Healthcare Locums Share Discussion Threads

[bill182] 28/1/2013 09:13

0.77p paid....will finish blue today!!!

[scientologyweirdo] 28/1/2013 08:40

Could go to zero if they can't sort the debt out

[begorrah88] 28/1/2013 08:23

That is one dead cat!

[sir leonardo] 26/1/2013 23:16

IM TIRED OF SEEING KNIGEL ALL OVER DE PLACE PUT ME RIGHT OFF INVESTING!!!FFS

[knigel] 26/1/2013 23:14

I'm fed up of seeing MMO all over the place - puts me right off ever investing there

[knigel] 26/1/2013 22:57

Loverat, I am not sure if it is relevant but another of my shares AVIA issued a trading update last week stating that with CCGs there were delays in NHS authorisation and budget handovers effecting their software contracts So perhaps the trading will improve here from April? Anyway the RNS states that capital funding will be required within the next 12 months and the banks remain supportive. So I do feel the share price fell too far this week and brought (after DYOR) as it looks oversold and has time to turn the situation around. GL

[loverat] 26/1/2013 22:36

I think it is important to always be mindful that many companies in these sort of difficulties end up as KNigel has stated. But I think this is often down to the attitude and quality of the management. The examples cited above of appalling management who throw in the towel at the first opportunity and go for the stitch up is a lesson to all. However, this company has stated that its core values include integrity and honesty - so hopefully things will not come to that.

That said, one should always be objective and look at companies which have come through the other side. One example of a company which year on year has steadily reduced significant debt is HelpHire. There are others which have recovered despite similar type RNSs. It is right to say that debt to turnover here is not that bad and that suggests administration is not inevitable. I think folks should look more carefully and closely at the business. Fine to speculate and fine to be negative but suggest folks back up their posts as the one above.

It is all very well to interpret the last RNS over negatively. However, I have made much money (short and longer term) researching businesses which have gone through similar difficulties and produced subsequent positive announcements.

[stegrego] 26/1/2013 22:35

Just for info, as far as I know they bought Aus for 75 million and have already sold off a good chunk of that business.

You just have to read the interims and TUs to see they are losing money all over the place!

Anyway, best of luck.

[jojo_jo] 26/1/2013 21:58

Stegrego, I don't make things up!
Of course I speculate, all investing involves that. Investing is often called speculating. My speculation is by no means 'wild'.

They do not have a shed load of debt. They have nowhere near the debt they had at the beginning of 2011. How can you say they are 'losing all over the place'? Do you know exactly what divisions are losing and what aren't?
It is you who are exaggerating. If they were doing that badly they would already have failed the recent covenant test. They did not and may not until June 30th, 6 months down the line. They clearly need to do something, and have to come up with a plan this week, then make it BEGIN to show results within a couple of months. The BEST way to do this quickly is put a business or two on the block. Get rid, lose a bit on it, but get a good chunk of cash in.

In the broad scale of things, their debt is modest relative to turnover. There are a lot of successful companies out there with much worse debt/turnover gearing than HLO.

I think a reasonable estimate of the value of a recently bought £90m asset is 2/3 of what they paid. They obviously did DD on it at the time and considered it to be worth £90m. The only way to find out what it's worth is to put it on the market. I'm sure they'd find a buyer, perhaps the management, or the previous owners - I'm sure they'd jump at the chance to buy it back for 65% of what they sold it for! The point is, just putting it on the market would be enough to change sentiment.

I don't know what motivates people to make negative posts, unless of course they've just been wiped out or are 'short' (...very few admit to that!).

I'm not in the business of giving advice or encouraging people to invest, or hold. I'm just offering a possible medium-term fix, which will buy the board enough time to put the ship back on course.

Nobody here is going to influence what the BOD decide over the next days/weeks.

By the way, I have been a company secretary several times over, and had jurisdiction over numerous tangible and intangible assets. I have had to assess the value of such assets many times. The proof is in the eating in this instance. They need to put some feelers out obviously, but first and foremost ANNOUNCE it's up for sale. That would do wonders for the share price, which is the immediate problem.

IMPO/DYOR
Jo

[stegrego] 26/1/2013 19:02

What makes you think they can sell something they bought for 90 million for 60 million????

All your posts are just wild speculation and made up tripe.

They have a shed load of debt and are losing money all over the place.

[jojo_jo] 26/1/2013 16:48

xow,
Most divisions are struggling to different degrees (some not all and some quite a bit), but they paid £90m for Australia not long ago, so should be able to divest it for £60m. They could alternatively sell off a few of the smaller divisions, to raise £10m - £15m, to see them through. They could even sell a stake in the Aussie business (50% - 60%) for perhaps £30m - £35m.

I think that's the solution personally. They'll have to bite the bullet to save the core UK business. It would give them enough money to placate the bank - pay off £10m-£20m, and provide quite a good cash cushion going forward, while they sort the business out. The bank have probably got a floating debenture over some of the business assets (such as Australia), so some of the proceeds of such sales would have to go to them. Once down to a more manageable £10m/£15 they'd be happy impo.

I don't think any of the big stakeholders could buy it out. Each holds enough to block a bid by the other. They could buy out the small shareholders on the cheap at the moment, but it wouldn't solve the problem. The bank would prefer the visibility of a listing and would want paying off whatever happened, as a secured lender. No meaningful amount could be raised via equity. The reputational damage of admin. or similar to a business of this nature, which deals with the NHS and its patients, would be unacceptable and need to be avoided. Not much good for the rep. of the directors either, who could be ruined by it, and would not be kept on as they can't leverage their shareholdings, as they don't really have any.

VERY IMPORTANTLY, just ANNOUNCING their intention to dispose of Australia would be very, very positive for sentiment and the share price, and probably see it jump well above its October lows. I'd expect it to recover to 3p/4p or higher within days of such an announcement being made. That would certainly take the short term stress off the company.

They will thrash something out by the middle of the week, when they can sit around a table with the bank. The shares could recover somewhat by then, as the sale of subsidiary businesses emerges at the most feasible solution.

IMPO/DYOR
Jo

[knigel] 26/1/2013 13:43

The trouble is just look at those companies last year that went into administration and stuffed the shareholders... Then they went into either a pre-pack arrangement or sold parts of their business and the directors were kepted on!! Just look at HAMP, AAT and MHCL for example. My fear is the same could happen here at some point...

[xow98] 26/1/2013 13:23

PE's could also buyout the minority shareholders (cheap at current SP, even with a premium), de-list, provide some additional loan funding and then sort the business out outside of the public eye, whilst gaining 100% ownership.

"current uncertainties in demand make Australia a challenging market in which to operate" - so would have to sell at significant discount in fire sale if that is what the bank wanted. Net result probably = higher leverage to profitability and reliant on one market (UK) only.

Need to look at UK management - "In the second half, the Nursing division successfully implemented a new IT system, however this necessary diversion delayed the business's ability to capitalise on the significant demand in this market and impacted its short term results."

"Significant demand" in UK but unable to capitalise - There are always ways to get things done if you really want to - poor excuse and implementation.

[jojo_jo] 26/1/2013 00:31

Talking about HLO...

They will probably get around a table in the middle of next week. The two main stake-holders, the bank and the directors. Possibly even a senior manager or two.

Equity financing probably impossible. M/cap too low now, and free float too small. The bank would likely insist on the visibility/governance of a London Listing and give them until (at least) March 30th to get back on track. So I think they'll have to trade their way through it - at least until the end of March or June.

They'll probably have to sell off the Australian operations immediately. That would probably keep the Bank happy, especially if they used the proceeds to pay down debt. They may have to hive off other parts of the business too.

It's difficult, but probably the only feasible way to raise cash. Once that was announced the share price would recover rapidly - probably climb up to 3p/4p.

It's what the bank will be asking for (along with some board members' heads on a plate, of course!) New directors acceptable to the Bank + the disposal of at least one major subsidiary. That's the only solution I can see.

IMPO/DYOR.
Jo

[getting started] 25/1/2013 22:21

Yes I do buy some of the stock he mentions and I sell when I make a profit of 10% or more. Not when anyone else says.

That's all folks.

[getting started] 25/1/2013 22:20

No, there is no polite, he does not need to be polite.

Look, PLMO is not really a day trading stock, the spread is too wide and that locks you in. Now you will have to hold for a week or month to make a profit there.

Pump and dumpers will normally buy a stock a few days before they pump it. That's how they get out with a profit.

Search YouTube for pump and dump and see how It works, only then will you learn how to spot it and not get fooled in...

If you want to make a safe investment then buy stocks that have very narrow spreads, get into TCG.

Don't rely on a bb poster that you don't know to tell you when they have sold because most won't, why should they.

Ok, I am not going to post about this anymore as this thread is now getting out of hand and its not fair for investors to be reading all this as it has nothing to do with this particular company.

Simon, stop being so childish and following people around.

Play nicely.

Xxx

[knigel] 25/1/2013 22:16

Getting started, one final point - do you ever buy any share he mentions? I use the Top Trader thread really as a heads up as posters let us know which shares are moving up (using mentioning the same share 20 times in 5 minutes lol) and I look to ascertain if there's a reason behind the rise. I rarely actually act on it but have on occasion. It would be good to just see a "now is the time to take profits on xxxx" on the thread occasionally...

[knigel] 25/1/2013 22:10

No I did some research first! The share price is 0.18p and NAV is 0.40p (but reducing) so I would not have sold! Sometimes you might make an quick 10% profit going in and out of a share the same day but you will make 100% staying in a month or two! My point is he is quite quick to let us know he has got into a share but NEVER says he has sold out and I just feel it would be polite to do so occasionally.

[getting started] 25/1/2013 22:08

So you bought in because he did? So if he says he sold you would sell?

More fool you.

Simon, I thought I was filtered.

[knigel] 25/1/2013 22:06

Getting started, I just said "now and again". For example, I love to know if he is still in PLMO because I'm still there lol

[knigel] 25/1/2013 22:05

xow98 - point taken. Maybe after all the posts yesterday about the RNS no one has any new points to raise tonight?