Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[excellance] 02/10/2018 09:24

me too...

on one hand we have a nice little rise, a profit to be taken...

on the other we have a plethora fundamentals supporting the rise. so why not just go with it until the fundamentals no longer support holding?

[investordave] 02/10/2018 09:20

In principle I agree but there is so much more to come here.

[benchmark] 02/10/2018 09:19

Taking profit is never an idiotic thing to do. Wise investors set targets ....

[investordave] 02/10/2018 09:17

A lot of folks/idiots appear to be selling into any rise in the share price It's undoubtedly holding us back.

[hoper2] 02/10/2018 08:40

Next trading update 15 Nov 18

[excellance] 02/10/2018 08:38

any idiot can see, all they have to do is HOLD

[s34icknote] 02/10/2018 08:34

Nov 17 was last years trading update .Any one know this years date ?Sicknote

[galles] 02/10/2018 08:29

Many thanks Steve, very useful and informative

[s34icknote] 02/10/2018 08:26

It's all a game of impatient investors taking profits and new investors seeing value . Because of the 100 plus percent rise this year some times takes a while to get through the final hurdle .But when it does it will be fast and the gains will get bigger !Sicknote

[oilretire] 02/10/2018 08:25

Is Chopy Marvin gone long??

;-)

[excellance] 02/10/2018 08:23

off to a flyer again, just like yesterday, but can we actually hold the gain this time?

price of oil rising, but i think warrant holders may be selling in anticipation of receiving cheap warrants, and holding back the rise...why dont they just let it go?

[chopyead] 02/10/2018 08:21

£1.80? I fart in your general direction; £2.50 by xmas

[s34icknote] 02/10/2018 08:14

Brent well into eighties . Pmo heading for 180 p ! Ready fir Nov prelims .Sicknote

[chopyead] 02/10/2018 08:01

She cant take it captain; she's breaking up!

[investordave] 02/10/2018 07:55

I think you may be expecting too much from PMO. I doubt we'll see more than 2p extra on the share price today come close of play. Hope I'm wrong of course.

[chopyead] 02/10/2018 07:46

Get ready; Whoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh!

[investordave] 02/10/2018 07:11

Thanks for that Steve. V interesting.

[arja] 02/10/2018 07:06

steve73,
great explanation and interesting reading . much appreciated .

[asa8] 02/10/2018 06:16

Don’t hold your breath this is Pmo after all

[chopyead] 02/10/2018 05:18

Share price should BOOM BOOM BOOM today; Oil way past $85

[steve73] 02/10/2018 03:23

Galles, ...508.

The warrants were given to all the debt holder as a sweetener for agreeing to the refinancing last year (mostly at the rate of 3wts for every $100 of nominal debt, although it was 15 wts for the Convertible holders). In total there were c. 110MM warrants issued at an exercise price of 42.75p. 21MM of these were "synthetic" (please, don't ask!!). There is no recognized market to trade the warrants so in theory they should still be held by the original recipients - the debt holders (although I'm sure some of these will have some means of trading them "off-book").

Rather than issuing an RNS every time a warrant was converted, PMO agreed to update monthly, and simply announce the totals so far converted either for cash or cashlessly (whereby only just enough of the shares are converted and immediately sold to cover the cost of exercising them all).

By comparing each months totals with the previous months, you can see how many were converted each month, and by what method (for cash or cashless), and also the effective cash conversion price.

Obviously (or perhaps not..?) long term holders are better off leaving the warrants unexercised (since they don't need paying for until converted), whereas short-term holders will tend to convert them to sell. So depending on the numbers converted, you can get a "feel" for the debt-holders view of the share price (assuming the original debt holders have retained their wts, of course).

The other impact the warrants are thought to have, is on the short positions. This is because a warrant holder can hold a corresponding short, knowing that he is protected (by holding the warrant) if the underlying share rises.... or if the share price falls he simply lets the warrant lapse. There are only 1.46% short disclosed (i.e. over 0.5%) or 11MM, but the total "Stock-on-Loan" (which is probably a better reflection of the total number of short positions) was 63MM (average during Aug, Sept average will be available in a few days, and I'm expecting it to show a significant reduction, due to the mandatory CB conversions during Aug).

Currently, there are (according to my estimates) around 51MM warrants still to exercise (worth c. GBP 21 MM to PMO if they're all exercised for cash), which will cause a further 6.3% share dilution. It does look as if the number of outstanding warrants is "approximately" balanced by the number of short positions (SoL).

This is my understanding of the situation and possible impact, but please check my figures, DYOR, and draw your own conclusion, as I may not be infallible.

Hope this helps..

[chopyead] 01/10/2018 21:57

Yup!

Agree!

[investordave] 01/10/2018 21:35

You would hope so although I think the share price should be a lot higher than it is given the oil price. Not sure what is holding it back but I'm convinced something is.