Gldbrg.Gbl.Res Share Discussion Threads

[vish65] 27/1/2016 17:13

The Chart says it all.

Just need to wait to hear the bad news.

[sloppyg] 27/1/2016 15:06

In some ways the current share price will preclude an equity raising imo. The dilution would be so significant that everyone including the current owners would lose out.

I think they will have to go the route of debt financing. What confuses me, as Chip stated, is that by my calcs cash from mining ops will struggle to break even at present after EBRD loan repayments.......consequently how are they funding the u/g at present.

The persistent fall in the share price makes me somewhat nervous that something happening behind the scenes so we are in desperate need of a company update.

[chestnuts] 26/1/2016 17:32

Chris

The decline in GBGR as nothing to do with the price of gold its about fund raising, and the dilution effect thats coming, as i posted last yr one owner could be holding 80/90% of the company, when they joined the main listing all the sharehoders thought it would help get finance, did no one ever bother to open the window and look how getting finance is nearly impossible in this market.

[chrisdgb] 26/1/2016 08:19

Gold bouncing nicely, should really start to help here.........

[chipperfrd] 21/1/2016 11:20

As far as I know we don't have a figure for what Capex may be required now that the shaft option has been replaced by the switch to operating the underground via a decline.

Hopefully the company will soon clarify the level of cash that may be required to reach their 100koz pa target by 2018.

The obvious solution would appear to be via loans as there would be no sense in raising via equity with the market price at current levels.

During 2015 they will have been paying down the EBRD loan at c. $1.25m per qtr. I am surprised that they did not arrange a finance package to eliminate the EBRD debt and cover their U/G Capex requirement. If anything in would appear to indicate that they have been managing on mining cash-flow, but I had not expected that this would have been sufficient even with the big drop in energy costs and Tenge devaluation reducing their in-country costs.

They are a bit of an enigma!
Chip

[chestnuts] 21/1/2016 10:29

I posted last yr about the concern that funding is needed , what % does the current major share holder own 75% if he as stumps up another $35m because they cant raise any finance at a suitable level , he will then probably own 90% of the company , but they may raise $35m at .5p but the dilution to the shareholders will be disastrous but this will be better than one sharholder owning nearly all the company, he then could take it private.

[w1sefool4] 20/1/2016 08:30

An update would be welcome Chip, I'm concerned.

Thanks for your feedback

[chipperfrd] 19/1/2016 19:47

GoldBridges has already begun producing gold and silver from the underground mine and will continue to ramp-up the project which is expected to reach approximately 52% of total capacity in 2015, and 85% of capacity between 2016-17, reaching full capacity by 2018. The underground ore to be produced during 2014-2015 will be sourced from in-ore development arising from bulk sampling, trial stope development and initial stope works. Until 2016, shortfall production will be provided by open pit mining to ensure 850ktpa ore processing is maintained during the transition from open pit to underground.



Chip

[sloppyg] 19/1/2016 16:58

Obviously good to see and looks very attractive on this basis but it is the cash position that is of most concern at present.

They last raised £3.6m back in April 2015 so cash was very tight even back then and we are 10 months on now. We know that, after making EBRD quarterly repayments and the closure of open pit in Q3, that they are unlikely to be generating any cash from ops presently (or very negligible if positive). Consequently the business has to be running on fumes.

Issuing equity at 1p could result in 2x or even 3x no. of shares in issue given capex required so those valuations per in ground oz could change dramatically.

The market appears to be starting to price us as running out of cash so really need a company update regarding debt/equity funding and how much AFR will stump up.

[chrisdgb] 19/1/2016 16:16

Fantastic, above & beyond, Cheers..

[chipperfrd] 19/1/2016 16:05

I have quite a list if you want it!

For Measured & Indicated only (ie. not Inferred). All in US$/in-ground oz.

AAU ~ 76.9
AAZ ~ 9.6
ACA ~ 37.1
VAST ~ 10.2
AVM ~ 1.5
CGH ~ 5.3
CGNR ~ 7.4
AMA ~ 12.9
CMCL ~ 125.5
CNR ~ 11.2
CRND ~ 2.7
FRES ~ 220.6
GAL ~ 65.8
GDP ~ 27.2
GRL ~ 6.9
HOC ~ 14.7
HGM ~ 29.6
GBGR ~ 13.6
HUM ~ 10.1
KIBO ~ 508.9
KEFI ~ 4.6
KGI ~ 84.7
KGLD ~ 8.8
CNG ~ 63.6
AUE ~ 41
MARL ~ 17.4
MIRL ~ 6.9
MTL ~ 83.1
ASA ~ 5.1
RRS ~ 253.3
OTC ~ 1.7
PAF ~ 81.1
PGD ~ 20.4
POG ~ 17.9
OMI ~ 10.5
RRR ~ 128.2
OSU ~ 1.7
OXS ~ 10.8
SGZ ~ 38
SHG ~ 30.1
POLY ~ 145.7
SOLG ~ 116.7
SRB ~ 109.6
STI ~40.8
TSG ~ 39.4

Obviously, one needs to be careful comparing non-producers with producers and some of the above are likely busted!
Chip

[chrisdgb] 19/1/2016 15:46

Cheers, anyone have any idea how this compares to others.....looks a screaming buy..?

[chipperfrd] 19/1/2016 14:49

Just for info:

At current share price the MktCap is c. US$38.281m.

With a total M.I.I. resource of 5.316m oz that equates to an in-ground valuation of US$7.2 per oz.

Just valuing the Indicated resource only results in an in-ground valuation of US$13.6 per oz.

Chip

[chrisdgb] 19/1/2016 10:45

Thanks for the summary and we really need a company update, agree costs should be positive due to currency....

[chipperfrd] 18/1/2016 18:01

The Tenge has dropped about 44% against the USD since Aug 2015.

Over the same timescale the oil price has dropped around 38%.

But since Aug 15 the gold price is only down c. 4.2%.

So costs 'should' have dropped significantly over 2H15 compared to revenue from sales.

However, the company decided to not report the September quarterly operational results, so we have no clear picture as to how well (or not) things have been going since June.

The Deloitte NPV model predicted c. 520,000t of U/G ore being mined over 2015 at a head grade of c. 3.9g/t (@84% recovery that would have meant c. 54koz of Au production). But given the relatively small % from the U/G over 1H15 I do not believe that the full year production will reflect anything like that level yet from the underground.

I would be happy to hear that they are at least getting more from the U/G than they were in 1H15 and that costs have dropped to a level which are allowing them to break even. But regrettably, we don't yet have enough evidence to make those assumptions, even though I feel it is relatively conservative to expect something close.

Last year, the 2H operational update report was filed on 12th March - so I am afraid we may still have quite a wait before we get any sense of the answers to the above!
Chip

[rhotoid] 18/1/2016 16:55

sloppyg, agree
I do not understand at all why this is dropping.
Drop in oil should reduce costs abit, rise in dollar should benefit them as costs in local currency and Gold ticked up quite abit with all the volatility in stock markets from start of year, they should be doing well so fear there is a dilution on the way but expected better from this management.

[sloppyg] 18/1/2016 16:44

Continued heavy mark downs here towards the close each day. Starting to wonder if something up behind the scenes. Hope not but the decline is fairly relentless.

[sloppyg] 13/1/2016 11:36

The problem is the company have documented how many millions they need to fund seki, of which next to nothing is coming from ops.

AFR have gone on record stating they will fund any gaps but I am sure they did not intend to fund the entire amount and the move to the main market was supposed to get new investors on board. Issuing equity at these share price levels is going to obviously result in significant dilution.

Need some clarity in this respect from the company or else not sure where the share price could end up.

[w1sefool4] 13/1/2016 10:27

Freefall and no news from the company

[lfdkmp] 13/1/2016 10:08

Yes the move to the main market has hardly been a resounding success :-(

[chrisdgb] 13/1/2016 09:42

Frustrating to see liquidity here virtually dry up..

[chrisdgb] 31/12/2015 10:38

Would they sell out in 2016..??

[chipperfrd] 22/12/2015 16:25

With the Tenge having dropped c. 50% against the USD over the last 2 years (most of that since this summer!) I imagine the principle shareholders here are pretty happy to have a serious amount of cash invested in the large, in-ground resources of gold at Seki & Kara. I fully expect they will get a huge return over time.

I intend to hang onto their coat-tails!
Chip

[chrisdgb] 22/12/2015 16:17

Indeed, I am ever optimistic that 2016 will be a good one for GBGR..!!

[chipperfrd] 22/12/2015 12:12

Happy Christmas & New Year. See you in 2016.
Kind regards
Chip