Global Marine Energy Share Discussion Threads

[pbracken] 18/12/2007 15:33

No overhang - Gartmore have sold its stake to EMER or some other organisation. The deal's on.

[cyberpost] 18/12/2007 15:28

stock overhang clearance seems to have pleased the market makers

[steves2] 18/12/2007 09:36

Welcome back Owl.........

[murtceps7] 17/12/2007 17:19

Thanks Pomp
point taken.

[the_owl] 17/12/2007 10:09

um...interesting. Who would buy 1m?
Back in - 10k only!!

[cyberpost] 17/12/2007 10:08

thanks pb.

[pbracken] 17/12/2007 09:57

It's 1v2 - but you can sell in size and buy only 50K at 11.7p.

[cyberpost] 17/12/2007 09:41

bracken.. what is level 2 please. My level 2 is playing up.. and not showing correct prices.

thanks

[pbracken] 17/12/2007 09:40

L2 very strong - not surprising given the 1M purchase at 11.5p (from EVO).

[cyberpost] 17/12/2007 09:07

spot on PC. Market makers make a market in security (whether it be shares, commodity or anything else). They are not investors.

[pomp circumstance] 17/12/2007 09:00

Spec, its not the MMs selling at 35% disc, its punters!!

the MMs are there to make money, they dont care about a bid.

If there is a bid at 20p , but they have a seller at 10p and a buyer at 12p, they wont hold the stock to wait for a bid.

Most Mms dont carry stock term if they can help it unless they know they have a buyer and most clear their books by the weekend!

[sicilian_kan] 16/12/2007 21:57

steves2, it is possible, but they have to release them, so the truth will out prior to any EMER deal.

[murtceps7] 16/12/2007 21:38

EMER taking over at 16p must still be a doubt until it has happened. This is GME... where RNS, accounts and managements statements have to be taken with a pinch of salt.
This company is a law unto itself and however good the intentions of EMER, they are up against a totally corrupt company IMHO and the outcome can never be written in stone until it has happened....FACT !
The MM's are not selling this at a 35% discount because of some sort of Xmas cheer ;-)

[steves2] 16/12/2007 21:32

SK -

(3) What about the results? The interims are now even later than last year. If they were good, why are they not now released, particularly as they are under review and should be monitoring such matters as part of the review. If results are still v bad, will EMER remain? I don't know, but (2) doesn't bode confidence in me.


What if the results are good, but the current management are to embarassed to release them as they would show that they were trying to sell on the cheap to IDM.....

[sicilian_kan] 16/12/2007 21:31

lol...got married in August...few more months to go yet!

Agree entirely re balance of probabilities.

[n s fletcher] 16/12/2007 21:18

SK... nothing in life is certain.. .except for death and a nagging wife.

its the balance of probabilities that tilts an investment to be a good bet or not.

[sicilian_kan] 16/12/2007 21:02

I'm not saying EMER won't buy GME. I'm just saying it is not a dead cert, and the market price reflects that.

Re OXB, you just show a lack of research and I won't dwell on this as it is the wrong thread. Look at the following to see how the shorting increased from sub 1% to 6% during the year:



Second, people like toomuch have shown level 2 data showing what he believes to be the deliberate collapse of the share price at numerous points recently. Look at his posts a few weeks ago. He has posted "too much" data (:-)) to summarise here.

Third, Oxxon, were bought with shares and an orderly disposal was prepared to allow them to sell, see:




Lastly, re the annual market, $3bn is the current market, OXB hope to expand this, which is an astonishing claim for a hitherto pre-clinical drug:

" If ProSavin's safety and efficacy profile is replicated in humans, then the product could represent a fundamentally new approach for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and could significantly expand the worldwide market for existing therapies, which is estimated to be approximately US$3 billion.""

[n s fletcher] 16/12/2007 20:24

"Emer will be allowed to modify if there are material changes, eg financial situation becomes worse"


that's with any bid. BUT EMER would've had access to GME's books when doing the due deligence. Not only did they not pull out but increased their bid from 13p to 16p. AND they have stated last week they are still fully committed.


What about the results ? The interims were released on the 6th last year. The year before that it was on the 28th Dec. No big deal this time round if they release them later this month as they did in 05. OXB released this years interims around 1 week later than they did in 06. Was it because they had bad news to tell the market ?


As for the EGM in March. Why the suspicions ? EMER have explained the reasons. Its regulatory... nothing to do with them deliberately delaying the offer being completed.

As for finding an example where a final bid was withdrawn... I dont think you'll find one.

[n s fletcher] 16/12/2007 20:15

SK

the market is worth £1.5b a year. Then you can hardly expect OXB to be capped at over £1.2b.. can you ?

and only 3.77% of the OXB stock is being shorted. Hardly an earth shattering figure for the share to more than half.

[sicilian_kan] 16/12/2007 20:12

NS, re companies pulling out, I don't know of any, others may be able to help, but I note:

(1) CF's post above stating "Emer will be allowed to modify if there are material changes, eg financial situation becomes worse, otherwise no they cant modify.

They can pull out. If they do they lose money they've paid out for DD and whatever legal, Nomad fees they've paid (probably about £250k)."

(2) The potential delay to March and the delayed EGM for EMER just make me suspicious.

(3) What about the results? The interims are now even later than last year. If they were good, why are they not now released, particularly as they are under review and should be monitoring such matters as part of the review. If results are still v bad, will EMER remain? I don't know, but (2) doesn't bode confidence in me.

[sicilian_kan] 16/12/2007 20:07

NS, judge my view in six months time. Buy low and sell high, is my investment strategy.

The reason for the low price is (1) credit crunch (2) shorting following OXB's biggest ever UK biotech deal in history, it was known no news wouuld be coming out for a number of months. I too sold at 45p, hoping to buy in later and have now done so, and (3) director selling some shares, though far more kept by her husband - they wanted to buy a house, which in my view is fair enough. I live in Oxford and know how much they cost.

Long and the short of it is if they have a Parkinson's cure, the company will go way beyond a ten bag. Market is worth $3bn per year, and ProSavin could sell at a premium. If they don't have a cure, they will need successful Phase III Trovax results.

[n s fletcher] 16/12/2007 20:00

as for OXB.. why is the share price sitting on a near 3 year low. Looks like the market doesnt take the same bullish view as you do.

[pbracken] 16/12/2007 20:00

A red hot tip for anyone on this BB. WTN is in play. Fill your boots.

[n s fletcher] 16/12/2007 19:55

SK

I have yet to come across ANY finalised bid offer that has resulted in the bidder later backing out. GME is no different. Unless you can name me one to back up your sceptism that this one mighy fail (even a 30% chance of failing).

The reason why the price is lower than the 16p bid price is obvious. And its very little to do with market thinking the bid might fail.