Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

[bird of dawning] 28/2/2008 18:01

Just got into GOC today, with a pilot buy, after checking their recent results......not really bothered about the IC......DYOR! This looks to be quite an interesting company and an understandable business. At just under 1.5 price/book and and with a 60% earnings increase forecast (Yahoo Finance); 83% gearing and 5.5% ROCE, I'll be watching the share price with a view to averaging in using a `buying on the dips' policy.

I recall Ocean Wilsons (OCN) formerly being a good play on global trade growth and I'm looking to repeat some of that with GOC.....growth at reasonable price!
Regards bod

[cockneyrebel] 28/2/2008 17:55

The problem with tip sheets is that they have to roll out loads of tips in order to keep readers happy. I'd respect them more if some weeks they said 'hey, you know what, there's not much worth buying in this climate, sit on your hands'.

Tipp sheets tend to get a lot right in a bull market and a lot wrong in a bear market. Law of averages. IC do get some spectacular wrongs tho.

Regard all tip sheets as a nudge towards a stock to look at rather than actually go straight out and buy it imo - do your own investigating as I know most do.

GOC still look very cheap imo - there's gonna be a nice divi pay out too.

CR

[slapdash] 28/2/2008 17:42

yup they got this one right but they get most wrong... they will crow about it tomorrow in the results writeup that is if they feature the company...

slap

[azalea] 28/2/2008 08:37

but the IC did get it right in spades - last tipped @ 108p. Given the undeniable excellent results, I expect it to continue to give it a buy recc. Dry bulk shipping companies are on a roll - forward bookings are very high and stretching even into 2010. falling to 120p, I don't think so, but if it, does I will double my holding!

[slapdash] 28/2/2008 08:16

ur because they get so little right they will have a tip update after final results... and they will still say it is cheap and still a buy probably witih updated forecasts..... slap

[azalea] 28/2/2008 08:07

Slapdash
How do you know the IC will be "crowing" this Friday?

[slapdash] 28/2/2008 00:25

chartwise I think this could fall to just above 120p before bouncing up again... interesting to to see how the market reacts to the Investors Chronicle crowing about their tip this Friday.....slap

[slapdash] 26/2/2008 18:00

I have some jeffries forecasts somewhere which I can post when I get a mo but it is all confusing given the change in year end etc...

but I think this is probably on about a 5X p/e for this year...

cheap but what isn't in this space..... i.e. GPRT and GLBS....

however, I remember a jeffries reprot argued that at about 150p these would still be at a discount of about 15-30% to its peers.....

slapper

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2008 17:29

8.65p eps in H1. They look like they could do better than 18p eps for the year, possibly 20p+ I think probably at the time of writing the IC article was referring to this year for that eps as the interims hadn't yet been published.

That would mean a PE for the current year of 6.5 approx and lower for next year. Of course their rec was when the shares were 108p and they were expecting 16p eps this year on that basis. But they may have arrived at that just by annualising H2 last year.

Screaming cheap still imo.

CR

[robsy2] 26/2/2008 16:53

Jeez, whichever way you cut it , it looks cheap.

[luckyjonah] 26/2/2008 14:57

I don't know where they get the *forward* PE of 6.5 from, @ 108p that implies a predicted EPS of 16p - which was the annualised 2007 EPS with only 5.3 ships!

The last I saw Jeffries were predicting EPS08 of 33p which gives a forward PE of under 4 still, and a dividend yield of around 13%. Selftrade shows the Analyst forecast figures at 26.67p for 08 and 43.77p for 09, giving forward PEs of 4.76 and 2.90 respectively, and dividend yields of 10% and 17% respectively - I'm not sure what the SelfTrade figures relate to, perhaps an older set of Jeffries figures?

[azalea] 26/2/2008 14:29

slapdash GLBS FY 3/3.

Just reading through this months IC article which concluded with a 'buy' recc @ 108p. 12 mnth H/L - 70/164p.

Highlights:
House broker Jeffries International believes GOC is trading at an unjustified 40-50% valuation discount relative to its UK peers. New management can be credited with reducing average daily operating costs from $900 to $550, whilst increasing the size of its fleet. If the market rebounds GOC is still likely to continue to trade at a discount to its peers, but a forward PE of 6.5 and a
dividend yield of over 7% seem extreme! Buy.

We know the the dry bulk cargo market is improving. China and S .Korea have already agreed to big increases in iron ore prices, so demand there must be huge and all to the good of GOC, et al.

[slapdash] 26/2/2008 11:59

GLBS results on the 2nd March I think... these appear to be cheaper and have a higher market cap... catch is highly illiqued... slap

Also any views on ACMG????

[katsy] 26/2/2008 11:17

Thanks, I'll have a look. For what it's worth still loads of value in IEC, new resource upgrade expected next month.

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2008 11:11

Half the LSE it seems Katsy :-)

Of the current on the move stuff AXD has just started bouncing 7.2% yield and directors buying - good track record. GDWN and LWB look exciting. Of the real high potential stocks I hold CHW looks like a firework waiting to happen come the results in a couple of weeks.

CR

[azalea] 26/2/2008 11:05

SD
In which case IF I was holding GPRT, I would be switching into GOC, which has a lot of catching up to do in just regaining its previous high attained before its recent excellent H1 results.

[cockneyrebel] 26/2/2008 11:03

I thought GPRT results were ok but not a patch on GOG - I reckon these have 50% more in them compared to GPRT.

Hornicus Maximus GOC imo

CR

[slapdash] 26/2/2008 11:01

I think GPRT is taking a pause.... had a good run up to results.... but like GOC>.. after good news is digested it should move higher and I would hope would be above 400p in the near term....

slap

[azalea] 26/2/2008 10:40

Buyers nibbling after GPRT results have reinforced GOC excellent H1 and prospects for the dry bulk shipping market.

[slapdash] 25/2/2008 14:23

this potentially looks set for a liquidity surge..i.e. to take us to 140-150p

i..e no stock around... buyers coming in.... could take it to a new high...

catalysts... further tips... brokers buy notes... sellers deciding to sit on their hands given results...

we shall see.... in a bull market it can happen easily... in difficult markets you can still get sellers

slap

[azalea] 25/2/2008 12:54

CR, as you know GPRT is up 30p today. Given GOC H1 results, I expect it to do the same and quickly!

[cockneyrebel] 25/2/2008 12:19

I expect GPRT results tomorrow to be good for GPRT an also get punters looking here again - or perhaps they already are today :-)

CR

[azalea] 25/2/2008 11:45

In this morning for two lots totalling 6100. stonking cheap with excellent H1, great forward bookings as far as 2010, 20%+ below its high.