Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bakedbean57] 17/11/2016 14:34

Dragging behind the industry !

[nav_mike] 17/11/2016 14:02

Brent heading toward $48 and still the shorters flood the book...

Trouble is, the update was vague enough to give them the courage to keep going.

[leoneobull] 17/11/2016 13:57

They are only paying 4% currently even at 6 or 6.25% they will be back to industry norms

[leoneobull] 17/11/2016 13:55

A token extension to the maturity? 5 years with no curtailing of their existing financial headroom or scope to do additional deals? Once catcher on-stream an EBITDA of three may be possible imov

[124asd] 17/11/2016 13:50

I can now see why this has been so heavily shorted... Good luck for those that remain.

[renixus1] 17/11/2016 12:30

The update today is interesting for what it doesn't say rather than what it does say. They are talking about a refinancing rather than a debt restructuring as if this is all business as usual. It's not, this company needs a debt restructuring - look at the share price! I do not think the company should accept a proposal from its lenders that requires the company to pay even more on its debt and give all the principal back in exchange for a token extension to the maturity. This is the death by a thousand cuts method that lenders have historically tried to enforce and is responsible for many a businesses ultimate demise as it leaves nothing or only scant hope that the company will get back on its feet, in PMO's case, if the oil price rises. I understand that the banks may not be able to take equity (capital rules etc) but there are other ways to reduce the overall debt burden and ensure lenders are handsomely rewarded if things go well. This involves linking future debt repayments and interest to benchmarks, so that the company cannot face another event like this in 2021 which in the grand scheme of things is not too far away. Reading the update today, the company management does not appear to be calling the shots here (and will be calling them even less in the future) as the relationship with its lenders appears to be very cosy to the detriment of everyone else. The bottom line is if the deal is done as a debt restructuring where the lenders realise that they stand to lose everything if they don't cooperate, rather than a kick the can down the road debt refinancing, the returns to shareholders and debt holders can potentially be much higher. The concept of the lenders (who after all took a risk) extracting all cash at the expense of everyone else (not just shareholders) is unethical and unfair, a past business practice that has ensured bankers do well at everyone's effort and expense. I feel sorry for this company and their negotiating team, making the little people pay (see reference to cost cutting) so that the lenders (false risk takers) cream off every penny they risked plus more to boot (economic enhancement). It's absolutely scandalous, destructive, anti-business and unfair with the country's assets (oil fields run by PMO) being put at stake rather than protected (through PMO) for the future benefit and prosperity of all (not just the lenders). The proper solution here is to cut the debt and all to participate in the upside potential. This deal can be enforced, because the alternative is close to zero for all. The proposal for this should come from the company and not the lenders, who are simply running the banking cogs in the old style way unfair way. I wish everyone the best, and hopefully the right result will prevail.

[bakedbean57] 17/11/2016 12:23

With volume and buy levels should have seen more positive movement yet again the book games continue, no surprise any more !

[spacecake] 17/11/2016 11:39

I suppose they could pay the debt off, might take a while just keep at it. Solan needs fixing but with the winter coming it might take a while. I'm still in for at least ten years.

[bakedbean57] 17/11/2016 11:01

I don't know why people post on threads they have no holding in either...

[ny boy] 17/11/2016 10:54

I've been a buyer of EasyJet lately, much better prospects going forward imho. Still don't understand why punters go for high risk heavily in debt companies?

[crystball] 17/11/2016 10:03

exactly my thoughts!

[patience a virtue] 17/11/2016 10:00

Oil cannot and will not stay this low for long imv and the longer it stays low the bigger jump in the future with underinvestment. wait and watch the oil stocks rise just like the miners this year and the builders a few years back.
I am holding and confident of the oilers.

[leoneobull] 17/11/2016 09:58

Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reissued by analysts at Deutsche Bank AG in a note issued to investors on Tuesday. They presently have a GBX 90 ($1.12) price objective on the oil producer’s stock. Deutsche Bank AG’s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 65.14% from the company’s previous close.
Several other analysts have also commented on the stock. Numis Securities Ltd reiterated an “under review” rating on shares of Premier Oil PLC in a research report on Monday, July 25th. Royal Bank Of Canada reiterated an “outperform221; rating and issued a GBX 125 ($1.56) price target on shares of Premier Oil PLC in a research report on Wednesday, October 12th. Barclays PLC reiterated an “overweight221; rating and issued a GBX 100 ($1.25) price target on shares of Premier Oil PLC in a research report on Tuesday, August 2nd. Jefferies Group reiterated a “hold” rating and issued a GBX 88 ($1.10) price target on shares of Premier Oil PLC in a research report on Thursday, October 6th. Finally, Liberum Capital lowered their price target on shares of Premier Oil PLC from GBX 136 ($1.70) to GBX 130 ($1.62) and set a “buy” rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, August 24th.

[ny boy] 17/11/2016 09:54

Just a lumbering debt monster.

[ny boy] 17/11/2016 09:53

Many will just cut their losses here and move on, rather than waiting for jam tomorrow,the usual story. Can't see this one surviving for more than a year.

[leoneobull] 17/11/2016 09:49

FROM LSE. Geo101

Is there no investor conference call associated with this update? That's a shame.

Update just as expected. Banks having a say on future investments is nothing new and was mentioned months ago. Catcher news is good. Production outperformance from a number of assets is good too. Refinancing however overshadows all of this and the delay does make PMO come across pretty amateur, not because it's taking a while but because they clearly thought it was a quicker, more simple process than it actually is.

The line about $50 oil is a bit of a red herring and doesn't mean PMO is losing money below that. We all already know the breakeven is well below that. There's a difference between making money and being in a position to start paying down chunks of debt.

Regarding Solan, I think the phrase 'just needs tweaking' is far from accurate when it comes to these sorts of issues. You don't just visit the well with a spanner and some WD40 and the the job sorted after a couple of hours. That said, there are a number of options that don't require a redrill.

[crystball] 17/11/2016 09:41

Quite simply PMO's success is dependent on the oil price going forwards. If the price of oil rises significantly then PMO's share price could easily double or treble if the oil price rise is sustained. OPEC must cut production significantly. I have held PMO for a very long time and will continue to do so, primarily as a hedge against a significant rise in inflation which is expected to happen in the next year or two. I've also held RKH for a very long time. Quite clearly nothing is going to happen any time soon for project sanction of Sea Lion, but I will continue to hold RKH long term and wait to see what happens. I believe the long period of much lower oil prices may be coming to an end. We will see.....

[s34icknote] 17/11/2016 09:40

The way I read it is then need 50 dollars to break even with debt interest and paying off debt .Above this would create free cashflow

[swerves1] 17/11/2016 09:28

If need oil to be above $50 to make a profit, does that mean that PMO are still losing money? So will be difficult to pay down such a big debt if poo doesn't increase significantly soon imo

[prewar] 17/11/2016 08:59

Dean Please post your detailed calculations to support post 21913, otherwise you'll come across as some div who repeatedly posts drivel with no supporting evidence.

[deanroberthunt] 17/11/2016 08:52

in project terms Solan has been a friggin disaster

[deanroberthunt] 17/11/2016 08:51

to even start paying off this debt they'll need Oil well over $60