Henderson Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[james t kirk] 28/2/2005 08:59

Unchanged 3v1, just waiting for Numis to move off the bid.

[james t kirk] 28/2/2005 07:48

Looks like we're going to open flat.

[james t kirk] 28/2/2005 07:27

mdchand, the aquisitions so far have been integrated well and turned profitable, so may not be a bad thing, depending on price. Turnover and profit, is way ahead of expectations in percentage terms, so a re-rating should happen.

[mdchand] 28/2/2005 07:24

jtk - just had a quick browse - agree whole heartedly although comment about additional acqusitions makes me think more share dilution in the months ahead. as u said, will this generate sufficient institutional buying to knock out the overhang! not long to find out.

[james t kirk] 28/2/2005 07:08

Well apart fom the goodwill write down, it looks like an excellent set of results and they are getting very good margins from this type of business. Let's see what the MM's think.

Incidentally, turnover is up £6m on broker forecast and profit 600k!

[r0ger moore] 27/2/2005 20:04

i hate there timing of cash calls or aquisitions allways 2 or 3 days after results just when the share price is going north they dont know how to keep there share holders happy after all we are helping fund there progress lets hope they repay us tomorrow

[james t kirk] 27/2/2005 08:16

jaguarboy at last results it rose to 22p before the aquisition of Workthing, which then saw the sharp decline.

At the very least the potential downside is minimal on Monday, but the upside is great.

[jaguarboy] 26/2/2005 22:12

I think the former broker 'Numis' will be eating their words on Monday when results come out. James, I agree Monday should bring a sharp correction in the share price. Lets hope at the very least the share price will bounce to 16p the price it was before the savage and unfair downgrade by Numis.

[james t kirk] 26/2/2005 12:58

mdchand, I'll be there for sure. I'm hoping for good things.

[mdchand] 25/2/2005 19:39

jtk - noticed the big sale - an odd thing to do prior to the results indeed. still, some comfort to see the mm's absorb it. meet u here 7am on monday (or is it just me whose sad like that lol)

[james t kirk] 25/2/2005 19:23

Big sell this afternoon too, but I'm confident Monday will see the share price move upwards. It's certainly been stale this week.

MACD on charts has improved this year, although I'm not a great chartist, it appears to be a positive sign - RSI still shows oversold too.

[r0ger moore] 25/2/2005 17:30

but they begin trading on 3rd march???

[mdchand] 25/2/2005 17:19

i think recent rns shows why mm's are reluctant to life the price, unless someone has already forward sold their position and the mm's are sitting on a pile of em already.

[r0ger moore] 25/2/2005 16:48

the results will have to be good to move the share price the rate its going

[james t kirk] 25/2/2005 13:10

MM's just can't shift their position, despite steady buying.

[mdchand] 25/2/2005 13:10

JTK - more buying today and not an inch of movement in the share price Still, no great loss, as I can see strong figures inducing more institional buying which should help with the overhang (wonder who it is, or indeed why sell now???)

[james t kirk] 24/2/2005 17:35

The buying has been steady for the last two weeks, but it just can't shift the mm's, with only WINS making any change to their trading position.

I'm happy to wiat till MOnday for the correction.

ps thanks to mdchand for the broker note, confirms my views on the company.

[mdchand] 24/2/2005 12:41

bullorbear - i agree. market leading job portal, good underlying business, recent aquisitions in the sector, fundamentally cheap based against sector average, accelerating fundamentals, a real eps (a novelty in this day n age) and technically, seems to have reached a low for the year. On that basis, downside seems well protected, with good upside over the short and medium term.

My one concern is that the MM's are sitting on a lot of stock which may suppress the price. The level of institutional buying recently must have cleared a large % of this, but we'll know more post results.

[bullorbear] 24/2/2005 11:40

Hard to believe that this won't creep up prior to the results.....

[mdchand] 24/2/2005 09:36

All - the following broker note was issued 15th Feb by CS.

Hot Group
Price: 13.25p
Market Cap: £32.3m

Monster Worldwide yesterday announced the acquisition of Emailjob.com, a leading online recruiter in France, for $26m (including $3m of deferred consideration). The business was a subsidiary of Reed Elsevier, had sales of around $9m in 2004, and was profitable. The purchase multiple (2.9x historic sales) is indicative of the value attributed to and growth potential of online recruitment businesses.

If we applied the same multiple to the sales we forecast for Hot Group's Online division in 2004 (£5.3m), we get a value of £15.4m. Subtracting this, and the NPV of Hot Group's tax losses (£8m) from the market cap., gives an equity value of £9m. This would imply a 2005 P/E of just 7.5x (on a fully-taxed basis) for the Traditional division, which looks low. Note also that we forecast sales in the Online business to grow by 75% in 2005 to £9.3m on the back of a full year contribution from the Workthing.com acquisition.

The shares currently trade on a 2005 P/E of 11.6x, which is a 25% discount to the peer Group. Our Sum of the Parts valuation, which puts the Online business on a 2005 P/E of 20x and the Traditional business on a 2005 P/E of 10x, gives a value of 20p per share (50% upside).

Hot Group will produce their FY04 results on 28th February. We forecast 2004 sales of £36.8m, PBT (pre goodwill and exceptionals) of £2.13m and EPS of 0.83p. Our forecasts for 2005 are: sales £49.9m (+32%), PBT £3.31m (+56%) and EPS of 1.15p (+38%).

M

[r0ger moore] 23/2/2005 21:13

if this share falls after results the price will be unreal its a bargin as it is with huge forward prospects

[james t kirk] 23/2/2005 08:35

The last 8 days trades have seen 1.53m buys to 240k sells, but the MM's won't shift their position, so I guess we'll have to wait till Monday to get this moving - hopefully up.

[james t kirk] 21/2/2005 08:01

Interesting that WINS have moved off the bid now, so Level 2 3v3.