Heiq Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 26/1/2021 10:48

Justice is done here today. Why on earth it was romping up ive no idea. It was nuts !

[chateaumusar] 26/1/2021 10:34

Back to 230p in a week or so maybe

[chateaumusar] 26/1/2021 10:32

Graphene could be worth the market cap x 50 one day

[chateaumusar] 26/1/2021 10:31

I like Graphene and they say its coming soon into production

[shavian] 26/1/2021 10:27

Sorry you feel that way, with a nice top-up opportunity coming up.

[chateaumusar] 26/1/2021 10:20

Got to buy some

[netcurtains] 26/1/2021 10:19

I've more or less decided growth investing is not for me. I do not understand it well enough. Gone for Value again. Stick to what I'm good at.
growth is well dodgy.

[melody9999] 26/1/2021 10:15

So first on margin

H2 20 Rev at 19.1M and EBITDA at 2.6M gives margin of 14%
If you increase the EBITDA by 3.7M to ignore one off listing costs, then margin is 33%. This compares with 36% for H1 so roughly comparable.

So we can assume margin going forward of 30%+ and this is reflected in the Cenkos note for 2021.

On revenue, why the decrease H1 to H2? Did they bring forward revenue for IPO purposes? But if Cenkos forecast is 44.9M for 2021 this looks like they are projecting increases over H2 20 but not to the level of H1 20.

However it does seem to me that HEIQ have a fantastic opportunity with their product set - and whilst the world will get on top of COVID, that is likely only to happen with the continued and increasing use of antimicrobial technology. This makes me think that Cenkos are being unduly conservative.

[netcurtains] 26/1/2021 09:25

Not new to investing, just terrible understanding people.
I tend to use computer systems to pick shares.
It means I normally (and am best at)
VALUE investing.
Hopeless at GROWTH stocks (alas) as that is where most of the money
(and losses ) happen.

[netcurtains] 26/1/2021 09:20

Of course! Thanks (sorry - it was obvious retrospectively)..

[adamb1978] 26/1/2021 09:18

Sorry, trading statement

[netcurtains] 26/1/2021 09:16

AdamB1978 (or anyone): I'm not so knowledgeable of financial terms then you. What is a "TS"? Thanks

[adamb1978] 26/1/2021 09:14

Thanks Melody. Again, its the sort of business which I like and their growth goals are impressive. Question is at what margin? Operating margin was around 5% in 2017-19 and then 30% in H1 2020. My guess from their TS is that it was just under 10% in H2 2020

Lets say $50m revenue in 2020 and, despite the superb H1 2020, they still achieve 15% growth in each of 2021 and 2022. That gives $66m revenue in 2022. At say 20% operating margin you get get 6p-7p EPS so just over 30x PE, or just under 30x PE ex-cash.

[netcurtains] 26/1/2021 09:11

The thing is once starts falling
investors will think
Its a "one hit wonder"
what are they going to do to drive growth
post pandemic.
The 1 billion facemasks were so last year.

[spectoacc] 26/1/2021 09:11

Yes the investment is the key IMO - that's what will drive the future growth & outperformance.

[melody9999] 26/1/2021 09:05

Also in H2 - from the TU - record level of investment ie cost!

Operating profit for FY 2020 is anticipated to be in line with market expectations, even after the record levels of investment made by the Company in H2 2020 which will provide a strong platform from which it can achieve its long-term goals

[bad gateway] 26/1/2021 09:05

You can read it here.Seem to remember sign up is pretty easy just an email needed.

[melody9999] 26/1/2021 09:00

hmmm - I have research tree but don't see the note yet. did you obtain via RT?

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2021 08:58

H2 also included $3.7mm of listing expenses in the Cenkos PBT figures.

[adamb1978] 26/1/2021 08:57

Hi Tvh

Yep, I assumed that covid would have continued to benefit them through the rest of 2020. Perhaps my expectations were wrong (though they did say in the deck on their website that growth continued into Q3).

Its the sort of IP-rich business which I like to invest in so will keep it on the watch-list. However market cap of £250m and net income of say £7m(?) puts it on a PE in the mid 30s for 2020 and perhaps around 30x of just over ex-cash. I feel that puts much more scope for falls rather than increases in the near-term.

Difficult to know what to think 2021 will look like given the tough comparables from H1 2020. Will H1 2021 be similar to H2 2020? If so, can then achieve flat turnover in 2021?

Hopefully join you back in here at some point later this year, but given the lack of clarity, I'm out for now.

Adam

[le4r] 26/1/2021 08:56

Is there a link to the note? Thanks

[melody9999] 26/1/2021 08:54

tvh - who isssued the note?

[otemple3] 26/1/2021 08:50

They had said there was a lot of stockpiling in Q1 so Q2 was always expected to be far far lower as per the broker notes. They are free to access on Cenkos website

[tvh123] 26/1/2021 08:49

@Adam

H1 was primarily driven by the COVID outbreak, H2 would have softened slightly but sales will probably still have comfortably exceeded $50m for FY20 - but H2 likely to have involved sales of lower margin products