Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[seny81] 18/1/2018 06:19

Thanks Steve73.

Significant milestone approaching.

[steve73] 18/1/2018 02:00

seny81.. Earliest 1st load out could possibly be this time next week.

Basis.
First Oil, 27th Dec. 20kbod at TU (11th Jan), so assume 10kb average in this period.
40kb available at TU, so assume 30kb average from 11th Jan on.
For a 550kb offload this takes us to Jan 24th.

In all probability, unless they've been very lucky with gas system commissioning, they won't be operating at these rate, but conversely, the first offload may well be planned to be a few days earlier than absolutely necessary just in case there are problems.

The big problem I see for ship-watchers, is that this area has only very sporadic AIS coverage (except via Satellite, which requires subscription), so we may not get to see it at all. No excuse not to keep a close watch though, as they may request local coverage especially during the first offload.

[gunsofmarscapone] 17/1/2018 23:26

Jelenko, re 34818

Yes I agree, but by opening the bonnet one can inspect the engine ie the fundamentals ergo the producer of traction. Financial traction.

lol etc

[bakedbean57] 17/1/2018 22:51

Adg think only restriction on that will be the FPSO max capacity itself... not a bad headache aye

[bakedbean57] 17/1/2018 22:50

I think the company completed 2 international roadshows towards the back end of 2017 with the view of attracting II's to the party and Catcher Foil was quoted as being the catalyst for their involvement, well let's see over the coming months if that bears fruit. I hope it does and gives us a secondary underpin, what cap for FTSE 250 ;)

[adg] 17/1/2018 22:10

I think that catcher production will far exceed stated expectations....

[cumnor] 17/1/2018 22:03

Marv-you are, sadly, a born loser, entertaining though.

[bakedbean57] 17/1/2018 21:56

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large draw of 5.121 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending January 12, marking seven large draws in seven weeks, according to the API data. Analysts had expected a drawdown of 3.588 million barrels in crude oil inventories.

[marvin9] 17/1/2018 21:50

Forget TD he is a Puppet.

The lenders call all the shots, proven fact and even I'm bored with still trying to prove that point.

If the Oil price agreement fails in March then Oil and PMO will fall, badly.

There is cheaper prices to come if I'm not Marv the magnificent.

Hand slack. wait until this is confirmed, don't just jump BACK ON BOARDDDDDDDDDDD!

Because certain rampers are getting desperate.

[marvin9] 17/1/2018 21:50

Forget TD he is a Puppet.

The lenders call all the shots, proven fact and even I'm bored with still trying to prove that point.

If the Oil price agreement fails in March then Oil and PMO will fall, badly.

There is cheaper prices to come if I'm not Marv the magnificent.

Hand slack. wait until this is confirmed, don't just BACK ON BOARDDDDDDDDDDD!

Because certain rampers are getting desperate.

[leoneobull] 17/1/2018 21:46

Crude: -5.121MM. Distillate: +609K. Gasoline: +1.782MM. Cushing: -3.936MMLooking OK for api

[leoneobull] 17/1/2018 21:13

Begs lol. Am bullish pmo so not sure where you got deramping from. It is obvious that the share price was manipulated upwards by the bondholders so that they could sell into strength. Since you are the ultimate sceptic sniffing out manipulation, a topic you've been obsessed with for some time I'd have thought you might have spotted it.

[rationaleee] 17/1/2018 20:44

well said begorrah, lol. another limp rogk.

[cumnor] 17/1/2018 20:10

I think TD is confident there's a market for the new shares, esp with news on Catcher and POO.

[begorrah88] 17/1/2018 20:10

Leo/BransonYou are much better at ramping than deramping and your not great at that!It doesn't suit you and comes across as you being uncomfortable when you try it

[leoneobull] 17/1/2018 20:07

Rationalised do you know how the manipulation works when bondholders want to bounce the price in order to sell out since they are not natural equity holders? Guess we will all find out in the coming days starting Fri?

[rationaleee] 17/1/2018 19:47

A lot of PIs who sold out are sitting on the sidelines, desperate to jump back in and get in at a lower price, just for a reward of a few extra shares. They have watched PMO share price manipulated time and time again over the past 1-2 years and roughly know how the manipulation works.

What they seem to be forgetting is that this will be the last time we will all be witnessing the dreaded manipulation that we all have come to love/loathe. There won't be anymore manipulation/suppression that we have seen time and time again, once this showdown finishes. So good luck to those PIs who'd be staring at the share price 8am-4.30pm over the next few days trying to time it.

With every passing day the oil price rising and Catcher moving closer to plateau, this would be fun to watch irrespective of the share price move, esp. for the HF guys who have all along shorted it and have just flipped on to the other side.

Market has demonstrated time and time again, majority of those PIs waiting on the sidelines, would be left on the sidelines waiting for their entry price, which would never come as any price they would get would still not be low enough.
Just like KAZ at £1.80s, GLEN at £0.80s, FXPO at £0.30s, AAL at £4s, where we had a lot of PIs complaining that the price was not low enough to buy in as compared to where it was few weeks/months ago in Q1 2016. History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhymes.

Btw KAZ had a net debt equivalent to PMO ($2.8bn) when it was in £1.50s or priced in c.£500mn market cap in 2016, and currently its net debt is still not significantly different from that of PMOs even with the FCF, although its market cap is around £4bn. Just some food for thought around leveraged cos. in commodoties space.

[marvin9] 17/1/2018 19:13

You have to remember, those above Know what's going to happen months in advance, hence the increase in shorts, as always.

Beware the Ides of March.

Oil agreement cut fails, the oil price will crash and so will PMO.

Would not buy a single share unless confirmation is made they are willing to prolong cuts.

Good luck all, and hope you all reap your well deserved rewards.

[seny81] 17/1/2018 17:50

Anyone know when Catchers first offload is scheduled for?

[begorrah88] 17/1/2018 17:23

The first 1% of shorts reduced

Now 14.21% [although Highbridge still increasing!]

Maybe their bot is jammed on and they are desperately trying to turn the thing off ;-)

[leoneobull] 17/1/2018 17:13

Normal service resumed

[prewar] 17/1/2018 16:54

Mike, think you're right, obviously the CBH's that were converted via the offer may have shorted a different value (higher or lower) to what they have converted but given the excellent posts by onedb last yr and ratioanleee's Bloomberg link that doesn't seem their motive.

For the arbing shorters then if they convert and close same amount of shorted shares at same time then no net effect.

All kind of makes sense to me the more I think about it. Think there will be some noise around the edges this week as Begorrah says but the big volumes should have little or no impact and PMO will continue to be driven by fundamentals.

All IMO DYOR etc.

[bakedbean57] 17/1/2018 16:36

That UX showed intent of the day..