Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 08/9/2018 19:22

Good post from Marmited from the GBP BB on LSE

With a bit of research it is easy to find some key evidence of what the majors look out for. As per my previous ramblings, the second 2D survey 2017 conducted to assist in filling in the blanks is a very real game changer here. Repeating Oil seeps across the faulted flanks of Gemsbok, some 200km in size
will be of interest.

As I posted previously, a review of 2,700 US and international exploration wells with a microseepage anomaly drilled around the world, 82% were completed as gas or oil discoveries. Only 11% without associated seepage resulted in a discovery.




With the help of Pancontinental (see link below), looking at diagram B on page 2, it shows all the interpreted oil seepages across the Namibian coastline from 1996 – 2010. You will see the licences which the Majors have snapped up are in locations of clusters of oil seeps. Tullow, Galp, Exxon, Total and Shell, multiple targets/structures within the licence areas.

Take Note: What is missing on diagram B is GBP’s oil seeps. The oil seepage along the faulted flanks of Gemsbok were not interpreted until the 2017 survey. Whilst we remain under the radar with investors, I very much doubt the same can be said of the oil industry, indeed, Pancontinental’s ASX announcement states ‘Diagram B highlights one of the key technical factors focussing the industry’s attention. This is published offshore oil seep data showing the seeps are clustered in the same general areas and on the same trends. In other words, where oil is most likely to be found”.



GLOBAL OFFSHORE SEEPS DATABASE - Gemsbrok will have been added.

We utilize Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images to detect naturally occurring oil seepage in deep and ultra-deep waters, and in untested offshore frontier basins. This technique led to the development of our Global Offshore Seeps Database (GOSD) and its incorporation into Seep Explorer, which has rapidly become the industry standard with support from the majority of the world’s oil companies.

The early detection of active oil and gas seeps in frontier or under-explored basins can greatly reduce exploration risk by establishing both the presence of a mature source and, by inference, the existence of oil and gas accumulations (from which the seeps originate).

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 20:46

Don't know why ECO holders (same holder) have to come here to drum up followers and slate little old GBP, touch insecure ? ;-)

[emptyend] 07/9/2018 19:34

?...erm ......at least GBP's block is in the same basin as Cormorant. Most/all of the wells to come in this round are actually in a different basin......

[penfold6] 07/9/2018 19:11

'Success at C1 will reduce the geological risk on some of these opportunities but make them more expensive.'

'some'...Not GBP...it's 100+ miles away in different geology. #noviceinvestorspumpanddump

If people want a punt on C1 hitting pay(although unlikely with only 15% COS), they should either invest in CHAR(next to drill with higher COS) or ECO(higher COS).

C1 will tell a lot though if it hits something, but Dry would be bad for those solely focused on Namibia.

[cashandcard] 07/9/2018 16:02

Jim,

"We want to be early in frontier regions so that we are not paying a premium"


ECO Atlantic?


Cash

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 15:50

27th August 2018

WFW advises Azinam on Namibian offshore farm-out agreement with ExxonMobil

We have advised on a number of oil and gas transactions in Namibia recently and we expect that the activity in the region will only increase as the market heats up in the run up to various drilling campaigns planned over the coming months”.

[daar] 07/9/2018 14:43

Golden cross baby!!

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 13:18

Don't like posting email replies, however, without naming....here is the jist from a Namibian player and probably applies to a few others as well

There is now increased interest in Namibia from oil and gas companies due to the good commercial terms and positive results of the HRT wells

We are reviewing several new opportunities in Namibia. Success at C1 will reduce the geological risk on some of these opportunities but make them more expensive.

We want to be early in frontier regions so that we are not paying a premium.

The second reply I got this week asking if we were due an announcement before C1 results,

We are reviewing a number of opportunities in Namibia and would announce any new investments by press release

No idea what opportunities they are looking at, but would be surprised if Gemsbok was not on the list

Combined with the Stellar mandate, it does seem possible GBP are close to a deal

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 11:36

Over 2m traded in one morning, when does that ever happen here ?

[fillipe] 07/9/2018 09:28

What is also very significant today, is that each buy is giving quite a firm upward stride to the ask.

Premiums paid to the best ask for even modestly larger amounts.

Looks like a possible move towards action stations....

f

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 09:16

From 2017

“Global Petroleum’s technical team is both intrigued and highly encouraged by its recent work which has confirmed the Gemsbok prospect, a structural closure extending over 200 square kms. It is unusual to identify such a large, robust structure at prospective depths which does not rely on stratigraphic trapping” it stated.

On Wednesday, Global Petroleum stated “Management believes that the new information has significantly improved the prospectivity across block PEL 0029 in general and the Gemsbok prospect in particular. Better imaging from the new 2D data reveals that the known source rock intervals are likely to be within the oil generative window and this, combined with data showing repeating oil seeps along the faulted flanks of Gemsbok, has greatly improved the chance of a major oil discovery. Gemsbok remains the Company’s primary exploration target.”

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 09:10

That won't matter if we are taken out, but adds value to any deal

Players looking to get an opportunity ahead of the C1 result, as per a reply from AEC. ECO said in a reply, there will be corporate activity heading into the up coming wells

The rig workers will no around 25 days if they are in the right ball park. That leaves a window within around 2 weeks to close a deal or potentially pay a premium

Combined with the mandate being removed from the Stellar website and renewed interest reported since the industry presentation in May, it all points to some sort of end game in sight imo

[sawney] 07/9/2018 08:47

I occasionally look in to see what's going on...it's a bit like being in a time warp...we'll all be long gone before they drill anything offshore Italy, in fact I'd be surprised if they get round to doing any seismic...

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 22:06

On current rates 3D + 1 well = $40m ?

Or take out GBP $28m (£20m/10p)+3D+1 well = $68m and farm down 40/50%

The initial cost of the last well to be drill in Namibia was $95m by Repsol. Its the heavily discounted deepwater rig rates that has reignited the interest

I expect Exxon, have a few more moves to make before they have enough interest

We'll see

[emptyend] 06/9/2018 19:09

I don't think they will farmout just for 3D (unless to a services company looking for an equity stake). It would either be for 3D +1 well or a clean sale, I think.Don't overlook the Italian position either. It isn't valueless.

[joestalin] 06/9/2018 17:18

Or it may be dog.....

[encarter] 06/9/2018 16:22

It's not a pony it's a goose and it may be about to lay a golden egg.

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 16:12

A confident someone had a nice little buying spell earlier and has brought some attention it seems

Be interesting if they have another go tomorrow

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 15:59

How many tricks do you need if the one you have happens to be a multi billion barrel prospect and of course hopefully we will have news regarding the Italian blocks next month

There are industry players intent on making corporate moves ahead of the Cormorant result, as confirm to me by one in particular

The fact that stellar have removed the GBP mandate from their website "may" be a result of a select few that are in play regarding a deal with GBP

Of course this could be wrong, but that's the way I see it

I don't think any regulars here have posted outlandish predictions price wise, between 8p-10p seems fair

Regarding dumping shares, I have sold some shares a while back out of a regular dealing account, only to bring them back into a second ISA account. (which I highlighted at the time)

[cashandcard] 06/9/2018 15:56

ohisay,


There will still be interest but, as you allude to, it may well be on poorer terms than if done now. Its the risk smallcaps must run I'm afraid. Either that or the ultimate prospect of having it funded internally, likely via dilution, then moving to the next stage of the project with the majority interest in the license intact.


Cash

[ohisay] 06/9/2018 15:46

If regional operators fail to deliver with the drillbit, then proceed with the planned 3D farmout.

You think this is going to be easier after failure than before failure ??????

[cashandcard] 06/9/2018 15:25

I have to agree with ee's post. They are effectively a one trick pony without enough to get 3D done themselves. However, there is merit to the license and the subsurface work they have done so far. At this stage, they are a high-risk/high-reward punt. But as we see in this industry, things can change overnight if others in the region demonstrate success.

I do think GBP will have to give a lot away in order to get 3D done. This is how I would play it;

1) If regional operators fail to deliver with the drillbit, then proceed with the planned 3D farmout.
2) If regional operators deliver with the drillbit, there will be some value read-across to other license holders in Namibia inc. GBP. Then go and raise funds via dilution or get a cornerstone investor.



Cash

[emptyend] 06/9/2018 09:48

Proximity is always rather over-rated as a factor.....and GBP's blocks are quite a distance away even from the well now being drilled...........but at least it is closer than many other wells - and having a closer source proven will derisk that element for Gemsbok. Perhaps the risking might move up to 18-20%.....enough to justify someone coming in to shoot 3D, at least.It is an important well for the basin as a whole too.....and will likely send everyone back to have a fresh look at their data and prospects. And who knows where that might lead?