Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 01/5/2018 21:33

Agreed, we are not about to spud a well or are we in possession of 3D seismic, but still food for thought

This was Char's thoughts on the same deal

"This was from Char who's prospect "S" potential is 300mmbls* net with Potential upside 1.4Bnbbls*

"AEC paid Pancontinental (Tullows Partner) US$7.7m for a 10% share in PEL 37, Cormorant will be free carried by Tullow so assuming the drill will cost US$35m AEC would have valued the license at US$42m. ((7.7-3.5)*10)



Partnering process on our Central Blocks is ongoing, as from our latest presentation:
"Firm drilling commitment gives commercial advantage in ongoing partnering discussions" - I guess that is what AEC motivated to farm in to PCL Blocks - a firm drilling commitment - our assets in Namibia should be valued higher than Pancontinentals so I take the above deal as the Minimum Result we are likely going to achieve when farming out some of our 65% owned Blocks offshore Namibia. Apart from greater prospects and much higher Chance of Success we also have acquired double the amount of 3D seismic over our license, worth US$39.65m nowadays (6,100km² of 3D seismic * US$6,500/km² of current acquisition cost).

Chariot estimates drilling costs for "S" to be less than US$25m - so less than US$16m net to Chariot at 65% share of costs - assuming Chariot will farmout 25% their remaing share of costs would be lowered to US$10m. If potential partners we farm out to value our license at the same rate AEC valued PCLs then 25% would be worth US$10.5m (42*0.25) and cover our share of costs. My guess is we will farmout 20% to 30% for US$10m to US$20m to two or three minority partners. In any case a firm drilling commitment, news of securing a rig, farmout news and anticipation of the 4Q18 drill should have a great impact on shareprice over the next couple of months..."

[emptyend] 01/5/2018 16:52

Jimarilo,Lets not get carried away. Getting top dollar for any farmout scenario relies on generating some competition - just as with any auction.The question with the GBP farmout is how other companies assess the risking and, with no well drilled within 100km, the key question is over source. But if source can be derisked a bit (perhaps by TLW's well) and there are 2-3 companies with some serious interest, I don't see why a very decent deal can't be done.

[emptyend] 01/5/2018 16:42

...not really, Joe. Its chickenfeed ;-)

[hugepants] 01/5/2018 15:45

Are you kidding? They paid $7.7M on the condition that all costs are carried through to the spudding of an exploration well.

[jimarilo] 01/5/2018 14:24

Chicken feed, actually Joe ;-)

[jimarilo] 01/5/2018 14:22

HP your view is quite different to that of Africa Energy

They paid $7.7m for 10% interest in PEL37 to Pancontinental oil & gas



GBP has 85% interest to play with, which could be multiples of where we are with the above rates. Your scenario is way out of touch of what is happening within the industry

Chariot have said they are looking at farming out to maybe two or three companies, which seems the popular route

[joestalin] 01/5/2018 14:10

J - I think you mean paltry rather than poultry?

[hugepants] 01/5/2018 10:19

As for there being a gazillion barrels down there, well of course there is! That's the game.

In a typical scenario they'll farmout to another party who will pay for the 3D seismic. GBP will be left with say 15% (they have 85% currently). GBP may receive a portion of costs so far. Maybe $1M-1.5M. Where would that leave them? They'd probably need a discounted placing to keep solvent until the 3D results are obtained.

[jimarilo] 01/5/2018 08:25

An asset with the potential 3.66bln bbls best estimate and high estimate near three times that, will not be ignored

The gamble that a deal will be struck whether a farm out or buy out, currently the odds are very much in our favour. As we are in a much sought over location, where drilling costs are as cheap as they are going to get for deepwater exploration ($139k/day as apposed to $650k/day)

10p for GBP is a poultry sum for a major or mid-cap looking to increase their foot print in Namibia

[emptyend] 30/4/2018 17:29

HP....you may be right. But if TLW prove source and reservoir, someone could easily spend $50-60mn finding out if there are 1.6bn boe in Gemsbok.....and that would include buying out GBP for 10p per share. It is a relative gamble, of course, but with perhaps the same amount again in other (then derisked) prospects....and all facing the largest customer across the ocean......it is the sort of scale gamble larger companies should be taking at this point in the oil price cycle.

[jimarilo] 30/4/2018 14:54

That's your opinion HP, however not one I share, not by a long chalk

Each to their own ;-)

[hugepants] 30/4/2018 13:21

I'd be doubtful anyone is going to farm into this unless there is a commercial discovery by one of the other players. You'd be on the hook for probably at least $20M in costs on a prospect that, let's face it, is long odds against.

[jimarilo] 28/4/2018 11:35

Namibia potential boosted by ExxonMobil

[jimarilo] 27/4/2018 23:54

Africa E&P summit 23rd-24th May in London

All the main players presenting, including Stellar Energy Advisors

Page 5 Africa Petroleum Club Namibian Showcase Reception

[jimarilo] 27/4/2018 07:54

Farm out process still on going, much the same as Chariot, who are looking to close a deal before they spud prospect "S"

Both companies potential farmees probably like to close a deal before Tullow spud in September

The CPR shows that GBP (under £4m M/cap) has a massive prize potential compared to Chariot (£43m M/cap)

As long as we have enough cash till we close a deal, for me that's all that matters for now

[ohisay] 27/4/2018 04:52

Forecast cash at the end of June 4.7m$.

[jimarilo] 27/4/2018 03:23

Not giving anything away and no bad news at least

[oilretire] 27/4/2018 01:06

Nothing much to report from a quick skim read....

[jimarilo] 26/4/2018 21:22

This was from Char who's prospect "S" potential is 300mmbls* net with Potential upside 1.4Bnbbls*

Small beer compared to Gemsbok

"AEC paid Pancontinental (Tullows Partner) US$7.7m for a 10% share in PEL 37, Cormorant will be free carried by Tullow so assuming the drill will cost US$35m AEC would have valued the license at US$42m. ((7.7-3.5)*10)



Partnering process on our Central Blocks is ongoing, as from our latest presentation:
"Firm drilling commitment gives commercial advantage in ongoing partnering discussions" - I guess that is what AEC motivated to farm in to PCL Blocks - a firm drilling commitment - our assets in Namibia should be valued higher than Pancontinentals so I take the above deal as the Minimum Result we are likely going to achieve when farming out some of our 65% owned Blocks offshore Namibia. Apart from greater prospects and much higher Chance of Success we also have acquired double the amount of 3D seismic over our license, worth US$39.65m nowadays (6,100km² of 3D seismic * US$6,500/km² of current acquisition cost).

Chariot estimates drilling costs for "S" to be less than US$25m - so less than US$16m net to Chariot at 65% share of costs - assuming Chariot will farmout 25% their remaing share of costs would be lowered to US$10m. If potential partners we farm out to value our license at the same rate AEC valued PCLs then 25% would be worth US$10.5m (42*0.25) and cover our share of costs. My guess is we will farmout 20% to 30% for US$10m to US$20m to two or three minority partners. In any case a firm drilling commitment, news of securing a rig, farmout news and anticipation of the 4Q18 drill should have a great impact on shareprice over the next couple of months..."

[jimarilo] 26/4/2018 20:41

Tullow may also give us a helping hand derisking come September, with Cormorant.

They have a plus one option for a follow up well if required

Chariot then take centre stage, also looking at a back to back well if their prospect "S" is successful

However getting over the first hurdle for us is the immediate task, which should be helped along with the above plays this summer

I like the possibilities here as well, the volume potential, against the current m/cap

Time will tell as always

[emptyend] 26/4/2018 10:26

....Indeed. Though sticking to Gemsbok alone, a total of 1.75bn boe best estimate (4.8bn high estimate) is enough to be going for with a single well.......The key risks are source and reservoir - and there are three (geologically largely separate) shots at proving those up at Gemsbok, but perhaps those could all be tested with a single well?And if source and reservoir are proven, then that will substantially derisk many of the other leads/prospects on the licence....so the economic impact of the initial well on GBP's share price should be getting on for double the numbers for Gemsbok alone.It looks an interesting farmout situation to me, given the potential scale.

[jimarilo] 25/4/2018 19:18

ee, thanks for the heads up

I have always quoted the best estimate figure of 3.66bln bbs and for some reason not taken on board the high end estimate potential, which is mind blowing

You don't hear 9.63bln bbs being quoted very day

[emptyend] 25/4/2018 15:19

Quarterly due on Friday, I understand.It is worth revisiting the CPR before then, I think.......http://www.globalpetroleum.com.au/uploads/files/reports/18-01-12-agr-tracs-gbp-namibia-cpr-1516362266.pdf......three potential targets at Gemsbok - and some very (very!) fancy high-end OOIP numbers, with the main risks being source and reservoir. If oil is present, then it could be massive.And a couple of the other prospects look interesting too.

[jimarilo] 24/4/2018 01:59

The ASX listing requires two reports at the quarterlys

A cash flow report, as well as an activity report

I don't know what is in the activity report any more than yourself

Last year it was published on the 28th April, so I imagine anytime between now and Monday we will both know it's content

[neo26] 23/4/2018 23:08

Jimarilo, Post 5961, what use are those quarterlys when they have no income.The only update you getting "we are working hard in signing a partner", please be patient.Lol