Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[datait] 27/11/2018 09:13

60p next stong guys glad I sold yesterday.

[excellance] 27/11/2018 08:43

If they did they are toast.

Can PMO stay solvent with oil at $60?

[maximus57] 27/11/2018 08:17

Daily Mail today. Top Risers yesterday.Premier Oil 11.18% daily change. Reason......Bid Speculation???

[investordave] 27/11/2018 08:11

Well that rally didn't last long. 3p down already.

[mikesnr1] 27/11/2018 03:16

Roland Head, Motley Fool, 24th November 2018

It’s been a painful few weeks for Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) shareholders. The oil and gas producer’s share price has fallen by more than 50% since the start of October, when it hit a 52-week high of 146p.

As a shareholder, I have a keen interest in this situation. So today I’m going to take a fresh look at Premier. I’ll explain why the share price fall has been so brutal, and ask whether the shares are still worth buying.

What’s really happened

You probably already know that the price of Brent Crude oil has fallen by around 30% since the start of October, from a high of $86.70 to about $60.

It’s no surprise that oil stocks have suffered. But you may wonder why Premier’s share price has fallen by over 50% when the price of oil has only dropped about 30%.

There’s a good reason for this. The cost of producing a barrel of oil is relatively constant over short periods. For our purposes, we can consider it to be a fixed cost. This means that if the price of oil rises, the extra sales revenue is almost all profit.

In a rising market, the firm’s profits from selling oil will rise more quickly than the price of oil. On the other hand, when the price of oil falls, Premier’s profits will fall more quickly than the oil price. This is an effect known as operating leverage.

Although I’ve simplified it considerably, I estimate that a 10% increase in the price of oil could increase Premier’s profits by as much as 14%. I hope this makes it easy to understand why oil shares can move so sharply when the price of oil changes.

Still making good progress

A recent trading update made it clear that Premier is still making good progress. Production is up, spending is down, and operating expenses are under control, at $17-$18 per barrel.

The firm has also put in place new hedging contracts for 2019, covering over 30% of planned production. They guarantee a minimum oil price of $69 per barrel during the first half of the year, and of $72 per barrel during the second half.

Chief executive Tony Durrant expects net debt to fall by $320m to $2.4bn this year, which he says will reduce the group’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3x. Although this is still high, Mr Durrant expects this ratio to fall further in 2019. I believe this could open the door to a more normal valuation for the firm.

Too cheap to ignore?

Broker forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have actually risen over the last three months, despite October’s oil price slump. Analysts appear to remain confident that the company can return to profit and continue repaying its debts.

If that view is correct, the stock’s 2018 forecast price/earnings ratio of 4.6 may be too cheap. A forecast P/E of 2.7 for 2019 also seems to be pricing in a lot of bad news. I continue to rate the shares as a buy.

[lodgeview] 26/11/2018 20:56

POO perky tonight! Happy days at PMO!

[ziblot] 26/11/2018 20:07

I thought US fracking storage was up because they don't have the refineries and China who do, aren't taking it.

[onjohn] 26/11/2018 19:39

I’ll laugh my socks off if Brent flies to 80 bucks in the next two weeks

It just might!

[marvinridesagain] 26/11/2018 19:35

Same idiots were quoting $100 a barrel a few weeks ago; no one knows, its all politics and corruption that moves oil up and done.

Could be $200 within months are back to $20 for a silly reason.

One thing for sure; the only reason Fracking light Oil storage is going up is the Arabs are cutting back buying it and no one wants it. On the other hand Brent is still high in demand, hence Fart wants it much lower.

At some point the penny will drop and Brent will fly imho.

[marvinridesagain] 26/11/2018 19:32

OH no he isn't.

[onjohn] 26/11/2018 19:20

Brent Crude is expected to average $75.50 a barrel next year, according to an S&P Global Platts survey of 11 top banks and oil brokers, who see OPEC cutting oil production by at least 1 million bpd and oil demand growth still healthy despite signs of weakness.


Baghdad bounce coming

[old fool2] 26/11/2018 19:04

Initiative Q is an attempt by ex-PayPal guys to create a new payment system instead of credit cards that were designed in the 1950s. The system uses its own currency, the Q, and to get people to start using the system once it's ready they are allocating Qs for free to people that sign up now (the amount drops as more people join - so better to join early). Signing up is free and they only ask for your name and an email address. There's nothing to lose but if this payment system becomes a world leading payment method your Qs can be worth a lot. If you missed getting bitcoin seven years ago, you wouldn't want to miss this.

Here is my invite link:


Initiative Q is an attempt by ex-PayPal guys to create a new payment system instead of credit cards that were designed in the 1950s. The system uses its own currency, the Q, and to get people to start using the system once it's ready they are allocating Qs for free to people that sign up now (the amount drops as more people join - so better to join early). Signing up is free and they only ask for your name and an email address. There's nothing to lose but if this payment system becomes a world leading payment method your Qs can be worth a lot.

Here is my invite link:

This link will stop working once I’m out of invites. Let me know after you registered because I need to verify you on my end.

[gregpeck7] 26/11/2018 19:03

Absolute idiot tbh.

[marvinridesagain] 26/11/2018 18:07

As said if the Sewer rats are closing its now the time to fill your boots; win win situation if you have the cash to do so; well done to those who sold and are now piling back in.

Lets hope those that didn't have learned a lesson, dont get greedy, no matter what puppet jabba says, keep an eye on the shorting sewer rats, if they start to increase then keep to your stop loses.

That's the key to making big bucks with PMO.


But think we will see a bit of a pull back tomorrow whilst Jabba looks after his insider mates and lets them get out of PMO with MAX sewer rat shorting profits.

[wskill] 26/11/2018 18:05

Cannot see PMO remaining an independent for much longer think the Faroe deal is just the first of many we will see in the coming months

[deanroberthunt] 26/11/2018 17:58

It like the days of Lehmans and AIG

[leoneobull] 26/11/2018 17:16

Ny boy . You were telling us this was a disastrous investment Friday. Flip flop inconsistency.

[hoper2] 26/11/2018 17:11

Ziblot - Because one word from Trump, the Saudi's, Russians, Iranians etc could send the POO up or down. It's a difficult call.