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GOC Global Oceanic

168.00
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Global Oceanic LSE:GOC London Ordinary Share GB00B079WL45 ORD 0.0003P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 168.00 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Global Oceanic Carriers Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1076 to 1097 of 1150 messages
Chat Pages: 46  45  44  43  42  41  40  39  38  37  36  35  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
27/5/2008
11:59
a question. If they charter a ship for next 12 months at £50k per day or whatever . Are they effectively taking a potential hit on fuel rising or do they rent out the boat for £50k and running costs are on top ?


Thanks

felix99
23/5/2008
07:30
good charter from HCL today..... the apparent cheapest of the bunch... albeit on 2007's earnings HCL and GOC are fairly similar...

slap

slapdash
22/5/2008
07:19
stock here is fairly week.. BDI up about 17% in the last 2 weeks but the stock price here down about 8%.... I guess up a lot recently.. but they are going to re-charter some ships soon..... illiqued volatile stock... hmmm...

lets have some news on the re-chartering....

slap

slapdash
20/5/2008
09:08
Slap, I hold no US shipping stocks, too highly rated for me, plus I don't have a feel for how their market moves so I don't take direct stakes in US companies.
Otherwise, I hold a range (c. 15) of other small-caps, some oil & mining related, others tech, others manufacturing, others support services.

Regards,

Courant

courant
19/5/2008
21:27
Interesting debate here and I think it does go to the nub of the valuation issue with these companies i.e. Freight Rates

The key issue is obviously supply and and demand for ships and I think this is what possibly makes this sector lower quality than say mining companies as there can be a supply response.... i.e. more ships... while say getting more oil or minerals in the mining sector is much harder...

I think knowing the supply/demand situation 4-5 years out is inevitably very difficult but Courant is of course right that there will be a significant supply response with much more ships.... at what level these will be delivered and where demand might be is the open question... maybe not all supply will be delivered and the credit crunch has by some estimates curtailed 10%... demand on the other hand appears to be growing beyond expectations but maybe that is just re-routing of iron-ore exports from Brazil (not Australia) to China as we await the latest iron-ore pricing from Oz... so maybe a temporary thing..

also I would say to a previous poster that he/she is making a mistake on the question of prediction.... it is incorrect to assume that since many have predicted a downturn in shipping and it hasn't happend that these forecasters are wrong and it won't happen..... that is a dangerous overconfidence mistake... i.e. in the housing market people had being saying that would blow up for years but were proved wrong so everyone piled in - but they were only wrong on timing.... so I cautiously hold....

On a more positive note the U.S. listed shippers appear to be more highly rated and so that should bode well for a re-rating here....:



Eage ships recently hit a new high... Courant which US ones do you own and what other stocks???? Thanks...

Slap

slapdash
19/5/2008
13:17
BDI up another 250, now 11709
martincc
19/5/2008
13:08
These business should have very strong cashflow; little working capital, no tax and only capex is when they buy a new ship. Currently valued on EBITDA's of 4-5 so thats how long it'll take to turn their current market caps into cash. After that it's all for free.
stemis
19/5/2008
13:06
Courant,

There isn't much difference in the age of GLBS fleet (10.7 years at 31-12-07) and HLC (11-12 years). HCL's ships are generally bigger; Panamax compared to Handymax so probably cheaper to run per dwt. GLBS much higher value than HCL (well 30% more). In terms of duration of hire, well you pays your money and takes your chance.

stemis
19/5/2008
13:02
I don't see oversupply in the market any time in the next few years.

New ships have to be ordered a long way in advance. In many ways ship owners have to forgwet the ups and downs of the market and order a ship regardless of the current market outlook. Of course we are all affected by sentiment and that will have reduced orders to an extent and the tightening of credit market. I don't see demand having slowed in any great way tho, in fact the latest news I see on Bloomberg is the US recession will be over in September (don't tell them there wasn't a recession in th first place!).

I think rates will go a lot higher for dry bulk and liquid carriers over the next 5 years myself - we will need loads more oil and a rapidly increasing global population that is getting wealthier will be wanting more goods. It's a no brainer longer term, if you can ignore the short term noise. Wish I'd stuck to that mantra with Clarkson havin gbought at around 120p about 8 years ago and getting shaken out by press noise at around a fiver.

CR

cockneyrebel
19/5/2008
12:49
Because when rates fall, running costs stay fixed and may make the ship uneconomic to run. At some point, there will be oversupply in the shipping market and rates will fall, it's just a question of when and how much. (the insurance against this being long fixed charters!). Also, look at it from the charterers' perspective - running a ship is much like running a car. If your job involves travelling, you don't run a 10 year old car because of the risk of something going wrong and you not being able to meet your client/boss/whatever. So newer ships should and do fetch higher rates.

Diversification is good!

Courant

courant
19/5/2008
12:37
Courant - I think you are most probably right that GLBS is the best of the three. However, in the interests of a bit of diversification I don't think there is any harm in owning all three - alghough a bit weighted towards GLBS. I find sorting between companies very hard so it is often best just to buy exposure to a sector. Who knows GOC could get amazing charter rates for the two it has coming up for charter even though they are old ships (why would people care much about running costs when iron ore etc is going through the roof)..

slap

slapdash
19/5/2008
11:50
thanks for the comments Courant. From what you say there seems to be plenty of upside.Things looked pretty rosy with the BDI at 7000 so a potential doubling of revenue running though to 2009 looks very interesting indeed. On that basis there doesnt seem to be any rush to take profits on this one.The divi income is amazing as well.
robsy2
19/5/2008
11:21
Guys, couple of points:

It's worth bearing in mind that the Patoro is a pretty old ship - as such, it's expensive to run and won't command premium rates. Plus, it may only have a few more years' service in it. Though, for sure, the Capesize market has gone ballistic!

GOC and HCL are both cheap, but the AIM dry-bulk shipper that is best placed to benefit from strong rates has to be GLBS: higher gearing (so magnifying the effect on the bottom line of increased revenues), younger and lower cost fleet, and (crucially) 3 of its 8 ships on the spot market (making hay!), with another 3 charters due at the end of this year (which are currently on extremely low rates at an average around USD20k compared to USD60k in the market at the minute). It will only take another 6 months of sustained highs in the BDI and GLBS can recharter the majority of it's fleet at extremely attractive rates, potentially close to doubling current revenues.

Courant

courant
19/5/2008
10:30
Heading towards a major breakout and new high - BMS already doing it.

Should fly when it goes through 162p mid.

CR

cockneyrebel
19/5/2008
10:24
Small mention in this week's IC for GOC.... They were upbeat on BMS, GOC, CKN, etc (Of which GOC is the best IMO)
sambessey
19/5/2008
08:50
all the shipping cos, not only GOC, are in the same boat! If a company attains a high charter rate, as at present, then this will boost earnings and beat brokers estimates. HCL has newer ships, so may get a better price than GOC.... it also has funding in place to buy at least 2 more.
cb7
18/5/2008
16:26
lonrho
Yes, I agree entirely with your thoughts. I think GOC have been more cautious with their approach and have better visibility because of it (longer lets). Hopefully we will get an RNS soon about the new charter rates. The point you make about gearing is very valid as well and it will be interesting to see if GOC increase gearing to expand the fleet - They will be looking to do something with the cash they are throwing off.

rettah
18/5/2008
10:50
yes HCL is very cheap but i think that GOCis cheaper.If GOC get similar rates to HCL for their 2 vessels that are due new contracts and assuming a little less for the one due in november it is conceivable that 2009 turnover could hit approaching 100m dollars,that is approx 25m dollars above the analyst forecasts as shown on digital look.That would blow the forecast earnings per share out of the water which at 40p could be exceeded by at least 20p putting GOC on a p/e of 2.5 or so.HCL is probably about on a prospective p/e of 3.GOC also has higher shareholder funds,much lower gearing and 20% more DWT than HCL.However they are both some of the cheapest shares on the market providing charter rates dont fall off a cliff anytime soon.
lonrho
17/5/2008
09:09
HCL do look very cheap (The ADVFN market cap is wrong isn't it?). I make it:
Market cap £110M
2007 profit $19M on 3 ships at Ave $27,000 per day
They now have 6 ships on Ave $47,000 per day

rettah
17/5/2008
08:41
I like the HCL RNS about the new charter rate for one of their panamax ships. They have let it for US$71,000 per day. We have a panamax up for recharter soon that is currently on a rate of only US$28,000 per day.
rettah
16/5/2008
19:20
I'm into HCL as well.... they appear to be the lowest rated at the moment... their website has quite a bit of detail and a few recent presentations....

also they are the lowest rated on both this year's and next year's earnings... so not only are they cheap next year but you get a big fat dividend this year.... pays out 50% earnings..

only caveats are it apparently has roots as a family business... apart from that haven't done too much research on them...

slap

slapdash
16/5/2008
19:07
Anyone looked at HCL - Hellenic Carriers?

Any opinions?

Ive bought a few today

stegrego
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