Gw Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[sojourno] 04/2/2016 13:46

bull... If I interpret both GW and the Class Action correctly the "material weakness" relates to a specific period that has now expired and no longer exists. MF are wrong, it seems, to infer that it is an ongoing malfeasance.
It's value is likely to be a fraction of the fall but it appears US traders are using it as a crutch to sell or go short. Institutional shorts are relatively low and at least one institution has topped-up (scroll back for short position declarations I posted earlier). The majority of covering brokers rate GWPH a buy. There's also a good chance of +ve news in the next few weeks. So IMHO this is just another buying opportunity. The question is when.

Longsight... Their pundits will simply write to attract readers. Proper analysts circulate for the benefit of their clients. Big difference!

[bulltradept] 04/2/2016 13:20

Thanks for that. Interesting.

[wengerb] 04/2/2016 12:53

Since the beginning of 2016 Insys has fallen by 45.4%.

I'm waiting for Tod Campbell to write on Motley Fool an explanation as to how this is favourable for Insys in its rivalry with GWP.

In the same period GWPH is down 31%.

[longsight] 04/2/2016 11:53

The only problem with believing Motley Fool is that they have used 3 or 4 different writers to punt similar attacks on GWP in something like 30 articles. Who pays for that?

Well, interestingly INSYS are pumped repeatedly as their preferred choice.

10 minutes research on INSYS suggests you wd be freaking crazy to touch the Co [see Murder Inc & assorted articles referenced in the recent RNS]

Usefully for GWP, it may be that INSYS might not be round much longer

[123prezzie] 04/2/2016 09:53

bulltradept In answer to your question here is an opinion.

[bulltradept] 04/2/2016 09:12

The relentless price drop is a little concerning. What does the market know that current holders don't?

[sojourno] 03/2/2016 13:59

IOnly... Can't, it's protected. I could do a series of screenshots but try via a Google search referral. They might ask you to do a quick survey though, which was actually just one simple click for me.

[ionlypostafterbbms] 03/2/2016 12:04

Can someone pls. C&P the big article in The FT?

[sojourno] 03/2/2016 11:53

Thank you Wenger.
I think they may be able to reasonable accurately anticipate the date research results will be released on but yep.

I hold the FT in high regard and not just for business. Deutsch FT did an article on me a few years ago. Unfortunately they misspelt my surname; When I replied to their request for an interview they thought I was an imposter so didn't follow it up. Deutsch FT is defunct now. (!)

The trouble with CEOs massaging Investor Relations is that it only appeals to a certain type of investor. One that likes the figures and talked-up projections, the same investor that jumps ship just as quickly. Justin is right though, the UK did become stale to GW which is why I asked about a NASDAQ listing shortly before they went for it. I'm currently, slowly/gently, trying to persuade another CEO to go for the a US listing for the same reasons, both from the point of view of richer equity and a richer marketplace. NASDAQ has it's risks and overheads though, as we know, but they are manageable.

Broker forecasts revised. Buy: 6 Hold: 2 Av target: $137

US source, released very early today.

[wengerb] 03/2/2016 09:08

As I'm sure you know, as soon as the Epidiolex p3 top line data are emailed to a tiny group of senior people at GWP they have very rapidly to knock it into an RNS and get it out. Therefore it would be simply a coincidence were it to appear on the 10th.

I feel that the p3 result is still a few weeks away but that's only a hunch.

Nothing else at the moment has anything like the same potential impact as the p3 data.

More clinical data in the open access studies will appear from time to time but before and after the p3 data it will have become largely irrelevant.

The FT is arguably the most important global business paper. The WSJ seems much more parochial. Yesterday's interview with Justin dominated a whole page in the main section. I feel that this was an opening shot in a new phase of an investor relations programme. Justin's a smart chap. I don;t think he'd like that article to stand as his last word before the ship hit the iceberg.

I don't expect anything of great note from the Q1 results, unless it coincides with that crucial email.

[sojourno] 02/2/2016 19:07

Results on the 10th, then.
Anyone expecting anything in particular? Wenger, what are we due? Any grounds to expect any unexpected data?

[sojourno] 02/2/2016 14:24

Seeing as the US is driving the price: Every ten points or so, it seems!

Theoretical major support, though, appears at the longer term dip of what translates to a smidgeon under 230, but to be honest the price will be driven by news; most likely the strength of the class action (which looks weak but is a crutch for sellers) but most importantly results of trials, the dates for which RP gave in post 8267. I have little doubt those announcements will return strength to the price.

[masingi] 02/2/2016 10:45

If we have broken through the psychological barrier of £3.00, does anyone know what the next support point would be?

[sojourno] 01/2/2016 21:44

LOL! Very self-effacing of you.
Tripe? I'm paraphrasing results of trials. It's all IMHO, people can take it or leave it.
In case you've forgotten, longsight, the first the ADVFN BB's heard of Dravet Syndrome was when I mentioned it here with a sense of urgency...

...until then GW were focused on CBDV with CBD "thought to have some clinical benefit". I'm not saying I was influential at all but I am showing you that I fully support the Epidiolex trials and outcomes. I have many friends and a few family members that I hope will sooner rather than later benefit from GW's work and not just in AEDs. I don't support irrational exuberance, wilful blindness, or stoners.
(edit: ...and, fwiw, I've called for more cash to fund trials many times.)

What on earth do you mean by "There is someone worse than you on iii who dominates that forum with total BS..." &c
I don't post on MF, if that's what you're thinking.

[longsight] 01/2/2016 20:45

Your comment is unbelievable.

These are refractory conditions where they have run out of poisonous stuff to try on these unfortunate patients. To have another drug in their armoury with hi tolerability & apparent lo side effects in such desperate cases is worth a lot.

I don't want to debate with you. I find your comments partial & frankly useless.

There is someone worse than you on iii who dominates that forum with total BS.

Then there were over 30 articles from MF rubbishing GWP & praising INSYS - who pays for that? There were from memory 3 or 4 different MF writers - but the articles had the same slant.

So my view - have the floor & talk your tripe.

The truth will out soon enough.

Meantimes, 3 cheers to GWP for raising so much dosh at US$113. If the share price had remained as weak as sojourno so desperately wanted it then their ability to develop drugs to help seriously ill patients could not have happened.

[sojourno] 01/2/2016 20:29

We know it's b/s, but it's clearly being used as a reason for trading out/short. It's also a reality.
I'm sure the clinicians are very keen to try it on their patients, but the trials aren't showing a 100% success rate and that's what matters to patients (and the share price). Enthusiasm is admirable but it doesn't override efficacy.

[sojourno] 01/2/2016 15:19

Indeed, interesting posts. "Knowledge Opinion Leader", though, sounds like doublespeak for group-think and wilful blindness; particularly in that example!
(ref: "..., reminding people to wait for data from randomized, controlled
studies. This event was largely free of those." and "the caveat that the drug doesn't work for everyone")
Bears are working these points alongside the class action, so picking re-entry might take courage!!

Wenger... I think you can be assured that not knowing about KOL is a positive!! (Did anyone?)

[wengerb] 31/1/2016 22:43

I'm not too proud to admit that I had no idea what KOL meant. It stands for "knowledge opinion leader".

TCS? Tuberous sclerosis complex.

Longsight. Thank you very much for your helpful posts.

[longsight] 31/1/2016 17:03

Reason for posting above? I think it casts some light on GWP having upped its epidiolex capacity to enough to treat 55,000 children pa with plans to increase from there.

I am far more interested in what the clinicians are saying.

Very revealing that when the open access data came out that the rather spectacular TSC data was ignored. That data alone is imo totally persuasive - folks that are majoring on placebo effects seem to me to be praying that the medicine won't work. Having known numbers of people that suffered from epilepsy, I feel very differently.

[longsight] 31/1/2016 16:55

Roth Capital Note extract Dec 8 2015:


GWPH: Overwhelming Support For Epidiolex
Epidiolex continues to impress. Data from 261 patients indicate that the drug
is efficacious for highly refractory epilepsies. KOLs could not contain their
excitement about the drug. We reiterate our Buy rating with a 12-month target
price of $130/share.
"If I had Epilepsy...": We attended a KOL dinner with five pediatric
epilepsy specialists hosted at the American Epilepsy Society conference in
Philadelphia. KOLs tend to be enthusiastic by nature, but there was something
different about this group. They aren't simply investigators for GW's trials. They
each had to go through an arduous process with the FDA and DEA to open
their own trials in what is called the Expanded Access Program. Combined,
they have experience dating back two plus years with ~100+ patients on
Epidiolex. With the caveat that the drug doesn't work for everyone, their
description of the benefit left everyone speechless in the room.
n "I'll do whatever it takes to get this drug approved" - stated one.
n "If I had epilepsy, I'd want Epidiolex" - proclaimed another.
n To the question whether they would eventually use Epidiolex in the upfront
setting, the unanimous answer, without hesitation, was "yes" - no caveats,
no discussion.
n Everyone in the patient and physician community knows about the Epidiolex,
thanks to the often cited documentary of CNN Medical Correspondent
Sunjay Gupta. "It was the best marketing tool."
n "We would not hesitate to try the drug off-label for any refractory epilepsy
condition".
Having attended dozens of these events, there are always plenty of cautionary
remarks, reminding people to wait for data from randomized, controlled
studies. This event was largely free of those.

[sojourno] 29/1/2016 18:56

Hmm... I think that's rather too detached to have much effect if any, I may be wrong of course but the volume of shares sold since 600+ suggests a more direct cause. GWPH has collapsed after a fair amount of 'reiterations' by US analysts, now the crows are roosting because scandal vultures are dominating. Simples.
Proper 'investors' shouldn't give a fig though.