Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[m_kerr] 30/8/2023 22:03

their business is very difficult to replicate. as i see it they sit somewhere between vanguard / cheap as chips free brokers, and very expensive advisors. that's a huge and growing market, from which they take a small high margin slice.

i think private equity would love the recurring income. seems to be some scope for changing the strategy / cutting costs, if peter hargreaves is to be believed. again, something private equity, in their quest to make a quick buck, aren't afraid of doing.

[lomax99] 29/8/2023 14:44

Suspect the current fall is overdone, also think management will get better credit in due course.

[ochs] 29/8/2023 14:39

There's very little support left on the chart before we hit new lows.

762p was taken out last week with a close of 756p on Friday (although of course we are back above that level today).

The only proper 2 support levels left are 748p (March 2023) and 735p (Oct 2022).

If markets were to fall a lot more in the next few months then 735p could easily be taken out, so it mostly depends on markets in general. Also full year results & outlook (on 19 Sept) plus an update on the Strategic Investment could make a difference in either direction.

[m_kerr] 27/8/2023 21:13

IMV an activist could step in performance doesnt pick up. what hasn't changed is this is a very strong business that has sticky customers, with recurring revenue streams. those strengths have continued despite what is generally considered very average / poor management, which is probably evidence of the quality of the franchise.

[lomax99] 23/8/2023 08:48

Small top up for me sub 760, prospective DY now c 5.4%.

[hunter154] 21/8/2023 20:16

Looks like we are in danger of getting booted out of the FTSE100at the end of the month.
How this fallen in last five years.

[porsche1945] 14/8/2023 10:48

Down 64pc over 5 years….probably about inline with most of the ftse tbh, almost all of it has been cut in half since 2018. 6 Companies holding the whole index vaguely “ up “. Builders stacking up as a great short…following 08/2014 charts, which would indicate financials are as well, junk like NatWest a great target, would suggest in the money puts exp end of next year, recession kicks in 4th quarter/1st quarter 2024 should see Oct lows revisited late spring, has to be the trade to go for, short it. U.K. of course with particular acute set of problems ( political basket case ).

[ochs] 10/8/2023 21:17

@gunman - this year they added a Q4 trading update and have thus delayed the full year results until Sept - so you need to look at the RNS from 19 July to get a picture of the year to 30 June 2023.

[lomax99] 10/8/2023 14:22

Final Results due 19/9/23.

[guman] 10/8/2023 14:07

final results on 10/8/23?

[stoopid] 04/8/2023 15:10

Seeing that the trading range has been 760 to 950 for the last 12 months I am so annoyed I didn't sell at 920 recently when I had the chance. Would be buying back in today and gaining 10% more shares...... Damn....

[ochs] 03/8/2023 18:18

I agree about the 5% yield looking less attractive when some longer term rates are now up to that level. For example HL Active Savings now offers 5.8% on a 1 year fixed term without any downside risk.

US and German markets are still historically high, and so this weeks' falls shouldn't affect the bottom line too much at this stage. I mean Germany made a new all time high as recently as Monday!

[pugugly] 03/8/2023 11:48

Most asset managers falling as AUM's falling with a declining market - Cash now earning 5% approx.
Also low cost ETF's now outperforming many discretionary managers.

[jubberjim] 03/8/2023 10:44

Don t often agree with you Porsche as I find you a rude malodorous blowhard but

I thought that was the way this was heading few months ago but it went the other way up to 900 level.

So be careful what you wish for

I have the same opinion on Abdn but those share buybacks have been well orchestrated and have confounded my expectations

Never mind will all be out in the wash next week

Moderation in everything is the way to go?

[porsche1945] 02/8/2023 17:46

My target for this 550 by this time next year, U.K. recession kicks in 4th quarter, hardcore drop through first and second quarter 2024. I’m buying sept 24 in the money Puts. There are no buyers for U.K. shares anymore, since brexit it has been eye watering net outflows, U.K. pensions and insurers have less than 2pc in U.K. market ( in the US they have 44pc in their own markets ) there are not the buyers to push the stuff up. So route of least resistance is down, now with T bills almost 6 pc even the dividend stuff is pointless. As I can’t stand that lying brexit pusher Hargreaves watching his wealth being vaporised since 2016 quite amusing, take back control haha, of what exactly??

[bend1pa] 02/8/2023 16:19

It isn't going to hold £8 for much longer with this downward momentum. I can certainly see this down to the 750s again, maybe even eventually dropping through 700. But it's difficult to know what exactly is causing this, as last quarterly issued just a few weeks ago was pretty buoyant.

I think the market simply has it in for HL. as it does for a number of other companies who just cannot do right. The trouble is when companies like this disappoint the market with poor results then they crash. Results due 19th Sep.

[lomax99] 02/8/2023 11:47

This looks oversold. Now on a prospective yield of 5%, happy to add incrementally from a yield of 5.25% down, which would be c £7.80.

[ochs] 01/8/2023 12:43

HL closed at 857p yesterday, but fell rapidly past the 50% level this morning and then seems to have bounced from just above the 831.6p (62%) support.

[ochs] 31/7/2023 13:11

Sentiment has certainly taken a downward turn for HL in recent days (strange when German markets are back up making all time highs again!)

Despite closing above 918.8p for 1 day, the market has now taken HL down towards the 50% support level at 853p. The first support at 874.5p failed to hold on Friday.

If 853p doesn't hold on a closing day basis then the next support would be the 62% Fibonacci at 831.6p.

[ochs] 25/7/2023 15:55

It has been a fast move up, but I don't think we'll go all the way back to £8 (or 790p) for the moment - although if the wider market falls a lot then it could easily be on the cards.

For now the first main support would be the 38% Fibonacci at 874.5p. (this is based on the 943.9p recent high to the early July low of 762.2p)

[stoopid] 25/7/2023 08:47

Back to 800 again?

[lomax99] 25/7/2023 06:01

Deutsche downgrades Hargreaves to 'sell' Deutsche Bank has downgraded Hargreaves Lansdown (HL) to 'sell' after an 'overreaction' to inflation data that saw the shares soar 20% in a fortnight. Analyst Rhea Shah downgraded her recommendation from 'hold' to 'sell' and reduced the target price from 880p to 790p on the Citywire Elite Companies plus-rated investment platform, which slumped 1.8%, or 16p, to 911p on Monday. 'Hargreaves Lansdown's shares have risen 20% over the last two weeks, which we view as an overreaction to the recent inflation data and fourth quarter trading update – both of which were admittedly better than market expectations,' Shah said. 'At these levels, we feel cautious on the medium-term outlook for the group and see more downside than upside.' Shah predicted that UK investor sentiment 'will take a while to recover which in turn could keep flows muted in the short term', and earnings could remain flat over the medium-term, which is 'worrying for a company in a high-growth sub-sector'. 'As such, combining our cautious stance with our new target price of 790p, we see enough downside to downgrade our rating to a 'sell'.'