Green Dragon Share Discussion Threads

[scrutable] 19/12/2013 14:53

The youtube presentations in the previous post from the 46th Oil Barrel Conference in Sept deserve to be widely viewed. They make a compelling case for investors.

After 12 years of experimentation on the brittle Chinese coal, GDG developed standard drilling into a successful proprietary technology LiFaBriC, and steadily improved the recovery of methane in China to commercially useful levels.

At the same time CEO Randeep Grewal was experimenting with the business model. Originally just a gas producer, he has been developing vertical integration of the coal bed methane gas industry to reduce costs and improve margins. It helps that CBM is the only energy resource that China allows (and encourages) to be sold privately at market price.

The company has been discarding assets not directly involved in producing and compressing the gas to CNG (compressed natural gas) at a cost of $2.0/mcf and selling at $17.6.0/mcf to end users - especially taxis and buses via company owned retail
gas stations.

Already distributing to fleet owners midstream, GDG has developed its own retail gas stations, installed and operated 5 by end 2012 and will have 8 by end 2013. A further 26 are under construction.

The indigenous companies are getting very low yields from their mainly vertical wells and are failing to reach anywhere near the targets set for them by the Chinese State. GDG has made 2013 the year of trial.For 9 months or so LiFaBriC wells have been under test at all four of the major state owned O&G behemoths. Trials have so far gone well. There is scope for an explosion in the number of contracts won by GDL the associated drilling company. Meanwhile GDG awaits the outcome of two spats: the litigation with Philips Conoco and thethe compensation from the piratical 1500 wells drilled on GDG leases. There are thus three or four major upside possibilities in 2014 for those with an appetite for risk and high reward.

[edlog] 26/11/2013 11:52

He seems very confident=

[stevo2011] 26/11/2013 09:46

I agree, but all the info is out there And there are no surprises for me and there is high risk , however I do rate RG business model , perhaps not the ethical side of matters,and he does have options even if it it is worst case scenario as per write up below, Peel Hunt has repeated its 'buy' rating on China-focused Green Dragon Gas (LON:GDG), saying its shift to a pure upstream E&P firm is positive.It comes after a busy period for the company and the broker also remains excited about the coal bed methane specialist's production potential.Although analyst James Gardiner is cautious of an unsuccessful appeal regarding the ConocoPhillips China (COPC) proceedings, a settlement in the case and a securing development funds could represent an inflection point for the shares.Green Dragon revealed it plans to appeal a tribunal's decision, as part of arbitration, that it should repay US$42.6mln plus fees and interest to COPC."GDG is appealing the ruling on grounds that its original claim of good title has now been validated by the re-issued licences. In the event of an unsuccessful 90-day appeal process, GDG has a number of options available to settle the award, including additional asset disposals," noted Gardiner.In its recent half year results, Green Dragon boosted production to 1.34 billion cubic feet in the first six months and by 8.3% in the second quarter compared with the same period in 2012."..we remain comfortable that our forecast average production for 2013 of 4Bcf/yr can be achieved from an additional 34 wells that are awaiting connection to the main GSS trunk line," noted Gardiner.Recent changes to the balance sheet, asset disposals and the ConocoPhillips liability mean the target price is reduced to 372 from 444p, said the broker.The shares are currently changing hands at 200p each.

[wiseacre] 25/11/2013 16:42

you pays your money and you takes your choice but not for me sunny. I wouldn't trust RG further than I could throw him! i can't understand your interest. You say you are not an investor. I too have connections in China and what i have heard about this company does not smell good. I certainly do not have confidence in the alleged agreement.

[stevo2011] 23/11/2013 18:58

GREEN DRAGON SIGNS AGREEMENT WITH CHINA'S CNOOCCoal-bed methane specialist Green Dragon Gas has signed a non-binding preliminary agreement with state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC).Green Drago, which has six production sharing contracts (PSCs) in four Chinese provinces across 1.6m acres of licence area land, said it has entered into a non-binding heads of agreement with CNOOC's Overseas Oil and Gas Corporation subsidiary regarding a potential transaction between the two companies.This is in relation to drilling that had been carried out on its licence area land without its knowledge. Earlier in October Green Dragon was notified that, without its prior knowledge, around 1,500 wells were drilled on five of its six PSC blocks by several Chinese coal-bed methane gas companies, at a cost of more than $500m.The company said at the time that it believed it would accrue revenue and reserves from the wells drilled by these companies.So that's at a cost of more than 500 million

[stevo2011] 23/11/2013 18:42

Wiseacre I'm fully aware of how operations work in china, I've managed supply chains in china for years, RG has had presence in china for over 8 years and fully aware of political wrangles and deals that go on, like I said there is going to be turbulence , the interesting announcement was the HOA RNS with CNOOC , something large is at play and will be played out incidental whether they win or lose the appeal, GDG have asset stream value revenue from production on various liscences they own which can be sold.

[wiseacre] 23/11/2013 16:52

Do you implicitly believe the company's statements Stevo. I am afraid they strain credulity and their claim to "the licences" on which other people, including state controlled entities, have been drilling may not hold good. China is a dangerous place for foreigners doing business, as has been shown countless times and GDG may have reputational issues as bad, if not worse, than Glaxo Smithkline.

[johnwise] 22/11/2013 23:09

Post on Shareprophets ?

[scrutable] 20/11/2013 11:16

acliff
any such questions are usually answered courteously and quickly by Stephen Hill VPO Corporate Communications for both GDG and GDL. I reach him on [e-mail]
You can usually google such info from the company web site via the INVESTORS button.
Good luck . Tell us what reply you get

[acliff] 19/11/2013 14:32

does anyone know anything about the timing of the result of the court appeal?
thanks
alex

[wiseacre] 08/11/2013 15:18

No it's too easily manipulated to short.

[stevo2011] 06/11/2013 15:07

Ha I'm far too thorough for their PR, Stephen hill is poor in that respect, closed you're short yet ?

[wiseacre] 06/11/2013 13:49

I am glad to hear you are not a shareholder Stevo. You must be on the expensive PR team.

[stevo2011] 03/11/2013 22:22

Latest interview from RGhttp://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fBJHJFhYtP4&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DfBJHJFhYtP4%26feature%3Dplayer_embedded

[stevo2011] 01/11/2013 14:49

Gem it is interesting, don't get the company greka (energy) confused with greka drilling, greka drilling is a clean methodology that doesn't require fracking, And clients are only concentrated in China (soon to be India) for the record I'm not invested in GDG , I just despise the likes of tw , EK and their scum followers who get away with murder particularly on AIM and GBO is a classic recent example,But agree will be interesting how it unfolds here, a lot of people who will have blindly followed the gang will have got burnt on their short positions, admittedly there will be more drama to follow here.

[gemferret] 01/11/2013 14:09

I'm watching from the sidelines with no position either way, or intend too To me it's an interesting story watching the bull v bear issue on the back of recent information.

It's apparent that GDG have released news saying they know of the resource on the back of 'theft' by Chinese state owned companies.

Wiseacre has raised a point on GDG apparent failures over a decade ago, which seem to indicate GDG claims are null and void.

Furthermore we are talking the Chinese here who have little respect for legal entitlement in may cases.

Steve reports that Randeep has had problems before and will continue to do so.

Greka drilling springs to mind where one reference spends most of it's content talking about Enivironmental compliance issues, with records for the relevant US states broken on that front.

Court case pending, the history of the CEO, and taking on the Chinese in their own back yard, wouldn't personally fill me with confidence.

So I'll just watch with interest, and hope the bulls are right.

[wiseacre] 30/10/2013 10:17

He is also I believe now persona non grata in the PRC. It will be interesting to see how events unfold.

[stevo2011] 29/10/2013 20:55

RG is a billionaire and has had countless issues in the past and I'm sure he will have countless more going forward, he is also a very connected man and a shrewd business man. He will have contingencies in place for such impacts ie today's RNS

[wiseacre] 29/10/2013 20:49

Indeed,"this is China and you might get a surprise" yourself stevo. Personally I would back Chinese owned companies against a foreign interloper any day. We shall soon get news of GDG's appeal against a $46 million judgment in favour of Conoco Phillips and that might be another nasty surprise to holders. Mr Grewal, chairman and chief executive, lacks credibility imho. I wonder whether he is planning to get a placing away to shore up GDG finances. If so will there be any takers?

[stevo2011] 29/10/2013 15:29

Green Dragon Uncovers Secret DrillingDate: October 29, 2013It is not often that an oil or gas company finds third parties surreptitiously conducting material drilling campaigns on their acreage but that is exactly the position Chinese coal bed methane specialist Green Dragon Gas (GDG:AIM) is in.Earlier this month (8 Oct) the company announced that, without its knowledge, Chinese state energy firms China United Coalbed Methane (CUCBM), China National Offshore Oil (CNOOC), CNPC and PetroChina have drilled a staggering 1,500 wells across its Chinese assets, and around 1,300 on the producing Shizhuang South (GSS) block alone, at an estimated cost of more than $500 million. This activity could lead to a significant upgrade in reserves and this week (21 Oct) the group said it will see it outpace its 5 billion cubic feet (bcf) year-end production target. Shares in the company have been volatile in response to this newsflow (see chart).Question marks over Green Dragon?s Chinese assets were addressed in July this year when the authorities reissued its production sharing contracts (PSCs) in the country and the drilling came to light following this reissue. In order to get some answers on the unusual story, Shares spoke to Green Dragon?s chairman and chief executive officer Randeep Grewal (pictured below).?Organically we are on plan with what we want to achieve and are on schedule for our 18 billion cubic feet output target (by the middle of 2015), in parallel this inorganic growth has happened without our knowledge,? he says. Describing the work as ?an unprecedented drilling programme in direct violation of the PSC? he nonetheless says the news is ?good for shareholders. In terms of the impact on reserves we hope to provide company estimates shortly and will get an independent estimate from Netherland Sewell as part of the usual year-end audit.?Grewal admits the company?s claim to have been unaware of the drilling has raised eyebrows but points to the size of the blocks (which cover a combined 7,600 square kilometres) as the reason such extensive work could be carried out unnoticed.The group has also indicated that plans to secure debt financing to fund a planned 150 wells on GSS next year have been put on hold. The process has been suspended as it waits to receive monies owed from any gas which third parties have produced from its PSCs. Grewal says this ?prudent? move should not push the medium-term 18 bcf target back. Does he perceive any risk the Chinese firms will seek to undermine Green Dragon?s title to the licences in order to spare their blushes? ?I think we?re well past that hurdle point,? Grewal says, adding that although it will seek to resolve the situation in an amicable way, the company?s first obligation is to shareholders.hxxp://news.greka.com/2013/green-dragon-uncovers-secret-drilling/

[stevo2011] 29/10/2013 15:03

This is china you might get a surprise