Gsk Share Discussion Threads

[abdullla] 15/12/2017 07:49

How will this treasury shares news effect the share price at the open?

[gbh2] 15/12/2017 07:35

'What then causes a trend ?'

Hedge Fund Traders.

All PIs can do is tag along whilst wishing & hoping :))

[mani2013] 14/12/2017 21:02

Alphorn,

Precisely !! I agree with you. The follow on question to my long reply would be

'What then causes a trend ?'

The trend is actually perpetuated by the market participants. If there were no participants, there would be no trend. As you stated, the 'trend followers' are indeed causing the trend (up or down). It is therefore futile to fight it and better to join if you are to profit from it.

[alphorn] 14/12/2017 20:55

mani - it was not really a question; thanks for your long reply though.

The reason that I wrote that post was that 'trend followers' may account for much of the crypto movement at present.

One could argue that there does not need to be any underlying technical rationale for many pure trend followers.

Anybody interested in cryptos please join me at:

[mani2013] 14/12/2017 20:42

jrphoenix,

Just to clarify and avoid confusion, when I use the terms 'arbitrage' and 'arbitrageurs', it is not in the context of arbitrage trading, which is trading in the markets to take advantage of pricing anomalies and miscalculations.

I refer to the terms as their general definitions in the overall context of the 'free' market model and efficient market theory.

[mani2013] 14/12/2017 20:33

Hi jrphoenix,

Thanks for raising the question.

With respect to B), the mechanism you describe is correct. But that's exactly my point. The fact that the price drops on the day it goes Ex-Div means there is no point in simply buying the stock for it's dividends.

If you buy the stock the day before it goes Ex-Div in anticipation of getting a dividend, you lose it in the price drop. If you buy the stock on the day it goes Ex-Div at the lower price, you don't get the div that caused the drop in the first place. Either way, you don't stand to gain from the actual dividend on the stock. What you do gain from is the trend that is perpetuated in anticipation of the dividend.

With respect to A) The mechanism you have described to explain the price drop on the day of Ex-Div is itself an act of arbitrage. The marketmakers, as well as market participants like yourselves, (collectively known as 'the arbitrageurs') would pitch the prices on the opening auction to compensate for the div, thereby closing the advantage of holding the stock for its Div.

Hope the above makes sense !

[jrphoenixw2] 14/12/2017 20:00

Quoting Mani:
-----------
[A -] 'You would argue that you can still make money from the stock market by buying into a stock that pays dividends (the justification of a Buy & Hold strategy). However, the UK stock market environment has changed dramatically over the past 20 years and the arbitrageurs of the 'free' market model have slowly eradicated that advantage.
[B -] There is now no benefit in buying a stock (especially the FTSE100 constituents) for its dividends. This will probably be viewed as controversial by quite a few members of this forum, but the mere fact that marketmakers mark down the price of a stock on the day it goes ex-Div by an amount equivalent to the dividend is proof enough, the justification being that the company has transferred the funds from it's cash balances to the shareholders' accounts and therefore it is worth that much less.'
------End /quote---------

Eh?
A] How does arbitrage trading relate to eroding the benefit of dividend paying stocks (presumably vs 'non'-dividend paying stocks?
B] Less controversial, more plain incorrect? :) 'Market-makers' don't mark down stock, after all even I 'Joe Bloggs' place my orders at live-feed exchange prices.
The price of a stock that's gone Ex typically drops, as the drop is compensated by a cash payment [the divi] you're soon to receive. The company pays, it's balance sheet is smaller, it's shares are worth less. It's not 'justification', it's fact, what do you imagine 'should happen', a stock goes Ex and the share price doesn't change?

[mani2013] 14/12/2017 19:36

Alphorn,

Any instrument (stocks, commodities, currencies etc...and I suppose cryptos too) trading in a 'free' market environment would need be trending at some level for it's participants to make money. A free market is where the price of the instrument is dictated by the supply and demand balance as opposed to any artificial (usually governmental) policies put in place to control the price (e.g a pegged currency).

The mere concept of BUY LOW, SELL HIGH (going Long) or SELL HIGH, BUY LOW (going short) is based on the premise of a trend. For the price to move from the LOW to HIGH (or vice versa), a trend would need to be in place, be it a straight line between the two point or a series of ascending (or descending) oscillating price waves between the two points. If there were no trends of any form and the price was stagnant, there would be no opportunity to make money.

When a market participant makes money on a stock, he/she has, either knowingly or unwittingly, has jumped on a trend and benefited from it at some level on some timeframe. Scalpers take advantage of trends on the 1min timeframe, Day traders from the 5min, Position Traders from the 60min timeframe, Investors from the Daily charts & Institutions from the Weekly timeframe.

You would argue that you can still make money from the stock market by buying into a stock that pays dividends (the justification of a Buy & Hold strategy). However, the UK stock market environment has changed dramatically over the past 20 years and the arbitrageurs of the 'free' market model have slowly eradicated that advantage.

There is now no benefit in buying a stock (especially the FTSE100 constituents) for its dividends. This will probably be viewed as controversial by quite a few members of this forum, but the mere fact that marketmakers mark down the price of a stock on the day it goes ex-Div by an amount equivalent to the dividend is proof enough, the justification being that the company has transferred the funds from it's cash balances to the shareholders' accounts and therefore it is worth that much less.

Bottom line, you need a trend (up or down) to profit from any instrument traded in a 'free' market.

I hope the above answers your question.

(Barony, please feel free to proofread the post and identify any spelling mistakes :))

[mani2013] 14/12/2017 19:10

Thank you Barony,

Noted. Corrected.

I also spotted another typo...it is Scalpers (not Scalpels).

This is what happens when you split focus and type in a hurry (or have a pint too many, which, incidentally, is what happened last night !!)

On a more serious note, the uptrend on the 60m broke this morning when the price took out the support at 1314. You may have noted the price has retraced from the interim high of 1323 as the swing traders on the 60m close their longs to take profit, exiting the market. New swing trade shorts on the 60m would also have exasperated the fall.

If the price fails to break the 1323 interim high by tomorrow, we could see renewed selling pressure next week (perhaps after a short pullback on the 60m), which would drive the price lower towards the low of 1270. Whether it holds remains to be seen.

As always, trading is a game of probabilities. Please DYOR.

[2hoggy] 14/12/2017 18:35

buywell3

You have cheered me up no end...

[buywell3] 14/12/2017 18:10

Around 1 in every 1500 people alive in the UK are CJD carriers

Prion disease is CJD

It takes decades to activate in most cases

In some cases gene dependent , it can activate sooner

In some cases it never activates

Nearly 35% of people that are carriers will activate IF they live long enough ie over 85 plus




Prion Protein Disease is the root cause of Alzheimer's , Huntingdon's, Parkinsons, Dementia and others


Prion-like Behavior in the Huntingtin Protein
By ocords 06 May, 2015 Protein Aggregation
Prion-Like Behavior in the Huntingtin Protein:

Protein aggregates are a hallmark feature of Huntington’s disease (HD)[1], as well as a number of other neurodegenerative diseases. These protein aggregates, composed of misfolded proteins that clump together, are traditionally thought to develop in vulnerable neurons individually. However, recent research suggests that these misfolded proteins may be transmitted from neuron to neuron.



Is Parkinson’s A Prion Disease?
By Neuroskeptic | October 14, 2017


The Journal of Neuroscience recently featured a debate over the hypothesis that Parkinson’s disease is, at least in some cases, caused by a prion-like mechanism – misfolded proteins that spread from neuron to neuron.





Prion-like propagation of mutant SOD1 misfolding and motor neuron disease spread along neuroanatomical pathways.
Ayers JI1, Fromholt SE2, O'Neal VM2, Diamond JH2, Borchelt DR2,3.

A hallmark feature of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is that symptoms appear to spread along neuroanatomical pathways to engulf the motor nervous system, suggesting a propagative toxic entity could be involved in disease pathogenesis.



Are Prions behind All Neurodegenerative Diseases?

Evidence mounts that chain reactions involving toxic proteins link Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s and more

[philanderer] 14/12/2017 17:37

'GSK Applies for Australian Approval of Malaria Treatment'


....Getting the green light in Australia would open the way for approval in countries where the disease is endemic, said GSK, adding that it intends to make the treatment available at a not-for-profit price in such places

[woodhawk] 14/12/2017 16:56

Usual suspects are back. Time to repurchase.

[abdullla] 14/12/2017 16:43

Maybe next stop £12.50 !

[philanderer] 14/12/2017 16:07

Struggling...

Teva Pharmaceuticals: Israeli drugmaker to cut 14,000 jobs

[barony] 14/12/2017 13:10

The noun is advice. Advise is a verb. Please fit that into your busy schedule.

[alphorn] 14/12/2017 09:16

Mani - I wonder if that applies to cryptos too?

[mani2013] 13/12/2017 22:49

Sicker, ttg100,

Thanks for the encouragement.

The most important piece of advice I can give to all types of traders (scalpeRs, day traders, position traders, investors) is

NEVER fight the trend !
(no matter what timeframe you use)

The trend is the ONLY reason you can make money out of the markets.

There is a strong underlying mathematically based philosophy supporting that view which I would like to share with you all, but that would lead to a wider discussion, which I cannot commit to at this stage.

[fangorn2] 13/12/2017 20:20

13th Dec'17:-"GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Oncology Investor & Analyst Update - Slideshow"

[zho] 13/12/2017 16:07

>>GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK.LN) said on Tuesday that its drug Nucala has been given approval by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis ...>>

Easy for you to say ;-)

[abdullla] 13/12/2017 15:46

Is that news bad,why the rut?

[tradermichael] 13/12/2017 14:20

GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK.LN) said on Tuesday that its drug Nucala has been given approval by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis, previously known as Churg-Strauss syndrome, in the U.S.

Nucala was first approved in 2015 for severe eosinophilic asthma and the company submitted a supplemental application in June 2017, to expand the use of the medicine.

The company said that the FDA's approval is based on results from a 52-week, phase 3 study which was conducted as a collaboration between GlaxoSmithKline and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

[ttg100] 13/12/2017 13:47

mani - keep posting m8 - they are all useful whether long or short

[sicker] 13/12/2017 09:11

Many thanks mani :-)