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Granby Oil & Gas Investors - GOIL

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Stock Type
Granby Oil	GOIL	London	Ordinary Share

	Price Change	Price Change %	Share Price	Last Trade
	0.00	0.00%	62.25	01:00:00

Open Price	Low Price	High Price	Close Price	Previous Close
			62.25	62.25

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Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 10/4/2008 21:33 by hyper al DesWalker Your post sums it up all very well. I started this thread, with the hope that these guys would do good for me/us. I did move on, but many a time I looked at getting back in, based on hope. Unfortunately they have pulled the plug. I do admire them for not taking it all the way and ripping everything from us investors. They have given it a good bash, it has not worked and they have gained some dignity (although I'm sure some will disagree!) by seeing a reasonable close to the situation. Such a shame it has not worked. But some respect for the exit strategy. Best regards to all past and current investors. Hyper Al Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 17/3/2008 12:12 by normannumpty It's all becoming clear now: As predicted £7mm at the end of March. Didn't spot the Mosaic 'default' and the extra £2mm. Concerned that if this is such a good project that Mosiac could't raise £2mm to stay in the game. But I suppose an investment of £2mm for a return of £2.7mm (NPV) on an unrisked basis is a pretty poor deal. Also noticed the comment that significant cashflow to Granby isn't likely until 2009. This means that most of the revenue is going to Mitsubishi until the loan is repaid. The key to success here is that there is sufficient gas remaining to repay Goils £10mm sunk costs and provide a return on our investment. Can't see how they can avoid a placing or a 'consolidation'. Other than Burton management have always been distinctly wary at putting their hands in their pockets to participate. Indeed some of them sold shares recently. Can't see a placing being well received in this market, so I think 'consolidation' is likely favourite option (used to be called being acquired or a 'merger' in the old days). Trouble is who would want the assets?. My own analysis is that the ideal acquirer would need to look like this: 1: UK Production/cashflow 2: North Sea focus 3: Looking to add exploration and development/production assets. 4: Small enough that Granbys assets would be meaningful addition. i.e a market cap of £100-250mm. I was was looking at another company as a potential investment and their recent presentation makes interesting reading, see page 69. Conspiracy Theory number 1: ...why use GOIL as a comparative? there is no obvious basis for comparison? One is a well funded producer and the other isn't. Unless of course they are introducing a 'name' for the investors to remember. Norm Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 27/1/2008 23:30 by lowersharpnose At the investor meeting at Granby last week, reference was often made to a set of posters around the room. These posters had info on a variety of prospects on Granby's acreage. They were prepared for a prospect fair to attract farm-in partners. flyingbull on TMF has since uploaded all of them from memory stick to mediafire... File name: Granby Key Facts 21 Jan 2008.pdf: 0.7Mb Download link: File name: GOG Presentation January 2008.pdf: 2.7Mb Download link: File name: Tristan NW & Monkwell Gas Projects.pdf: 10.8Mb Download link: File name: 13_25 Fatcat.pdf: 4Mb Download link: File name: 16_3 Oakleighpdf: 5.6Mb Download link: File name: 47_18 & 23b Whalebone.pdf: 5.9Mb Download link: File name: 9_22 & 23 14_9a & 14b Globe Roebuck & Anglesey.pdf: 5.9Mb Download link: File name: 15_13b Eagle.pdf: 3.2Mb Download link: File name: Poland Blocks 106 & 107.pdf: 4.7Mb Download link: File name: GranbyAnnualReport2007.pdf: 1.6Mb Download link: lsn Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 10/1/2008 13:18 by deswalker sranmal ... Unfortunately I can't sign up for the meeting as I'll be six thousand miles away on 21 Jan. Are you thinking of attending and if so I'd really appreciate your feedback. Hopefully this will be catalyst for a higher private investor profile. If the TMF crew jump on board then it should make for a nice rise :-) Des Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 22/11/2007 08:00 by lowersharpnose Interim results ...Outlook Increasing demand for energy against a background of supply concerns has ontinued to induce rises in the prices of both oil and gas worldwide. Of particular note is the current strength of UK gas prices. However, industry costs have also continued to rise. In particular, the semi submersible rig market remains very tight, and Granby is fortunate to have booked a well slot for next year already. The jack up and onshore rig markets offer a little more flexibility and the addition of onshore licences in Poland will help ensure continued exploration activity. With continued market sceptism about the funding of many AIM listed oil and gas companies, Granby is well positioned in that, post the sale of Galoc, the Group will be in strong financial health and will have more than sufficient funding to carry out additional appraisal and development activity. 2008 is expected to be another very active year as the Group continues to manage its portfolio, proactively seeking to add further value and provide exposure to exploration, development and production opportunities for investors. David Grassick, Managing Director of Granby Oil and Gas, said: "Granby has made excellent progress in recent months and the Board anticipates this to continue over the coming year. We expect to crystallise the value of the Galoc development created over the last two years by Granby by completing the sale in mid December 2007. The US$25 million consideration plus our current cash will provide more than sufficient funding for the Group's growth over the next year. First production is also anticipated next year from the Tristan NW development project, which is financed and underway, with a development well about to commence drilling. We have an active exploration and appraisal programme underway. An exploration well is currently drilling onshore in Yorkshire, an appraisal well is also drilling the northern North Sea Kerloch discovery, and an appraisal well is planned for the Monkwell gas discovery. We have committed to one well slot on a semi-submersible rig, and are in discussions regarding a second, to enable at least two exploration wells to be drilled on Granby's central North Sea portfolio in mid 2008. Finally, we have added an opportunity for further onshore exploration with the recent option over two blocks in Poland. For a Group of Granby's size this is an immense amount of activity, which we seek to maintain, as we continue to provide our investors with exposure to a balanced portfolio of opportunities." rgds lowerSharpnose Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 18/11/2007 13:15 by lowersharpnose DesWalker, thanks for your estimates on Burton Agnes. From the company website, under Investor Relations->Financial Calendar, the interims are due out tomorrow. rgds lowerSharpnose Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 28/8/2007 14:37 by deswalker pinkpanther, Check out the Major Shareholders section of the GOIL website. Five Instis hold 36.59% and eight Directors hold 33.54% leaving 29.97% (= 10.91 mill shares) for Private Investors and other Instis below the 3% threshold. Very tightly held. Good luck to you too :) Des Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/1/2007 12:15 by bobbyshilling Ed, thankyou for your informative posts here, and the Proactive Investor article; also thankyou Des. I've been looking at this company over the weekend, and like what I see. Exciting exploration currently and near future, (potential BIG upside), and production at the end of this year. Not many shares in issue and low market cap for what is on offer, plus cash in hand. All in all, a nice mix. I feel very relaxed about these. Good luck to all, bs. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 07/1/2007 12:15 by edgein Muppethead, The numbers are not substantial in themselves, its currently a small undeveloped field at Monkwell, the discovery well flowing some 4,466boepd. Its another proven resource to Granby though, so will have a higher present value than Watling. Granby is currently £32m so very modestly vauled considering its cash position (£13.6m cash and equivalents Sept 06) and free carried ventures. What is the benefit of the Dana deal? Dana is now a major player in the north sea with significant financial muscle to help the funding of Monkwell and any gas at Watling. A relationship like that is a useful one to have considering Granby's acreage position. Monkwell, while currently small has appraisal potential than may increase the recoverable reserves and has a known productive reservoir. While its undeveloped it won't have a significant impact on Granby's fundamentals, but is very useful to have. Monkwell is a small field with very decent production numbers, and could be a satellite development if there are any further discoveries in the immediate area. Watling, if it comes in big, could indeed flow at higher rates than the monkwell discovery well, and clearly had much higher reserve potential even at P90. What Granby has done is taken the safe option of mitigating the risk of exploration against the safety of known possible future production and reserves. If watling comes in good then Dana have landed themselves a very good deal and the opportunity also to get a satellite development for Monkwell. In otherwords Granby have given Dana a good turn if the well is a goer. That is potentially much more vaulable than both Watling and Monkwell in that Dana may be much more willing to free carry Granby on farm-in, or farm-out some of their future prospects to Granby. It allows the sharing of development costs of these fields. If Granby had a proven well on Watling already the terms would be very different. Watling while it has high prospectivity and potential, due neighboring discoveries at the same depth near by, is not a guaranteed well, its still expo. Well worth it on a free carry though considering we only have £18m market cap beyond cash (includes Monkwell, Galoc and Tristan NW). On its own Monkwell isn't huge, but when developed could add 400-800boepd to Granby on top of any production from Watling. Tristan could add another 800boepd and Galoc 1,400bopd approximately by end of 07/ early 08. So what Granby are in the process of doing is building up a firm base of shut-in production potential. Releasing news late on a friday afternoon isn't the best timing to get a strong market reaction, coupled with the fact that Granby isn't a hot PI stock. Quite often its just myself and Des on the BB, considering some of the other BB's on ADVFN I'm not complaining, we're here before the rush. Fundamentals will always out in the end. If watling is a large commercial discovery we will get re-rated and no doubt be swamped by momentum investors. VSA resources did a valuation on another gas accumulation in the north sea for another company I hold. They valued world gas/european gas at $9/mcf approximately. If you take a value of approximately half of that for Watling ($5/mcf) you'll get: 15.83% net of royalty 131bcf P90 = $103m, 208 = US$164m and US$294bcf = $232.7m That's at a very modest European gas price for 2008-2012. Reserves net to Granby at a 19.83% wi: P90 = 4.3mmboe, P50 = 6.9mmboe P10 = 10mmboe. imo flow rates between 2000boed-6,000boed on FFD, if successfully discovered and appraised. Monkwell as a small satellite field to Watling as a 2 well tie back say 30bcf total: 0.5mmbbls approximately net to Granby and another 400boepd approximately making a combined very reasonable gas development to partners. The gas properties and the Indonesian oil looks like very solid furture producers (Galoc and Tristan NW at present), this will soon be accompanied by Watling and Monkwell (fingers crossed). All very solid to raise Granby's current market cap from £32m to £100m approximately imo on 2-3000boepd (mainly Indonesian oil production. Its the chance of North Sea big oil that can turn Granby into the next Enterprise or Paladin. Guinea, Anglesey, Eagle, Seahorse, Grenadier, Centurion et al, its not as though we don't have enough to chose from. One good set of wells and strong production from 07 and Granby will be in a good position to develop some of these. Success on Guinea around March and its a whole new ball game. With all these free carried wells and more to come we're not even starting to scratch our £13.6m cash pot. Regards, Ed. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 19/12/2006 09:48 by edgein mortie, Solely considering the Guinea prospect: ELP has a 13.125% free carried interest, and GOIL have a 23.375% free carry also. Low case about 60mmbbls (P90), 91mbbls (P50) and 120mmbbls (P10). Working with the mid case scenario ELP would have 12mmbbls of light oil approximately and GOIL 21mmbbls approximately. At an estimated US$13/bbl for undeveloped North Sea Light oil you would have an asset value to ELP of approximately $156m usd and $US273m to GOIL. ELP 71m shares = £79.5m = £1.12 per share approximately 7.5x upside GOIL 36.4m shares = £139m = £3.81/share approximately 4x upside That is on a hard NAV undeveloped on the mean case. Production from a 60mmbbls field should be 40,000bopd, 60,000bopd from a 90-100mmbbls field and up to 60-80,000bopd from 120mmbbls+ Taking the mean 60,000bopd case: 300 days of production at @$60/bbl - $5 lifting costs and 50% tax on NS oil ELP = $65m usd = £33.1m EPS = 46p GOIL = $155.7m usd = 79.3m EPS = £2.17 Clearly ELP has more upside on the NAV side given their current market capitalistation, but GOIL have a larger slice of the pie and revenues when developed. It is possible that if this prospect is successful that ELP may sell their share for an obscence amount of money, we'll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Development of a 60-90mmbbls field is likely to require at least 3-4 horizontal production wells at start up. Development would either be a stand alone platform or FPSO, if its towards the lower end it will most likely be a tie into Yeoman and then back through the Piper facilities. I hold both GOIL and ELP for their free carried interests in this well, GOIL also for Watling and Galoc. Both of these companies will fly if we find commercially recoverable oil at Guinea, they are sister companies and share many similar interest, but their differences are also interesting. A good find in either company and the investors will do very well indeed, over 60% of GOIL is with institutions or hands of the managment. Guinea is a pure exploration target and therefore high risk, ELP put it at a 34% chance of success. The main reason I'm in is that these wells are free (limited downside), the upside I have covered. Regards, Ed. Read Full Thread Reply

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