Hml Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 31/10/2018 09:07

His current interests:

Vianet Group plc
Anpario plc
Air Partner plc
Charles Taylor Consulting plc
Concurrent Technologies plc
Christie Group plc
James Fisher & Sons (interest ceased 17 October 2018)
Gooch & Housego plc
Nichols plc
Park Group
PZ Cussons plc
Quarto Group Inc
FW Thorpe plc
Treatt plc
United Drug plc
WMC Retail Partners plc (interest ceased 10 September 2018)
Tate & Lyle plc
Titon Holdings plc
M P Evans Group plc
Cerillion plc
Lok'n'Store
Tarsus Group plc

[caterham88] 31/10/2018 09:05

Here is the HoL link. He no longer holds.

[cockerhoop] 30/10/2018 16:51

No longer listed in his House of Lords declared interests.

[igoe104] 30/10/2018 13:43

I know he held 18 months ago,

The current portfolio - worth £4.5m
Anpario
Christie Group
Concurrent Technologies
HML Holdings
Lok n' Store
Vianet Group
Treatt
VP
Charles Taylor
PZ Cussons
Quarto Group
Air Partner
Tarsus Group

But not seen any reference since.

[cockerhoop] 30/10/2018 13:34

I don't believe Lord Lee still holds HMLH.

[igoe104] 30/10/2018 13:31

Interview WITH Lord LEE, nothing mentioned about HMLH, but it well worth watching, especially as these are one of his core holdings.

[rivaldo] 28/9/2018 09:46

For my sins I've bought a few more at 31p.

With the AGM statement confirming a positive start to the year, plus the CFO transferring his shares into a SIPP, I'm hoping the November interims will signal fresh impetus and the start of a re-rating.

With 4.3p EPS (and a 0.4p dividend) forecast this year a 50p share price is certainly justifiable.

So fingers crossed that integration costs are ending and synergies finally being realised. I'm not holding my breath :o))

[graham1ty] 27/9/2018 10:18

I hope it is higher than 40p !!! We were at nearly 45p three years ago !

[horndean eagle] 27/9/2018 09:33

I think we are close to an inflexion point. Only so long they let this carry on as it is. Mills won't sit around forever and do nothing. Either he will get them to pay out dividends or else he is likely to try and push through a low ball buyout. He has lots of form on the latter. 40p and I think investors will snap his hand off.

[graham1ty] 27/9/2018 09:06

Last year they described as “exciting̶1; and we commented on what they meant by that. It turns out, very little.

My worry is that, gross, they have spent over £15m on acquisitions.....which is more than the market cap. So, value destruction.

And why ? Over the last three years they have spent £7m on acquisitions, adding £8.7m of revenue. Sounds good. But operating profit rose only from £1.16m in 14/15 to £1.52m in 17/18, an increase of only £361,000. So, only 4% of additional revenue has been converted into operating profit.

Gross margin is under constant pressure falling from 16.7% in 1H 14/15, but then falling to 15.7% in 15/16, down to 14.9% in 16/17 and down to 13.3% in 17/18. As HMLH grows it makes less money. Their margins now are the lowest since 2010.

Until there is a sign that they can integrate the acquisitions efficiently and actually reverse the margin fall, this is dead in the water

[stemis] 27/9/2018 08:36

When I was invested in this company it was on the basis that they'd be able to make bolt on acquisitions which would be earnings enhancing through stripping out overheads and economies of scale. That never seemed to happen. Growth has just been by buying existing earnings streams. Now the acquisitions have dried up so has growth. The AGM statement confirmed that they are trading in line with an EPS growth of 2%, i.e. pretty much nothing (if by expectation they mean market expectation, although it's not clear tbh). Such outcome they describe as 'performing well' and 'positive'. Not a lot to get excited about, is it...

[davidosh] 27/9/2018 00:33

Well if anything was said at the Agm it certainly cannot have been positive as this is totally unloved. HML will certainly not be able to use paper for acquisitions as they are rated at half the ratios of the companies they are buying and HML has the central cost of a public listing to cover !

[graham1ty] 24/9/2018 15:42

Stock offered at 32p. I wonder what Christopher Mills makes of this appalling performance ? Oryx paid 37p for 3m shares in the Dec 2016 Placing. At 29p bid, he has lost over 20% of his money.

Business Growth Fund bought 2.2m shares at 37p in the Nov 2016 LTC Placing and another 2.2m at 37p in the Dec 2016 Placing. Ouch

[graham1ty] 24/9/2018 08:59

Blimey, there is no bid in HMLH. 29p, that is all that you can get for them......

Until HMLH show they can integrate and make money from the stream of acquisitions,this is just going to stagnate. Their statement was nothing: neither positive or negative, and the disappointing performance ( margins, gross and operating falling every period) means investors are just not going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

[davidosh] 20/9/2018 17:02

Sorry it was just too awkward a start time as I would have to leave Manchester at about 6.30am and needed to be in London at 12 noon. I was also tempted by the Sosandar Agm which was in Wilmslow nearer to Manchester but that started too late lol

[cockerhoop] 19/9/2018 15:17

David,

You didn't pop into Nottingham on the way back from Manchester then? Thought you may come bearing Mello awards for Kevin & Rachel :-)

Shame to have missed you in Manchester (I usually attend) but the family had tickets for the Arctic Monkeys in Sheffield.

[davidosh] 19/9/2018 11:05

I had to be up in Manchester yesterday as I was hosting the ShareSoc seminar up there. I had committed to that well before I knew the Agm date unfortunately. I will try to set up a presentation if nobody managed to attend the Agm or maybe they could come and meet investors at the MelloLondon event in Chiswick on the 26th or 27th of November as it is only a brisk walk from their offices in Richmond ?

[davidosh] 19/9/2018 11:05

I had to be up in Manchester yesterday as I was hosting the ShareSoc seminar up there. I had committed to that well before I knew the Agm date unfortunately. I will try to set up a presentation if nobody managed to attend the Agm or maybe they could come and meet investors at the MelloLondon event in Chiswick on the 26th or 27th of November as it is only a brisk walk from their offices in Richmond ?

[rivaldo] 18/9/2018 11:16

The policy will have been agreed with the auditors presumably on the basis of matching such improvements with future revenues/usage. As an outsider I know much less about their software development than they do, so am prepared to go along with it. Others may be more cynical :o))

[stemis] 18/9/2018 11:07

So you think that software costs (largely property management software), which are a recurring business expense and on which they have spent £861,000 in the last 4 years, should be ignored in calculating earnings and EPS?

[rivaldo] 18/9/2018 10:04

The 4.3p adjusted EPS - which to clarify is from Finncap - is fine imo, as:

(1) I'm fine with the amortisation policy, although (2) I agree that the interest charge shouldn't be added back. I can't see any justification for that - however, it's completely immaterial at £57k (2017 - £39k) so doesn't make any difference at all.

Hopefully davidosh has made it to the AGM and can report back.

[stemis] 18/9/2018 08:50

Note that expectations are for 4.3p EPS, giving a P/E of 7.8.

To be honest I have always had a bit of a problem with how they calculate adjusted earnings. Whilst adding back goodwill type amortisation and the share option charge is fine, they also add back the interest charge and the amortisation of software costs, which I think is wrong. If you adjust for that the EPS in 2018 is 3.6p, so P/E would be 9.3

[graham1ty] 18/9/2018 08:05

I have been moaning for about three years !!!

[rivaldo] 18/9/2018 07:44

GrahamITY, I understand that originally they weren't going to issue any trading update at all today. Be grateful for small mercies :o))

Today's statement reads well. I always use the core, adjusted EPS. Let's be positive and take today's news at face value. If so, HMLH are very cheap at the current price.

If they don't deliver, that will be the time to moan.

[graham1ty] 18/9/2018 07:33

But Rivaldo, that 4.3p is adjusted earnings. Last year they produced fully diluted, adjusted eps of 4.1p. Statutory eps was only 2.5p, flat year on year.

So, the forecast is for an increase in eps of only 5% on a like for like comparison.

[The Stocko forecast of 71% is absolutely misleading as they are comparing adjusted (4.3p) with statutory 2.5%]