Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[romeike] 22/3/2018 16:04

You say awful job, but she hasn't really done anything for that to be a fair comment other than state the obvious that they would need to look at the Pfizer offering. The share price has been hit because of rampant negativity around what GSK might pay and how it would fund the aquisition.

If EW can get the brands at a low price it will be great for GSK with a big impact on EPS and huge scale in CH. But I think anything but a bargain buy will send the media into a tailspin over the dividend. GSK and Pfizer already teamed up on HIV - the suggestion they could do the same on consumer is an interesting option that I hope is being considered as it could offer the best of both worlds for both companies despite the initial complexities of getting it set up.

Personally I'd prefer Pfizer walk away and we can just get the share price back up to £16-17 and focus on the big pharma launches - so much positive things happening recently with no upside seen in the share price

Decided to add today.

[tradermichael] 22/3/2018 15:27

Could take another 2 weeks for decisions ....

[tradermichael] 22/3/2018 15:26

Yes the non-binding bid has turned into a binding bid (binding for GSK, that is, not for Pfizer.) Pfizer could still opt not to sell to Glaxo and pursue a potential spinoff of the unit or hold on to it.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 15:08

Bloomberg says that GSK has submitted a binding bid so it looks like the ball really is in Pfizer's court. If the bid is over $12bn I think I'll be pretty upset about it.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 14:47

And yet at the same time she has made several statements setting out that she is not prepared to "overpay", that CH is "not the priority" and they "don't need it". I just want to whole thing over with, this tedious narrative has been overshadowing the shares for FAR too long now. Time to put up or shut up and get on with things - if pharma is the priority I'd like to see just one news story about GSK that doesn't mention the stupid Pfizer assets.

[tradermichael] 22/3/2018 14:32

Possible, but the 'market' doesn't think so. Ever since Emma opened her mouth, the shares have dropped and floundered, despite launching 2 or 3 blockbusters and having had numerous RNS good news on other products.

[nigelpm] 22/3/2018 13:47

Certainly possible Pfizer decide to walk away from the Sale.

[essentialinvestor] 22/3/2018 13:31

Agree, that makes more sense re their it's in the PFE business.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 13:21

The question right now though is do you risk some cash on buying in on the cheap and potentially getting a nice 5% + return like RB when EW announces they are walking away - or will EW appal us all by signing up to a rip-off deal for the "kudos" of being a leader in CH and sticking a finger to rival RB?

[romeike] 22/3/2018 13:10

@nigelpm Yes I think it is good too as it sets up for a small possibly the best scenario where GSK gets a bargain. Just can't see it as it seems to be a slightly reluctant sale by Pfizer.

[essentialinvestor] 22/3/2018 12:56

Rome, you may be right on that. GSK have said they would be very interested
in the option, so the decision is with NVS. They must surely have some indication
from NVS on their intentions?.

[minerve] 22/3/2018 12:25

Novartis PUT coming soon! LOL

[nigelpm] 22/3/2018 11:41

Good news for GSK I'd say - only bidder left in the game.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 11:39

No wonder RB wanted to cherry pick though, that's what I'd have tried too. Anadin/Advil worth picking up, as is Nexium and Thermacare, the rest of it I am not very keen on, especially the vitamins.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 11:35

EI - isn't the PUT fixed price based on the current value of the JV?

[romeike] 22/3/2018 11:34

That thing about new bids is a bit spurious, the last deadline was there for declarations of interest so that parties could get access to the books. Only RB and GSK declared an interest, so presumably there could be new bids but they would be blind bids, a bit like buying a house at auction without bothering to check it was actually still standing.

[essentialinvestor] 22/3/2018 11:30

Why not just make a generous offer to buy NVS out of the JV,
on a business they already own and can value perfectly?.

Those existing consumer brands look stronger to me.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 11:27

I guess the key thing is how long it would take to pay itself off and start earning money for the company. GSK can borrow a lot at ultra low rates to makes this start returning cash within five years so long as it sticks to a low buying price. I just can't see it happening though. Pfizer will want max value suggested by the rapid escalation from $10bn to $20bn as the figures that were being bandied about.

[abdullla] 22/3/2018 10:47

High noon .

[dr biotech] 22/3/2018 10:40

Thing is none of us know what the consumer unit is worth. I've read reports of $10-20bn. Thats quite big spread - $10,000,000,000. One has to assume that EW knows what she is doing and can presumably drive the bargain that she wants. I'm not against it, but with interest rates on the rise it needs to be funded carefully, even if its earnings enhancing. I guess we will know soon enough.

[romeike] 22/3/2018 10:15

The rationale is that scale brings big benefits for consumer, so if you're going to have consumer it is better at scale. If GSK successfully take on the Pfizer consumer brand, once integrated into Consumer, I hope they will spin off the whole division into a separate listed Company.

Today is the deadline for bids. Please someone correct me if I am wrong. I think GSK will make an offer, but I suspect it will be a relatively modest offer, $12-14bn. We'll likely never find out if Pfizer says no.

I doubt Novartis will exercise its PUT, for which the deadline is the end of this month if I remember right.

[philanderer] 22/3/2018 10:05

RB. +6% on that Pfizer news this morning.

[tradermichael] 22/3/2018 09:57

Its odd that the two companies are following different strategies - one concentrating on core prescription drugs and divesting consumer healthcare. The other concentrating on core prescription drugs, yet acquiring consumer healthcare ....