Hochschild Mining Share Discussion Threads

[dt1010] 19/12/2016 19:55

who knows when the bounce will come.

I would rather not try to be too smart about it, cough DB.

it is not about catching the bottom exactly, nor predicting it.

But I do think the bounce will start in the new year.

How wonderful though to have seen the sector smashed so gloriously..again...it gives us all a fantastic opportunity to double our money in the next few months.

[pixi] 19/12/2016 18:52

Chas - exactly. That's happening right now in China and in India where, due to import restrictions, there's a premium over official gold prices. This premium will only encourage smuggling because people are desperate to have a store of value as opposed to a worthless currency that's been devalued to help exports. Most people would rather have gold or silver than a future government approved digital currency on a computer.

Another advantage in driving out ordinary investors in gold is so the central banks can stock on the cheap. The only way to survive is to beat them at their own game and buy bullion gold and silver as a store of value. According to analysts, without government manipulation the price of gold would be somewhere around $2600 oz, instead of $1140.

[charles clore] 19/12/2016 18:37

pixi - that's right and if the market can't reassert itself by normal means it will do it by the black market where prices can be many times the 'going rate'.

[juju44] 19/12/2016 18:01

Yep , like say ... another 20 years ?

[goldenshare888] 19/12/2016 17:48

I agree Charles, they can only keep ALL the plates spinning for so long!!

[charles clore] 19/12/2016 16:11

H - I am contrarian. I think the price more likely to see $20 than $15. Already we are seeing a >10% silver premium over Comex in the SGE. I believe we will soon see big corrective moves in this horrendously manipulated and oversold PM commodity market.

[hectorp] 19/12/2016 15:39

Its more likely to see $15 than $20 ! after all 15 is only 1 away and 20 is 4 away. It will possibly see both !

[daybreakers] 19/12/2016 15:12

Don't know how to post the chart on here to explain my reasoning.

[obbig60] 19/12/2016 15:04

DayB... you may well be right but it would be helpful if you could explain your reasoning that silver is going to $15. After all, all the major events that could impact the silver price ( US election, Comex December shorts closing, Fed interest rate rise) are now out of the way.

[daybreakers] 19/12/2016 14:42

I'll be adding at 185, my target from months ago but I might not and just hold what I have. Silver is going down to $15

[lauders] 19/12/2016 13:17

As you say Hectorp. "When: is the important point, not "if". The PMs will go up but how long will it be before we see the increases and particularly the big rises many talk about. Months or years? If the latter who many 2, 3 , 4 etc.... Nobody really has any idea.

[hectorp] 19/12/2016 12:55

pixi I trust your purchase shall be rewarded, upside IS to over 500 should silver return to $20 /21 and above.

Your point about the US debt, one day , certainly, but that day could be many years away. They are Rome, and can do as they wish. So short term, could mean the length of the Trump Presidency.
Silver itself, should really be very good value now, right now. But all that is considered is the fine US Dollar. Which is just notional

[pixi] 19/12/2016 11:00

I've increased my holding by 65% at 198 - everything is turning up roses, Woo Hoo!

[scottishfield] 19/12/2016 10:27

Added too Charles

[hectorp] 19/12/2016 10:09

Yes and now almost at my average buy price. I've no need to add more here.
Some ideas:
Gary Newman is almost certainly correct ( above) but when supply shortages due to solar panel production increases will affect the price is hard to say but its not going to be overnight so there is no need to expect higher silver prices in coming weeks IMHO. More relevant is how Trump's revitalisation of the US infrastructure will pan out, but even here, things will take a year to become clear. Also you dont use much silver in constructing roads dams and railroads, ( old tech /builders).
I propose China will start to go into recession properly in the next year or two, so demand for silver might not be that great. In 4-5 years though, silver should be much higher.
WHat will pull silver up then, really should be a surging Gold price, and to get that we need a weaker dollar. Will we get that in coming months? There is quite a lot to be wary of at present as I see it.
Anyhow it is a quiet time now, we may get better action come 2nd of January.

[charles clore] 19/12/2016 09:36

This looks quite oversold imho. I'm adding today.

[pixi] 19/12/2016 09:23

Low today before a rally.

[obbig60] 19/12/2016 09:09

Gap from July 4th now filled.

[rathkum] 19/12/2016 00:21

Invest in silver now for future shortages in supply

By Gary Newman | Sunday 18 December 2016
- See more at:

Other than a few months around the start of the year, we are now seeing silver back at its lowest levels since mid-2009, and I can see a strong bounce coming soon.

In recent months silver has largely acted like the precious metal that it is considered to be and has followed gold on a steady downwards trajectory, seeing around 20% wiped off of its price, having dropped from over $20/oz to the current levels of around $16/oz after the Fed rate rise last week.

But there is a lot more to silver than just being a store of value, and around 70% of demand for it comes from industrial uses, such as the electronics industry, and although that level of demand has been fairly flat for the past decade, it looks set to rise in the coming years in certain areas.

The increased demand could be dramatic in some areas, including its use in solar panels where some analysts are predicting 185 million ounces will be needed by 2025, representing around 20% of the total supply currently, and over 800% up from the current 20 million ounces a year used in this area.

Whilst demand has been fairly stable in recent years the same certainly can’t be said for the price of the commodity, and it has seen dramatic swings, having hit a high of over $46/oz in March 2011, and just goes to show the amount of potential upside for silver, certainly when compared to gold.

In the coming years I would certainly expect to see a shortage of a silver and a corresponding rise in the price of the metal.

With that in mind, now would seem like a very good time to be buying into the metal – that could be physical silver or via ETFs, but for most people that would consist of buying shares in companies which produce the metal. The latter also has more upside potential as these companies tend to be leveraged plays on the silver price, dropping disproportionate amounts when silver slides, but with the reverse being true in a bull market for the metal.

So what we should be seeing at the moment is silver producers having their share price hammered, and for me that offers the perfect buying opportunity, even if many of them haven’t dropped back quite as far as I would have liked them to.

The one thing that silver bulls will need to remain wary of in the coming year is the further interest rate rises that the Fed is expecting to go ahead during 2017, with three 0.25% hikes anticipated rather than the two which had been expected prior to the latest meeting. Any such rises will of course have a negative effect on gold, even though the market will now be expecting them – just look at how gold and silver reacted to the Fed news, which was pretty much 100% nailed on and should have been largely priced in already, barring the extra quarter point potential rise for 2017.

How much of an effect that will have on silver prices as and when announced will I think largely depend on the supply/demand dynamic for the metal at the time, as any shortage from the industrial side of things will quickly out-weigh any negativity as a store of value.

Taking all of this into account I would be looking to add some large silver miners to my portfolio, either just looking for a bounce back in silver prices and more of a short-term trade, or as a longer term hold for when potential supply shortages begin to kick in, and that is where the really large upside potential is.

You obviously want to pick companies that have a strong balance sheet and are still profitable even after the recent drop – I would definitely avoid the small AIM companies as you are just adding unnecessary risk – and my favourites would be FTSE250 South American focussed miner Hochschild (HOC), shares in which currently trade at around 203p to buy, plus the world’s largest silver miner, Fresnillo (FRES), at the 1100p share price level.

There is huge upside potential for both even just if silver returns to the intra-year highs of 2016, and at that point the share prices should have seen rises of 70-80%, with more to come on any further rises.
- See more at:

[dt1010] 18/12/2016 19:25

2017

Doubts will be raised about Trumps infrastructure budgeting
US rally will fade and roll over as corp results will disappoint
same with US dollar's rally
they won't raise rates at the speed the market thinks.
so....
PMs will bottom out very shortly
the PM mining sector is oversold now.
Might get more over sold.
But don't try and find the bottom.
NOW is the time to be buying.
A huge rally in silver,m gold and their miners is nearly upon us for the first half of 17.

[hectorp] 18/12/2016 14:51

Avi's stuff seems sound, one thing that leaps out however is " everyone expects the last low to be retested and that is often not an idea that is rewarded".
Likewise last year, most expected gold to go into the $900's and this were not rewarded.
But how to square this circle: The contrarian is often rewarded ( not immediately)
But the Eliot wave 3 ( pixi) would reward everyone who rides it from 1045 to under 1000. I had better keep in mind what he has said about this.

Maybe the majority are not reading Avi's wave prognosis - I don't know. Seeking Alpha, I appreciate. We will see in the next few weeks but it will be pretty dead from now until 3rd January.
So shall say now have a good Festive spell, everyone.
H