Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 06/9/2018 15:25

I have to agree with ee's post. They are effectively a one trick pony without enough to get 3D done themselves. However, there is merit to the license and the subsurface work they have done so far. At this stage, they are a high-risk/high-reward punt. But as we see in this industry, things can change overnight if others in the region demonstrate success.

I do think GBP will have to give a lot away in order to get 3D done. This is how I would play it;

1) If regional operators fail to deliver with the drillbit, then proceed with the planned 3D farmout.
2) If regional operators deliver with the drillbit, there will be some value read-across to other license holders in Namibia inc. GBP. Then go and raise funds via dilution or get a cornerstone investor.



Cash

[emptyend] 06/9/2018 09:48

Proximity is always rather over-rated as a factor.....and GBP's blocks are quite a distance away even from the well now being drilled...........but at least it is closer than many other wells - and having a closer source proven will derisk that element for Gemsbok. Perhaps the risking might move up to 18-20%.....enough to justify someone coming in to shoot 3D, at least.It is an important well for the basin as a whole too.....and will likely send everyone back to have a fresh look at their data and prospects. And who knows where that might lead?

[superg1] 06/9/2018 09:28

Jim

You were on Eco

Sadly this reads like a typical oil junk pump and dump because it's cheap and few can be kidded into taking the share price up.

12a and 12B are part of the Tullow area as I understand it African Oil are in on the lease with Tullow. As I said GBP are about 100 miles or more off the West side.

Exxon are below Tullow, There are a number of leases that abut the Tullow and Exxon (farmed in lease). GBP is not one of them.

So what caused Exxon to Farm in below Tullow. If they do find oil there the leases it affects most is surely those next to them not the many further away.

African oil do a nice map which points to where all the action is but they are not 'next' to it.

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 08:44

Oh dear its the newbie from the ECO bb

Always a good sign

[joestalin] 06/9/2018 08:38

Any pumping is not going very well. share price is near to how it started the year.

[superg1] 06/9/2018 08:02

Jim

Are you not overstating it a bit here.

The GBP lease seems to be a 100 miles or more from where Tullow are drilling, useful for a pump and dump situation but in reality there are a load of leases right next to Tullow and surrounding Exxon that abut them. Exxon have farmed in immediately below the Tullow block

So why would they take a 100 mile jump and ignore all that around them.

A few tipped GBP, I've had a look and on the Namibia bit it looks like a typical pump on Namibia news because it's cheap and see how how high we the price can be taken for a the dump.

[emptyend] 05/9/2018 22:26

It depends, chopsy. Dry dry dry well with no source would be negative. A breached seal, poor reservoir etc would be neutral.

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 18:20

We are not the only ones, down day across the board, not company specific

Tomorrow is another day ;-)

[winnet] 05/9/2018 14:18

well, back to where we were a few weeks ago...

[chopsy] 05/9/2018 09:57

Thx, that's v clear!

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 09:13

Whilst a Cormorant success would derisk the area in terms there is oil, which we already know in any case, but greater volumes are the prize

GBP's prospects are in deeper water and a totally different type of play, so short term it may effect the SP, but would not effect the prospects

I posted a link here before regarding the N/sea and 200 wells it took before a significant discovery, with 1960's technology

Currently Cormorant is the 17th well to be drilled in Namibia, the area the size of the N/sea or Gulf of Mexico

The industry will find it and seem very determined to do so

My guess there will be corporate action before the Cormorant results and we will be taken out by a Major or AEC will take an interest in the company, could even buy the Peters 40% and then farm down PEL29, as they did with PCL

News is not far away imo

[chopsy] 05/9/2018 08:47

I'll spell it out. If Cormorant fails (15% COS) how will that affect our share price?

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 07:11

African Oil Hunt Returns as Majors Seek to Unlock Vast Reserves



AEC won't have it all their own way, there will be others

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 23:03

From GBP's website re: Geology......Rift basin is the key

"The scale of the extensional faulting in PEL0029 which extends up into the upper Cretaceous section create the classic Horst and Graben structural architecture, as seen in the majority of the world’s rift basins. It is this structural style which incorporates plays from late Syn-rift to the Aptian Carbonate reservoirs, which we believe sets Global's acreage apart from other licences in Namibia."

and from the link in the previous post AEC favour two play types and the later being "Rift Basins"

"Africa Energy aims to replicate their team’s past success in two play types: submarine fans seen in Block 11B/12B offshore South Africa and PEL 37 offshore Namibia, as well as the rift basin seen in Block 2B offshore South Africa. The company’s team has had success with both play types and is focusing on near offshore exploration, given oil discoveries previously made in Equatorial Guinea and Ghanaian waters."

The new venture strategy is technically driven based on play types familiar to the company. Like others looking to gain acreage, Africa Energy is also seeking good commercial terms in politically stable areas.

“We’re trying to get into opportunities early where we have to put down minimal cash up front for exploration, where we’re negotiating directly with governments to get access to a good license, shoot 3-D seismic with a well option or alternatively negotiate with industry partners that already have an attractive license to help them identify prospects and drill a well.”

It all seems to fit very nicely, time will tell

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 22:53

This a great read, 4 pages on Africa Energy Corp

Came out in March, not sure how I missed it

Oil Search: Africa Energy Journeys Into New Frontier



I have had two emails from them now, confirming they are looking at new opportunities in Namibia and would like to complete a deal before the Cormorant results

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 20:58

Sorry, but you lost me ? ;-)

[chopsy] 04/9/2018 20:02

Why not wait for the 85% COF and pick up the bits for a song for the next drill? Or are we to get out before TD and risk success? Probably that would be best or at least a top slice to preserve initial stake.

[oilretire] 04/9/2018 19:46

UK independent Tullow Oil has spudded the Cormorant exploration well in the Walvis Basin offshore Namibia and highlighted by us as a well to watch in our ‘Exploration Watch: 2018 exploration wells’ report. The well is targeting resources of 125mmbbls in a basin slope Cenomanian Cretaceous fan covering 120km2. If successful, the well would open up a potential 1bnbbls in other fans for the company together with the rest of the basin for the industry, where majors have been building a position in recent years, most recently with ExxonMobil’s 30% farm in to AziNam’s PEL 44 licence immediately to the south of Cormorant. The well is one of two high profile wells to be drilled in Namibia this year, with Chariot Oil & Gas due to drill its Prospect S well from mid-October and also covered in our report.

Cormorant is expected to be a relatively simple well to drill, with minimal casing strings required so that, with current lower rig rates, it can be drilled for $35-$45m. The prospect is a turbidite identified on 3D seismic and is a stratigraphic trap that relies on a stratigraphic pinch out at the feeder. As such it has a higher geological risk, reflected in the company’s estimated COS of 15% . One of the fans that would be de-risked by success here is Osprey, which sits in PEL 30 to the north of Cormorant and in which Tullow holds a 15% WI. Osprey has been independently assessed by Gustavson for operator Eco Atlantic (32.5%) to hold gross prospective resources of 245.5mmbls.

On completion of the Cormorant well, the Ocean Rig Poseidon will move south to PEL 71 to drill Prospect S for Chariot Oil & Gas. Prospect S is targeting 459mmbbls in three separate Cretaceous sands draped over a volcanic structure. The presence of source and reservoir was established in Namibia in 2013 by HRT in the Wingat and Murombe wells (located in the PEL 82 licence, now operated by Galp and partnered by ExxonMobil) but these remain the key risks for Prospect S, which has been independently assessed by NSAI to have a COS of 29%. If successful, Chariot plans to move the drillship to drill Prospect W, which is targeting 284mmbbls

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 16:00

All this time waiting and some more so than others, it could all be down to the next 2 1/2 weeks or sooner

Fingers crossed

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 12:18

So, maybe a deal needs to be tied up before then, in case of a discovery increasing the value of the surrounding areas

Of course AEC and Garret Soden are on the inside regarding Cormorant

Off topic..ish, I see Transocean have taken out Ocean Rig, the owners of the Poseidon drillship

[emptyend] 04/9/2018 10:23

....I assume that 34 days is to dry hole TD........and it'll be about 25+ days before even the crew know anything useful.

[jimarilo] 04/9/2018 07:09

Drilling starts at Cormorant, 34 days to completion





Garrett Soden, President and CEO of Africa Energy, commented, “There has recently been a resurgence of interest in the Namibian offshore region from oil majors, and the Cormorant-1 well has the potential to open a significant new play fairway.”

[jimarilo] 03/9/2018 17:06

Waiting on news

[daar] 03/9/2018 13:57

Volume has disappeared

[jimarilo] 03/9/2018 11:26

Edit: better link

Ocean Rig’s drillship set to drill Tullow’s well offshore Namibia



If a suitor wants a deal closed before the Cormorant result they have around 30-34 days

So would expect something before then imo