Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[nerdofsteel] 07/1/2019 09:32

5 years ago it was £6 so a 500% uplift in 5 years is still good. A new Edison note would be welcome, together with an updated pipeline. The Company still has the potential to be worth $20bn within the next 5 years if we do not have any more pipeline issues. That said, it was always a risk that as the pipeline matures there would be some failures, which happens with players including the large ones.

[lauders] 05/1/2019 02:32

don't sell if you are a long term holder but don't add either

Why the latter? Surely if you believe in the company and the management averaging down, or ,if you have been long enough to have bought lower, topping-up, is the way to go? If I had spare funds I think I would be adding now or at least wait to see if we reach 3000p which hopefully will act as support. Seems to have fallen a long way.

[steeplejack] 04/1/2019 10:53

Disappointing.Healthcare was the best performing sectors on Wall Street last year and still offers some opportunities for profit taking.NMC is getting hammered like HCM.

There’s very little volume attached to the fall in London which gives some solace.

I agree with malcontent.We’re in a bear market and bullish sentiment can swiftly retreat when it comes to stocks like HCM.The gene editing stocks on Wall Street have really taken a beating in recent months simply because the more “speculative” money has evaporated and when you have a company that doesn’t make a profit,it will inevitably fall into the speculative camp whether it be tech,mining,pharma or whatever.I don’t intend to sell primarily because the severity of the share price fall suggests that a good part of the fall is down to chartists rather than fundamentalists.I speculate that £30 could provide support but I’ll probably just try to turn a blind eye to the rapid evaporation of profits in what only a few weeks back was one of my best investments.

[malcontent] 04/1/2019 10:53

it's a bear market, baby

stocks that were highly rated before the turn get hammered

fear dominates, greed hides under a cushion

don't sell if you are a long term holder but don't add either

[nerdofsteel] 04/1/2019 09:08

Down 40% now. Relentless selling and shorting. Let's hope for a good set of results but something more than that is needed.

[nerdofsteel] 31/12/2018 11:24

agreed sporti, or commission Edison to release an updated note, although that may have further negative impact. On reflection I am buying again today.

[sportii] 31/12/2018 08:37

Of course the fundamentals remain the same. Perhaps, the company should consider issuing a ‘remedial statement’ for the benefit of shareholders.

[nerdofsteel] 25/12/2018 12:17

Fundamentals remain similar, bigger loss expected this year but the ditching of Savolitinib PRCC is hardly material, it was very niche, the bigger opp lies in lung combis. bearing in mind we are back to the mid 2017 price I expect 2019 to be a great year, especially if they report good sales for Fruquintinib. I remain a buyer, as i have been years. I also note Mark Slater is holding and the inclusion in NASDAQ's Biotech Tracker should be good.

[mad foetus] 24/12/2018 16:14

Seems steady at $24 in US, which I guess is around £38 here. I suggest this is a great entry point, though biotech in general has been hammered recently

[robert longcroft] 24/12/2018 15:31

Amy feel for bottoming out price
Roby

[steeplejack] 24/12/2018 13:16

Hope springs eternal.It'll recover.

[nerdofsteel] 24/12/2018 12:26

I've bought more, hence the price will go down even more

[nerdofsteel] 24/12/2018 12:15

18 months of gains wiped out in 3 days.

[nhb001] 24/12/2018 11:07

Free falling now.

[gswredland] 24/12/2018 10:51

Crazy spread on these!

[nerdofsteel] 23/12/2018 15:46

20th Dec - Investors Chronicle

Shares in Hutchison China Meditech (HCM) took another hit this morning after the group announced changes to its 2013 license and collaboration agreement on cancer drug fruquintinib with US partner Eli Lilly (US:LLY). The amendment effectively changes the roles and responsibilities of Chi-Med and Lilly, in China, for the development and commercialisation of fruquintinib, as well as collaborations for the development of fruquintinib with third-party anti-cancer agents as well as the promotion and distribution rights of fruquintinib. Chairman Simon To said Chi-Med was “stepping forward” to take on more responsibility in the development stage in order to reap more reward from the “future economic interest” of the drug. That includes a $12m (£9.4m) increase in expected full-year R&D expense at the group’s innovation division to $142m-$152m. Without any further changes to financial guidance, we remain buyers.

[nerdofsteel] 22/12/2018 08:00

great, down 32% in 2 days, way overdone

[steeplejack] 21/12/2018 17:51

Just hit a 52 week low in the US

[dalesiders] 21/12/2018 15:32

Never
catch
a

|
|
|
falling
|
|
|
V
knife

[dbadvn] 21/12/2018 09:24

Buying now.

Two or maybe three things directing the price
A) news ,as we have seen
B) inclusion in new indices
C) traders following the charts

Chart now says buy .

[nerdofsteel] 21/12/2018 08:42

One other point to add is that it may be prudent for the Commercial arm of the Company to do some form of deal to in-licence some more drugs or get a mega deal with a U.S Co. to buy China rights to boost the commercial revs and profits, bearing in mind our JV has a country wide sales force.

[nerdofsteel] 21/12/2018 08:40

Edison's sum-of-parts valuation:-

Our increased valuation of $6.4bn or £73.3/share (from $6.4bn or £71.0/share)
results from rolling forward our DCF and updating FX rates, offset by a lower net
cash position at 30 June 2018 and higher R&D in 2018 and 2019. We value the
Innovation Platform (IP) at $4,780.5m and placing the Commercial Platform’s (CP)
2018e share of net profit on a 20.4x rating gives $848.2m (945p/share).

I expect Edison to update their valuation factoring in the likelihood of Savolitinib in PRCC not proceeding.

I held Tesaro so benefited from that deal. I do think many potential U.S. Investors are put off CK Huchison's large controlling stake which prevents any form of takeover. Many also do not like the fact the Company is Chinese, albeit HK based.

[cisk] 20/12/2018 18:06

I agree with your sentiments. You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs - and to build a world-class pharma there's bound to be many bumps on the road. Let's hope HCM don't have any more bumps. If the ADRs hit $20 then maybe I'll add a few more.

What do you think a sum-of-parts valuation is, excluding the drug pipeline? I know everyone talks about the drugs in development etc but also there's a significant business aside of that.

And I was also wondering, after seeing how much GSK paid for Tesaro (albeit a different company but $5bn for a one-trick pony), how much the share price would be if Hutchison Whampoa didn't own 60% of HCM. When Li Ka-shing eventually passes, even though his son is running things, maybe that 60% could be reduced...

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2018 16:44

It has in the fact that I have a substantial amount of shares (1000's) which I will HOLD but I will no longer be adding until we start getting positive pipeline news. There was also a halt in the 523 trial recently so lots of bad news. The only positive news recently has been the approval of Fruquintinib but it had little impact.

I am disappointed in these updates, I just hope we get positive updates on Epitinib and Sulfatinib, late stage assets that we wholly own.