EU approval granted
RNS |
As I said before - good entry point .
Quick approval by Europe via Takeda really highlights the politicisation of the US drug approval system. Patients are dying because of their hypocrisy . Might be excusable if there was a US alternative available . They have completely lost their way. Shameful really. |
Am in at that.
f |
That's quite an rns. |
its all about the money ( = sales ) from here on in .... |
Deadly dull here and drifting. Good we may be about to break 300p again but we need some decent news to get things going. Never seems to arrive and if something good appears is sold off. Come on HCM give us something to cheer about please! |
The company will need to think about how it deploys excess capital…..It looks likely they already have a buffer of ~US$200-300m in excess cash.
A dividend of 1HKD/10p would cost about HKD850m / £85m US$110m and is likely affordable.
However their main shareholders may not be than interested in a cash return and prefer buy backs. Management will also be able to fund M&A (I include in-licensing) to expand the business and potentially take on debt to fund itself.
Lots of good problems for management to ponder. |
Thanks 1jat. The Takeda presentation (link provided over on LSE BB) is good to check out as well. Fruzaqla and its progress is shown in various slides.
One day (2027?) we may be looking at dividends here too. Doubt I will have the stamina to hold all my current shares until then, but should be holding some. |
 Lauders
The sales report from Takeda was IMO a very positive one. They reported FY sales of 10.1bn JPY which is approx $65m, with 15m in 2023, that means Pts signed up for $50m in Q1.
They are still building the book and have not reached a steady state when new patients are matched by patients coming off the medication.
The $50m is approximately adding a net $5m of new sales each month which adds $30m to revenue each quarter in the short term and then the increment will start to tail off as equilibrium is reached.
The maths suggests a likely sales trajectory in the US for 2024 Q/ly sales of
50
80
110
140 which totals $380m.
We can watch that develop with the HY results at the end of July, but I would be hopeful that Takeda generates $350m of US revenue this year which will bring HCM $50 of royalty payments.
EU approval should come in July with sales in the higher volume but maybe price limited markets following…..THere are more govt pricing reviews before full volume can be reached in most countries so I expect it will take 2 years before we see a full European sales picture emerge. The market is 3x, but I would expect a price cut (25%?), so Takeda may be able to push EU sales to $700m in due course
Japan approval around the end of the year with sales starting in 2025. Other markets to follow using these approvals as a base.
I can see HCM getting $150-200m in royalty payments in 2026 which will last for a few years. |
Wonder why the rise today? Could it be Takeda related? Sales of Fruzaqla.
Doubt it is related to the news yesterday: Hong Kong, Shanghai & Florham Park, NJ - Wednesday, May 8, 2024: HUTCHMED (China) Limited ("HUTCHMED" or the "Company") (Nasdaq/AIM: HCM, HKEX: 13) today announces that Dr Renu Bhatia is appointed as an Independent Non-executive Director and a member of Technical Committee of the Company with effect from May 13, 2024.
Interesting to see she is the chairman of the Listing Committee of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited though. |
This is a good entry point for shorter term “momentum “ investors .
I’d buy more if that was my style , but I’m in it for the long term. |
Quite a good day over in HK today:
Let's hope the positive momentum continues this week. Results due on Friday I seem to recall from something I observed the other day.
EDIT - The 2023 annual report is worth a look: |
US investors so spooked over China that all they are looking at is the money.
When the cash starts tocome in they will react.
In the meantime HCM remains a huge bargain. |
AZ reported Q1 Orpathys sales up 43% (48% at CER). HCM gets a large % of the revenue in royalties and manufacturing fees.
Sales continue to build after inclusion in NRDL. |
Lauders - the next news I am looking at is 9 May in the Takeda Q4 results. This will show how sales are going in US market.
There are some product approvals due in the next few months. The sNDA for Fruq in GC is probably first, with EMA approval, JPN approval and then Sovlep BTD review all expected this year….not sure how long China regulator is taking on priority reviews, so maybe the ESLIM01 review also sneaks into 2024.
The Sovlep review result was seen as a trigger for partnering negotiations.
I am sure there will be other news but those should be the big ones coming up. An efficient market would be baking in some of these results….but we certainly dont have that so I am hoping the individual approvals will create a variety of bump ups…the market for Fruq controlled by the EMA is 3x the US so is probably the most important, followed by a Sovlep approval and subsequent partnering announcement. |
Are we going to hit the 300p barrier and hopefully push through it this time? Would be great to get some decent news so that it makes it possible and then pushes us through the 400p target I have in mind for starters. We were just under 600p three years ago! |
China Universal Asset Management Co. Ltd. lifted its position in HUTCHMED (China) Limited (NASDAQ:HCM – Free Report) by 353.7% in the fourth quarter, Holdings Channel reports. The firm owned 3,593 shares of the company’s stock after acquiring an additional 2,801 shares during the period. China Universal Asset Management Co. Ltd.’s holdings in HUTCHMED were worth $65,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission.
Could be the reason? More in the link than that shared above, so more interest by more parties in the stock now? |
Anyone know the rise today ? |
More good news from HCM today: HUTCHMED and Innovent Jointly Announce NDA Acceptance in China for Fruquintinib Combination with Sintilimab for the Treatment of Advanced Endometrial Cancer with Priority Review Status |
Yes…sNDA likely approval mid 25 and revenue in H2 25.
Delivering as promised in their target pipeline development slide. |
Good news today but so far only 1% up in HK.
HUTCHMED Announces Savolitinib sNDA Accepted in China for Treatment-Naïve or Previously Treated Patients with Locally Advanced or Metastatic MET Exon 14 NSCLC
Further reading of the news states "......has been accepted for review by the China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). If approved, the new label indication for savolitinib will be expanded to include treatment-naive patients in China.
Hence the more muted response. Still, another step in the right direction. |
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