Glisten Share Discussion Threads

[boadicea] 03/11/2009 12:50

Indeed - A restoration of earnings to 2007-8 levels would put it on a pe of around 2.5 and is quite a realistic prospect.
With continuing growth confirmed and no more silly mistakes it could be back around former highs in a year or two making it one of the better investment prospects around and quite suitable for those not wanting to invest in holes in the ground.
Currently I am adopting a wait-and-see approach, as much for the overall market as for GLI in particular.
It is on my list of possible accumulations as funds become available. Due to ISA considerations, this would be easier if it moved to the main market.

The next trading update, probably around mid-January, will be most interesting.

[nurdin] 03/11/2009 11:57

Looks like value here is being recognised....PE of under 4,highly cash generative,legacy isssues now burried and trading is going well.Reckon GLI share price will recover much of the ground it has lost in last 12 months ....120p looks on the cards over the next few months imo....more if the general market condition improve.

[boadicea] 03/11/2009 08:51

I find it difficult to get my head round some of the financing arrangements whch have resulted in very significant impairment to the company's financial performance over the last two sets of accounts.
The Yen adjustment in 2008 was large and arose, I assume - but have not verified, from a failure to take appropriate forward cover.
The 2009 interest 'derivative' appears to be the result of covering variable rate borrowing against escalation of interest rates. But interest rates have actually fallen so that the projected value of the hedge has become negative and the difference between its cost and its current value has to be shown in the accounts. However, it is not in any way a trading loss of the business, rather a capital write down of an investment. If interest rates rise there will be a corresponding 'gain' in the position.

One can only surmise that the loss at Halo appears perhaps to have been due, at least in part, to the opposite situation, where costs were treated as hedged (e.g. bought forward commodities/ingredients) beyond any cover taken due to output requirements running ahead of forecast. The unenviable choice would have been between failure to supply (at contracted price?) and supplying at a loss. That is culpable to an extent as a planning failure, but far more as a failure to account properly, or still worse (but not necessarily the case) if an attempt to conceal.

They explain that the interest hedge value adjustment has no cash cost this year (but a higher interest charge may already have been paid and accounted for) and may yet recover somewhat. If they had taken a fixed rate loan of cost certain, there would be no adjustment required although the overall effect on cash flow over the period of the loan could be essentially the same.
The underlying business appears sound if only about half as profitable as the previous year and with ample scope to recover.

As always, confidence may take time to return in the form of a restored share price

[geoffrey] 02/11/2009 10:19

I would be interested to read comments on the results and banking arrangements announced today. My reading is that finance has been secured at a significant cost but offset by positive trading prospects including resolution of Halo Foods issues. The issue of warrants at 12.5p is interesting as to WHY?

[nurdin] 20/10/2009 09:02

Hi Boadicea

I contacted the company recently to ask if the audit was complete.Was told that it was and the results are no different from those already reported.Expect an anouncement anyday soon.

Yes I agree with your comments on balance sheet but I have focused on their cashflow..which seems very robust.In H1 alone this year they generated an operating cashlow of £2.5m which suggests atleast £5m for the full year ,...barrring any one off exceptional items.

Anyway I think they look very cheap here....

[boadicea] 20/10/2009 08:39

nurdin - Thanks for reminding me of GLI. It had slipped off my radar.

We're in the middle of a quiet period awaiting the delayed results so bound to drift with the added effect of lateness being a lowering of expectations. ("Bad figures always take longer to add up"). However, if the previous guidance on the basics were proving significantly wrong they would have had to tell us by now.

The balance sheet is not strong with rather too much 'goodwill' compared to most companies I might look at. However, it's a lot better than PFD, while even the safest in the sector (e.g. ABF) have a similar tendency and the RB. giant looks worst of the lot.

All in all, not a bad time to be giving GLI some consideration imho.

Just one afterthought - When the year's figures are out and the share price has perhaps recovered a bit further, they might conceivably go for a share issue. Risk is dilution if it's a placing without a matching open offer.

[nurdin] 20/10/2009 07:18

Not many stocks left now with PEs in the 3-4 region...apart from Glisten.The accounting faux pas at Halo Foods and the subsequent profits warning has left a slightly bitter taste in the mouth of investors but the issues there have all been resolved now and GLI look to be back on track.They reported their unuadited results for the year just gone recently which showed profits of around £3.5m and earnings of around 18p. Hardly a disaster for a company capitalised at only £11m !

Fully audited results are due next couple of weeks which will confirm the figures already reported.

GLI has some excellent brand names,is operating in a 'must have' niche of the food market and looks to be growing their market share, judging by their recent trading statement.

Consensus forecast for the current year is for a profit of over £4m and earnins of over 20p,putting the stock on a PE of under 4!

Either GLI will be rerated after they announce their fully audited results...or they will be snapped up imo.Either way I can see significantl upside in the share price from here...

[fillipe] 09/10/2009 11:53

ETO.38.5p mid. Good Trading update yesterday. Hoodless B have a conservative price target of 48p which I feel is readily achievable.

The Company will publish its interim results on 18th November 2009.

Darren Throop, Chief Executive of Entertainment One, said:

"We are pleased with the Company's performance in the first half of the financial year. The results of our film business demonstrate the success of the Company's strategy of sustained investment in content acquisition and we remain excited by the release slate scheduled for the remainder of the financial year. Our television operations continue to produce high quality programming with sales into major US networks alongside international distribution. With the core businesses in the group performing robustly, we remain well positioned to build for future growth.

It's off most peeps radars.

f

Edit. Apols, wrong board I'll leave it here for anypne's interest, but happy to remove it if anyone prefers,

[fillipe] 09/10/2009 11:37

I suppose it's all about waiting for the figs, for now.

m

[qs9] 11/9/2009 14:55

nice tick up again

[fillipe] 27/8/2009 00:28

Bound to get well written up over the next 7/14 days.

f

[cestnous] 26/8/2009 15:59

oe
My feelings also

[overeager] 26/8/2009 12:10

Have to say that this looks cheap based on today's trading statement - even after the rise.

[steadyeddy2] 26/8/2009 10:20

Thanks Cammy.

[cammy3] 26/8/2009 10:09

Have a look on plus. All trades are going through there at the moment

[steadyeddy2] 26/8/2009 09:35

Odd,it's not showing the trades? I delt through Barclays.

[billbyrne] 26/8/2009 08:22

Up 10% so far, more to come in my opinion.

[billbyrne] 26/8/2009 07:37

Should be a nice share price reaction to todays solid trading statement
in my opinion. Up 20% in first 7 weeks, impressive.

[robizm] 06/8/2009 12:15

There was a trading statement 6 weeks ago.

[engineer66] 06/8/2009 11:16

Rising on a tiny volume. Big spread. Recent accounts do not appear to be available. Might be a winner but we dont know whether trading is awful or good. Just a punt on a bid imho.

[robizm] 05/8/2009 20:23

I love it, you sell up and then post all negative, well done on your 45% now f--k off.

[nilip] 05/8/2009 13:01

I've closed out my holding for a very nice quick 45% profit in just 3 days !

Very high risk play given the accounting 'discrepancies' recorded.

Took a high risk punt on this one and it worked out very nicely. Thanks.


GL all.

[gyau] 04/8/2009 15:12

COms on sweet lips

[gyau] 04/8/2009 12:09

TICKING ON UPWARDS