Home Reit Share Discussion Threads

[bouka1] 04/11/2015 10:02

looks like bottomed out at this level

[jimmywilson612] 27/10/2015 17:42

Cheers chaps - makes for interesting reading.

[toffeeman] 26/10/2015 14:02

If you put "Home Retail Short Positions" into a search engine beginning with G you will get a list of hits and look for the Excel download published by the FCA

[jimmywilson612] 26/10/2015 13:20

How do you find out the % of shorters in a particular share?

[diku] 26/10/2015 08:52

History does repeat itself but in a round about way....it will spit out shorts and longs along the way before a trend change...would it fair to say 100p coming?...

[solanki2000] 26/10/2015 08:45

Depends more on how big the media make out and advertise the day. Home Retail are well prepared however no1 can influence how big the event will be, can only prepare for it

[dealer1972] 26/10/2015 06:56

A lot hinges on the all important Xmas trading period. I believe Blk Friday week will be the biggest sales week on record for the company. HOME is well positioned with its new customer proposition so expect share price to be a lot higher than this soon ;)

[discodave4] 24/10/2015 13:45

solanki,Agree. From what I've read HOME has been a favourite to short in the past so would imagine such positions will be, and probably have been, increasing lately. In 2012 shorts were 20% when the share price was at its lowest at around 80p. Results improved, shorts were squeezed and over about 2 years the price steadily climbed back to 220p. No idea if history is going to repeat itself!.Good luck.DD

[solanki2000] 24/10/2015 12:54

RSI is around 32 over 1 month period however over a shorter period its oversold which is more important as the drop has been sudden from a gradual decline. MACD and momentum is not looking great and of course all moving average are down.Issue here is its a heavily shorted stock over 8% on ftse 250 index. Good news here is the fundamentals are solid and support a share price around this level if not higher so it is in a good position.

[fizzypop] 24/10/2015 09:52

Thanks guys for all your info - much appreciated.

[sr2day] 24/10/2015 09:42

anyway,home retail is not oversold yet.it will be when it is below 100p.

[my retirement fund] 24/10/2015 09:01

Rsi tends work well with sound companies that have sensible fundementals but have become oversold compared to a historic trading range. An excellent example for myself recently have been Glaxo and Unilever.Level 2 will be of little help.You have to pick companies which have a chance of sustainable income with preferably some growth.Im afraid if thats what you would like to do here, I'm sorry to tell you that your most likely in the wrong place.

[blippy2] 23/10/2015 23:26

"How do you find out when a share is oversold as I don't have access to L2"

I don't do daytrading, so if you want to work on very short timescales like that, then I can't help you.

But, Google Finance gives you the RSI14, which a lot of people use to determine if a share is overbought or oversold. Set the timescale to 1 year. You will see that HOME has an RSI of 28.96.

Below 30 is usually considered oversold, and due for a bounce. Over 70 is considered overbought, and due for a correction.

Trading based off the RSI is not perfect; there are still things that can go wrong.

[discodave4] 23/10/2015 18:53

Thanks again Danger.Pension still about 18% of pbt so fairly significant!.As you say, shorting at its lowest Nov 2014 at about 2% when the share price was about 180 and on an uptrend, so some may have closed their positions a bit late. At around the peak in the share price (220 Jan 2015) shorts were still low, however shorts have increased since as the share price has reduced - so would say they haven't got it too far out this year at least! (Just my take on things - so probably wrong!).Will sit on the sidelines for a while and see what happens.ThanksDD

[sr2day] 23/10/2015 18:23

fizzypop,L2 does not tell you whether it is overbought or oversold,it just shows you the orders to buy or to sell.in fact can lead one astray because it is manipulated.you can use the chart on advfn and adapt it with the indicators.you need the MACD indicator to tell you whether it is oversold or overbought.it explains it very well.try the chart first by clicking on charts to start with and then select the live chart.if you any problems come back.

[my retirement fund] 23/10/2015 18:00

You might want to try buying shares that are going up rather than those that are going down.

That would probably be a good starting point for you.

[fizzypop] 23/10/2015 17:54

Thanks sr2day. How do you find out when a share is oversold as I don't have access to L2? Which moving average would you use and what period?

[sr2day] 23/10/2015 17:43

fizzypop,the only to avoid it is to wait and until sentiment has changed.this can be observed by looking at the chart.do not buy until the moving averages are rising and this will happen when the share price rises and continue .obviously the share price will be higher but the share has a chance of going up from here.you can finetune this by looking whether the share is oversold as well when you decide to buy.of course there is no guarantee as an unexpected piece of badnews can change all that.

[fizzypop] 23/10/2015 17:26

"Never catch a falling knife"

So does anyone have any guidance on how to avoid using HOME today as an example?
It seems I still have much to learn as I bought at 118p.

[dealer1972] 23/10/2015 17:07

True u8 however a falling knife always hits the floor at some point ;)

[dangersimpson2] 23/10/2015 16:41

DD4,

np, in general I am much more concerned with pension defecits than lease commitments since a large defecit has to be funded whereas lease commitments only cost cash if they are onerous. The pension deficit itself can vary massively depending on the assumptions so I don't tend to focus on that as much as the level of annual cash payments the company has to make to recover the deficit. In HOME's case it's £22m pa so while not insigificant it's not a major concern given the size of their EBITDA, annual capex etc. I've seen companies before that look great on an earnings basis but all their FCF goes into the pension deficit. However it hasn't stopped the share price taking off or in some cases being taken over so maybe I should be less cautious!

Re: shorting, while I have a lot of respect for short money since it tends to be much better research than longs on average. However it is not infallable and certainly has proven to be the opposite in the case of HOME. Short interest peaked at 15% in Jan 13 when the shareprice was c£1.20 and dropped to it's lowest point around mid 2014 when the shareprice was £2+. Given that record I'm not sure I place a lot of confidence in their ability to call it any better this time.

Cheers,

Danger

[u813061] 23/10/2015 15:28

Doesn't mean it won't go lower.

Never catch a falling knife

[dealer1972] 23/10/2015 14:55

Gap at 113.3p closed from Oct 2012.Very oversold now!

[discodave4] 23/10/2015 14:11

Many thanks dangersimpson for sparing the time to feedback.Trying to decide if 'debt' and pension are anything to be concerned about - IMV they aren't but been bitten before (PFD horrendous debt!).Also but jittery about the level of shorting 8% (and on a uptrend - possibly bad xmas).Thanks again.DD