Hikma Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[blue59] 12/8/2022 08:38

Hope you’re right, I doubled down again earlier in the week.

[scepticalinvestor] 12/8/2022 08:14

Haha perhapsLong term hikma will come good. Just looking for the right time to buy back in

[blue59] 12/8/2022 08:04

SI true, but (and this isn’t aimed at you) wouldn’t it just be better not to write bulls##t (and repeating it endlessly) in the first place?

[buy2sell1] 12/8/2022 07:02

Unbelievable !!!! Skeppy Investor has got another one WRONG !!!

Boohoo, Hikma, 4D Pharma

Did you get your charts UPSIDE DOWN again, LOSER BOY !!!

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2022 18:28

Sometimes when the situation changes, it pays to change outlook too said yogi berra

[blue59] 11/8/2022 12:50

What about that, much repeated, Barclays 2800 target and the increased (15th straight) dividend???
The bullish pluggers have become bears, must be time to buy!

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2022 10:59

Damn shame - excellent track record to date. Ex ceo was driving force, now it is a rudderless boat

[montyhedge] 11/8/2022 08:13

Yes if this is demoted from FTSE 100.Must be close looking at market cap.

[scepticalinvestor] 11/8/2022 07:43

Dumped the last of my holdings here...looks likeits back to the 800s

[mjneish] 05/8/2022 14:12

RMG and ITV both dropped out of the FTSE-100 in June. There doesn't seem to have been a flurry of institutional selling, if you check the RNSs. These are just two examples though.

At any rate, if the price is further depressed by institutional selling, this will create a very nice buy opportunity.

[montyhedge] 05/8/2022 13:06

My worried is will they be demoted from the FTSE 100 index looking at their market cap. Then the FTSE 100 tracker funds would sell.

[mjneish] 04/8/2022 10:11

As generics decline, they form a smaller and smaller proportion of overall revenue. Well at least it doesn't look like earnings will fall off a cliff.

[suetballs] 04/8/2022 09:28

So not too bad. Perhaps.
Suet

[mjneish] 04/8/2022 09:10

There was an error in my previous post that I've corrected. Here's the analysis. I cannot guarantee that it's error free.

----------

2021 Revenue: $2553 million

(injectables $1053 million, generics $820 million, branded $669 million, other $11 million)

2021 Core operating profit: $632 million

Outlook - injectables

Expected revenue growth in middle to high single digits.
Core operating margin expected to be 36% to 37%

Assuming 5% and 36% respectively, this gives a full-year revenue of $1106 million and core operating profit of $398 million.

Outlook – branded

Expected revenue growth in the low single digits.
No guidance provided on core operating margin.

Assuming 3% revenue growth (pure guess) and the same core operating margin as last year, this give a full-year revenue of $689 million and core operating profit of $150 million.

Outlook – generics

Expected revenue $650 million to $675 million.
Core operating margin expected to be 15% to 16%.

Assuming revenue of $650 million and core operating margin of 15%, this gives a core operating profit of $98 million.

Overall revenue for 2022 is $2445 million and core operating profit $646 million.

Summary

Full-year revenue falls from $2553 million in 2021 to $2445 million.
Core operating profit rises from $632 million to $646 million.

[adamb1978] 04/8/2022 09:06

Even taking historic earnings, PE is only around 11x. It feels like there's a lot of negativity built into the share price here. To justify this sort of multiple, you need to believe that the business is going to be more of less flat going forwards

No investment is a sure thing, and they're all an assessment of upside and downside potential. It feels to me that the multiple provides for a lot of downside protection here, and probably far too much

[phillis] 04/8/2022 08:59

you are the veritable kiss of death Monty

[montyhedge] 04/8/2022 07:45

I suppose chance will be out of the FTSE 100 next review on the market cap valuation.

[mjneish] 04/8/2022 07:27

I've just crunched a few numbers, using a conservative take on today's figures and guidance on full-year revenue and margin.

Core operating profit for the full year 2022 comes to just shy of $680 million compared to $632 million last year. This comes as a surprise, since one would have expected an overall decline.

I need to check the figures and will gladly share here if anyone is interested.

[montyhedge] 04/8/2022 07:19

Disappointing bears were right.

[scepticalinvestor] 04/8/2022 07:12

Thankfully dumped half my syock yesterday in anticipation. Will waot for a blunce to dump the rest. Siggi was the main driver in growth here

[blue59] 04/8/2022 07:11

Years of dividends wiped out in the first few minutes.

[suetballs] 04/8/2022 07:09

And here comes the expected fall in share price
I suppose the dividend is up.
Suet

[suetballs] 04/8/2022 06:43

Well there's the answer - weaker pricing in generics.
Although generics expected to return to growth in 2023.
Suet