Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[tim 3] 07/2/2018 14:19

God help us if the update had been bad!

[philanderer] 07/2/2018 13:59

'GSK provides reassuring prognosis for annual dividend'

[romeike] 07/2/2018 13:54

Not much sadder than punters cashing in for a 1% profit. Slow clap.

Gain on strong results from Tullow similarly sold into. Rigged market to feed the suited pigs.

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 13:49

Like Emma said outstanding results.

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 13:48

What company does not, its makes sense from a tax point of view. Free cash up £3.4 billion from £3 billion.

[zzaxx99] 07/2/2018 13:46

Free cash flow is still well short of covering the dividend (by about half a billion pounds), so they're still going to be borrowing to pay the dividend

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 13:46

Analyst after these superb figures, will sharpen their pencils and up targets, I'm sure.

[philanderer] 07/2/2018 13:44

7th feb Liberum buy tp 1630p

reiteration

[zzaxx99] 07/2/2018 13:38

@TraderMichael

Yes, but the cause of that is a monumental tax charge in Q4, which appears to mostly be due to Trump's tax reform in the 'States, which should offset this year

"The charge of £805 million represented an effective tax rate of 182.1% (Q4 2016: 25.1%) and included a charge of £1,078 million arising from US tax reform as set out on page 28. This was partly offset by a £483 million benefit from Swiss tax reform, arising from the revaluation of deferred tax liabilities on the Swiss Consumer Healthcare brands to reflect a reduction in the headline tax rate."

and

"The enactment of the US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December 2017 is expected to have a positive impact on the future after tax earnings of GSK's US businesses. This is primarily due to the reduction in Federal corporation tax rates from 1 January 2018, which is expected to benefit the Group effective tax rate on Adjusted profits in 2018 by two to three percentage points.

The implementation of the new law has resulted in a number of additional charges in 2017, which reduced Total earnings by £1,630 million. "

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 13:31

What ever way you look at this they are superb, new product sales up 51%.
Loss is technical because of tax adjustment.

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 13:29

What good analyst look for are free cash flow up 11%, young reporters don't see that.

[tradermichael] 07/2/2018 13:25

This take by Dow Jones News is worrying:

The pharmaceutical major posted a 546 million pound ($761 million) net loss for the quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with a GBP257 million profit in the same period the year previously. Revenue increased 0.7% to GBP7.46 billion.

They managed to dissect and headline this from the results!

[dr biotech] 07/2/2018 13:23

Ceo Says Obviously Expecting More Competition In Hiv This Year

First Priority Is Pharma Research And Development, Which Could Include Early-stage Drug Deals
Next Priority Is Consumer Put From Novartis, If It Comes
No Comment On Pfizer Consumer Healthcare Auction But Should Expect Gsk To Take Serious Look At Major Consumer Assets
Big Consumer Health Deal 'Not A Need To Do'
Believes Shingrix Will Be Biggest Vaccine For Gsk Over Medium To Long Term
We Know Dividend Matters To Our Shareholders'
Most Important Thing On Brexit Is To Get A Transition Period Of At Least 2 Years, Secured By April 2018
Brexit Industry Needs Mutual Recognition, Close Work With EMA, Minimal Trade Friction, Continued Research And Development Collaboration With Eu


Guess we will see about the Pfizer bid. Have to trust EW on that one, she was head of GSKs consumer division and you'd imagine she would know more about that than most, certainly more than the keyboard warriors on here.

[abdullla] 07/2/2018 13:19

It must be sad for the CEO to see the share price go in the red on a day like this,maybe she will learn something!

[toffeeman] 07/2/2018 13:10

Market seems to think these results will fuel a too-high Pfizer bid...

[jrphoenixw2] 07/2/2018 13:08

Now it's doing that IMB did this morning on their Trading Update, initially zoom only to quickly sell right off nearing square-1 again.

[penycae] 07/2/2018 13:07

Mixed reaction from the spread betters. Spiked up to close this morning's gap, then heavily back down to fill the gap up on the announcement. 1279 back down to 1245. All this on the half hourly chart. Rigged or what?

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 12:55

With figures like this does not matter, if we did win bid, as long as analysts think we did not pay to much up we go again, even if successful.

[jrphoenixw2] 07/2/2018 12:53

The spike at noon was a ray of light to say the least. The 2-minute px/vol candle over at Google/Finance between 12.02-12.04 has the price going from 1250>1280.60 on volume of 459.15k. The latter = 5.5% of the average 30-day volume traded, in 2mins ie 0.39% of today's session. Nice spike, but morning trade was thin. I'll be watching to see if the market has gained comfort and volume/positivity continues...

[abdullla] 07/2/2018 12:51

So far excellent news,SP sustainability now rests on Pfizer gamble!

[polaris] 07/2/2018 12:50

Respiratory and HIV sub-divisions going great guns!

Respiratory
The timing of the generic Advair in the US will probably hit sales sometime during 2018, but the growth of Relvar/Breo means it is already a blockbuster. The other ellipta series products mean that total sales of the series will probably top 2Bn GBP in 2018, well ahead of initial forecasts. I am also liking the look of Nucala sales and will keep an eye on the new triple therapy Trelegy going forward. Generics for Seretide are already on the market in Europe and RoW, but sales are still something like 1.5Bn GBP. It is likely that the 1.6Bn GBP US Advair sales will more than half in 2018, assuming a generic entry from one or many of Mylan,Hikma and Sandoz. However, the longer any approval from the FDA goes on, the better for GSK in generating free cash flow and to convert patients onto other medications that have patent protection, such as the ellipta series and Nucala. Total sales for next year will be impacted by generics but the expectation has to be for flat sales, around 7Bn GBP. If the generics do not appear then it will be closer to 8Bn GBP

HIV
Sales via Triumeq and Tivicay are growing strongly, especially in International markets. Juluca has just been launched and that is the one to watch going forward for real sales growth. Total division sales forecast for 2018 must be north of 5Bn GBP cf. 4.35Bn this year.

These are the areas that i follow and i have to say that these are a very good set of results. The vaccines is a bit out of my scope, but growth there looks to continue, led by the meningitis vaccines Bexsero and Menveo.

General
The new products approved and launched from 2013, highlighted to bring in 6Bn GBP annual revenues by 2020 in the 2016-2020 programme review, brought in almost 7Bn GBP in revenues in 2017, driven by HIV and ellipta products. That is before the added value from Nucala, Juluca and Shingrix. These look to be the revenue drivers to reach the 1.2-1.5x free cash-flow target to look to increase the dividend.

All we need now is the DD to show that there is little point in buying the Pfizer assets and GSK will fly again. I think they would be better served buying out the joint ventures instead, but what do i know?

regards,

Paul

[romeike] 07/2/2018 12:39

Suspect this will actually close up on ex-div day.

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 12:37

So p.e is 11.3, 6.4% Yield. These are outstanding value, free cash flow up 11% incredible.

[ny boy] 07/2/2018 12:24

All good here divi maintained for 2018, what’s not to like about this, added more on the drop this morning GLA long term holders!

[montyhedge] 07/2/2018 12:23

6.4% yield, dividend every 13 weeks, these figures even better than I forecast.
Free cash flow up 11%, thats the main one for me.