The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 12/3/2020 14:43

anyone know what are the annual lease expenses - they do not seem to be split out and seem to be luped into administration expenses - They will be a constant so a small drop in revenue due to the virus could wipe out most - if not all of the profit (imo) e&oe.

[1cripes] 12/3/2020 11:25

The concern is they sell an easy in easy out membership with no contractual tie in for members that would protect them to an extent under these circumstances. The computation here should be what value of cancellations will occur. 20% -30%? Their O/H is pretty fixed in terms of heat, light, staffing and rents. Current share price price might be overstated IMO.

[thomshrike] 12/3/2020 09:22

Netdebt/ebitda <1 for GYM LN. For sure not a cause of concern. Much better than competitors. If anything, they could just slow down the pace of openings.

[hawaly] 12/3/2020 09:15

It's not helped by it's high level of gearing - credit markets tend to seize up - banks stop lending.

Indebted companies such as Gym have the double wammy of social and financial exposure.

imho

GLA
😎

[thomshrike] 12/3/2020 08:56

Just putting it into perspective: assume that (i) by reductio ad absurdum GYM LN makes 0 (zero) ebitda this year, instead of 62m consensus; (ii) things go back to normality after 12 months.
That hypothetical loss of value of 62m compares with a 166m loss in market cap since the beginning of the downturn. Almost 3x as much.
The share price is now below the IPO price, despite the company having grown >3x in size and profits.
It's interesting that, in a market where most people claim to be value investors, momentum continues to be dominant.

[quepassa] 12/3/2020 08:50

Cineworld PLC Prelims via RNS today.

Solid results with no material impact SO FAR this year.

But see what Chairman and CEO say about Outlook + uncertainty re Corona.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 12/3/2020 07:07

UK Cabinet COBRA meeting later today re further action plan on COVID-19.

Italy has already closed all gyms according to media reports.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[thomshrike] 11/3/2020 15:22

GYM LN back to the IPO price.

[quepassa] 11/3/2020 10:41

An EXTREMELY bleak outlook from Adidas and Puma, the global makers of sportswear.

Big hit to recent figures as released today and Puma says:-

“Given the duration of the situation in China, the negative impact in other Asian countries and now also the spread to Europe and the U.S., we unfortunately have to conclude that a short-term normalization will not occur,” Puma said.

Puma seem to be saying that it will get worse before it gets better with the spread to Europe.

I guess there is an obvious reason why their sales of sportswear have plummeted.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[thomshrike] 11/3/2020 09:13

Because I look at pan-european stocks, and because I wanted to remain invested in GYM LN, what I did at the beginning of the crisis was to hedge the virus risk by shorting other gym stocks (eg SATS NO or BFIT NA).

[quepassa] 11/3/2020 08:48

Even with the best will in the world and as a great fan of Gym Group, now is not the time in my view to be holding a share in a sector which may well be further caught in the virus maelstrom.

The likelihood of significant further market downside for the leisure sector is great due to circumstances wholly beyond Gym's control with the distinct possibility in my view to buy back in cheaper, later.

Good Luck All.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[thomshrike] 10/3/2020 08:51

Encouragingly BasicFit reported this morning and said there were at this point no signs of negative impact from the virus on its business.

[1cripes] 09/3/2020 15:03

Some big down side here. Gyms already have poor reputation for hygiene standards and with an easy in easy out membership proposition why won’t members cancel? I have. But DYOR.

[scooper72] 08/3/2020 20:17

The quiet period for these types of businesses when everyone is being potentially told to stay at home etc will be 9 weeks or so max. And most people are unlikely to cancel their gym membership for that period of time. So potentially some downside in the short term and obviously liable to be effected by general market panics etc. But over medium long term probably next 6 months a chance to get in at a reasonable price.

[earwacks] 08/3/2020 16:06

The virus may have some impact, but quite honestly I can't see you people stopping going to the gym. Keeping fit is as important as anything to strengthen the immune system and don't suppose they have a hold load of customers in their 80's

[pugugly] 06/3/2020 08:28

OK a Gym, fitness centre or whatever you like to call it is not so much a virus petri dish as a cruise liner or aircraft but possibly higher than a restaurant or bus but lower than tube or train BUT why take the risk of visiting when it is an optional choice Whereas commuting transport might well be compulsory?

Gut feel suggests if the rate of infection explodes GYM might well be a NO GO venue and massive further downward correction possible.

[davr0s] 05/3/2020 18:20

Nope and I think you are right not to panic but sentiment in the market is a fragile thing which is why I buy strength and sell weakness

[simba_] 05/3/2020 18:17

Do any of you here go to a gym regularly?. I do. I'm not seeing any difference. Nor will I stop going because of this.... at least not yet anyway..I sold out here a few months back and have been watching in the hope of getting back in. I will soon view this as an opportunity.

[davr0s] 05/3/2020 18:10

I exited last week as broke trend for me - not interested reentering atm as taken consolidation out. Can fall a lot further in the coming weeks if the virus takes hold

[masurenguy] 05/3/2020 18:05

GYM's fundamental marketing advantage - no long term membership contract lock-in - could be a disadvantage in the short term until the CV epidemic is finally over.

[earwacks] 05/3/2020 18:02

looking to buy back here. Obviously certain businesses are particularly vulnerable to Coronavirus. It will inevitably impact to some degree on GYM. Unfortunately the risk is not yet quantifiable. Not sure Barclays can do the math which probably explains their share price or is that to do with the not guilty verdict?

[quepassa] 21/2/2020 09:31

Today.

Barclays REITERTATE their OVERWEIGHT RECOMMENDATION with unchanged TARGET PRICE of 350p

Barclays see c 17% UPSIDE to current share price

[thomshrike] 21/2/2020 09:23

A few points:
- HIIT is not only for hardcore training. e.g. on Youtube you can find routines ranging from beginner through intermediate onto advanced. e.g. check videos by Joe Wicks, one of the most popular ones.
- HIIT is just one variant of the kind of training you can do using these new platforms. You can do any sort of calisthenics, bodyweight routines, weights, yoga, running, etc.
- You can find many training routines targeted at men, but even more targeted at women. e.g. check Kayla Itsines.

Within the training world, there is no "one size fits all". As mentioned above, some people will always want to work out with a PT, others love the social aspect of a gym, others see a gym as an indispensable complement to other types of training, etc. Myself, I have been invested in GYM since the IPO, therefore I am believer in the story that low-cost gyms will continue to be increasingly relevant.

But in order to build a sound investment thesis one cannot be in denial with regard to potential threats to the business model and, in my humble opinion, in the long-run the substitution of working out at the gym for working out at home is the most relevant one.