 06:43

Nerdofsteel ,

A lot of biotech stocks are tanking at the moment. Rather than panic , hold your nerve until the company announces some newsflow which you don't like and then sell, if you must. Just cos the share price is falling doesn't seem like a sensible reason to me.

As , I've said in the past, the only negative about HCM is that the AZN/SAVO news a few years ago was a good reason to sell the news and no idea why posters on here didnt recognise it as such. Problem was that was the blockbuster hope and that stalled and concerns have not alleviated .

Still at this price HCM has other indications that have developed plus the big 100mill investment from a respected fund. Along with that we could have a HK float in the next year.

The share price now is near support levels so all in all, I've started buying in , for the 1st time in a few years. just a small 7k buy at the close but I'll average down if necessary . I made a lot of money on HCM on it last time, as you know.

Value will out at some point. Ride it out is my advice.

[lauders] 11/5/2021 00:52

SELLING THE LOT TOMORROW HAD ENOUGH OF THE LOSSES - been invested here for years but now running out of patience

What's the saying about patience? If the company is doing well (anything to say it isn't?) the numbers will do the talking and a re-rate will follow. I can see what everyone is saying about opportunity cost and fully agree, but selling out now might be followed by regret when the bounce (hopefully!) follows. We know that the US team are about to start their drive in force and a new product is imminent. Elunate has been doing well. In the long term their other novel products will hopefully do well too.

[dbadvn] 10/5/2021 23:55

NoS,

Whole sector is down.

Even if you want to sell do it in a rational way.

Good luck ,

[steeplejack] 10/5/2021 22:59

I've always felt that you know a good deal more about this company than the rest of us here or most certainly me.I've retained a holding in my trading fund here for no other reason that i'm reluctant to throw in the towel when the company would appear to be ploughing its farrow albeit in a most pedestrian manner with the scantiest of regards to the clear under appreciation of its efforts by equity markets.It's a tricky one because we've all held stocks which have remained undervalued for yonks and then all at once,the markets seem to wake up to the potential.Thereagain,conversely how many have held on to a Glaxo over many years and now see a price but 60% of the peak it achieved two decades back.Luckily not me.Trouble is,post the pulled HK placing,i'm at a loss to know what the company's strategy is with regard to stimulating investor interest.

[nerdofsteel] 10/5/2021 19:31

SELLING THE LOT TOMORROW HAD ENOUGH OF THE LOSSES - been invested here for years but now running out of patience

[mcmather] 10/5/2021 19:15

Creeping back up; now $25.15. Support at $25.38. Might be an up day tomorrow!!

[nerdofsteel] 10/5/2021 18:38

down again

[nerdofsteel] 10/5/2021 18:02

why haven't they done a Beigene and used their new salesforce to market other non-Chinese pharma drugs?

They are too conservative.

[nerdofsteel] 10/5/2021 18:01

timbeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[sportii] 10/5/2021 17:59

The management had many opportunities, viz, announcement of Chinese approval for two of their drug candidates, marketing of Fruquintinib / Surufatinib , news of partnerships with other pharmas, announcement of major investments by big institutional investors etc., for timing their Asian listing. Shame, they could not exploit the favourable market conditions.

Hopefully, something good will be announced tomorrow in the investors conference.

[nerdofsteel] 10/5/2021 17:27

I had hoped an Asian listing would be the way forward, which would get around the anti-chinese sentiment in the U.S.

[steeplejack] 10/5/2021 17:24

"A Chinese climbing team is currently heading to the top of Mount Everest, to create a "line of separation" at the summit. This is to prevent climbers arriving from China and Nepal congregating together and potentially spreading Covid, as reported by the official state news agency Xinhua."Doesn't exactly encourage US institutions to dash out and top up their Chinese investment holdings with all this uncertainty over Taiwan,trade relations etc.History shows that the passing of the baton of world leadership from one power to another has rarely gone smoothly.HCM hasn't helped itself to buck a pretty broad disillusionment with Chinese investments just now.Be interesting to see the response to these investor conferences.