Gldbrg.Gbl.Res Share Discussion Threads

[timgw] 24/11/2014 14:25

I feel happier at 3p. My breakeven after about six years!

[tigercub13] 24/11/2014 11:50

Never liked Mondays but today is a gooood day :) Nice rise and not even lunch time yet

[phillis] 24/11/2014 11:28

hello 3p my old friend..

[chipperfrd] 24/11/2014 11:09

It is all starting to come together!

Interesting to note that the Seki u/g reserve is c. 55% of CEY's attributable reserve yet the GBGR MktCap is c. 10% of CEY's ... and, in my view, CEY is itself undervalued!

[lfdkmp] 24/11/2014 11:00

sloppyg

Pleased to agree!

[sloppyg] 24/11/2014 10:52

So the market clearly likes the combination of the cpr, move to main market and the fact that AR will support any funding via debt/equity.

Difficult to fault progress since the change of onwership.

[timgw] 21/11/2014 17:14

Interesting RNS today with the company moving fom the AIM to the main market:

London - Goldbridges Global Resources plc ("Goldbridges" or the "Company" or together with its subsidiaries the "Group" - LSE: GBGR), an independent gold mining, exploration, development and production company with assets in Kazakhstan, today announces proposals to migrate trading in its ordinary shares (the "Shares")from AIM to London Stock Exchange's Main Market for listed securities.

See RNS for full details.

Looks like this should give the shares a higher profile and hopefully bring to the attention of more buyers.

[sloppyg] 20/11/2014 21:14

Interesting development. Tend to agree that will be some short term price weakness through fears of a discounted placement. Longer term though positioning itself nicely. Good to see AR will support shortfall.

How do people read the £35m shortfall.......a shortfall on the 2015 capex plans of £39m only or a shortfall on the entire capex planned of £130m. If the former than would infer the overall shortfall will end up being significantly larger. Not clear in my mind upon a couple of re-reads.

[lfdkmp] 20/11/2014 20:41

mmmmm...

On the one hand exciting Seki prospects, upgraded by management recently and confirmed by the Venmyn CPR. Also tantalising additional Karasuyskoye prospectivity, but still only on the horizon.

On the other hand recognition that current and medium term resources will not match development funding requirements.

On yet another hand (how many is that?) confidence that progress (operational and financial) since Daffern went supports a higher listing on the main market.

So what will the market make of it?

My guess is that short term we will see a negative impact on the share price -a reaction to the explicitly recognised funding requirement; however thereafter (slowly) a growing recognition of the deliverability of the business model...and if/when our Karasuyskoye interest is confirmed by the relevant authorities --(I have much more confidence that this will be confirmed with our current executive team), then fasten your seat belts.

As usual I will of course be wrong, and tomorrow we'll see a 25%+ increase in share price :-)

[sandeels] 20/11/2014 20:19

Yes indeed, happy days. That fall back option will presumably make the deal look more attractive to investors who can appreciate that the listing doesn't look too needy. Also a chance that the PM sector may look somewhat different by then.

[chipperfrd] 20/11/2014 19:52

Yes, that is a surprise, I thought it might take a bit longer to transition to the main market.

re capital requirements: I note that AR stands ready to loan the shortfall!

Chip

[sandeels] 20/11/2014 19:37

...and now showing on this thread.

[sandeels] 20/11/2014 19:34

well, well...

LSE Main Market listing wef 18th Dec 14. Further capital requirement details, see 'Capital Expenditures and Resources' in final section.

hxxp://www.goldbridgesplc.com/images/pdf/Admission_to_the_Standard_Segment_of_the_Official_List.pdf

[sloppyg] 17/11/2014 16:02

Thanks for thoughts Chip.

[chipperfrd] 17/11/2014 15:10

sloppyg,

I have modelled their NPV/IRR using their inputs as reported today and end up with very similar outcomes.

Their figures indicate a LoM of 19 years for their given NPV (rather than the 22 years that you are quoting.

At the upper end of their range of PoG (ie $1400/oz) I make their net cash flow over the 19 years to be $920.2m - so not far off their earlier estimate of $1B over the LoM.

In regard to the initial 4 years of CAPEX required: at the current 2014 average price of gold & silver (ie $1273 and $19.7) I get the following net cash flows over the 2014 - 2017 period.

2014: -$32.8m (partially offset by the $23.26m of cash in hand at the start of 2014)
2015: -$4.6m
2016: +$18.2m
2017: +$32.8m

So this does not look particularly onerous - although it is better to remain somewhat conservative regarding metal prices for the time being.

As you have already mentioned, the SPIIFD appears to indicate State assistance with loans and infrastructure, so the full extent of initial CAPEX may well be mitigated from this source, but that obviously remains to be seen.

Also, as already mentioned, Kara would appear to offer an early increase in tonnage over the 2015 - 2017 period IF approvals are forthcoming.
Chip

[aaaaar] 17/11/2014 15:01

Well according to the Mayan calendar..............

[phillis] 17/11/2014 14:11

perhaps because within the scheme of things your question is irrelevant?
the majority owner will finance the bulk and since the stock is so undervalued it matters not

[chestnuts] 17/11/2014 13:26

Philis

I have not seen one useful post on GBGR you have come out with, i ask a simple question and you have no idea how to answer, they will dilute the share price you can bet on that,

[sloppyg] 17/11/2014 10:57

So bascially the report is saying that fair value (NPV@9%) of Seki probable reserves (at todays POG) is $238m or just under 7p per share. 3 x todays price.

This does however assume no further dilution which is clearly an unrealisitc assumtpion. Some of the $117m capital investment required will have already been funded this year. Going forward there will hopefully be some relatively cheap debt finance on offer via the SPFIID and other sources. There clearly will be a need however for some equity as cash from ops does not appear to cover the funding gap. How much equity is anyones guess.

There is plenty of upside from seki inferred resource and potentially Kara. However, based on probable Seki resource only, it would appear a slow burner with limited upside after any further equity raising.

One question i did have was the following was taken from the Jun-14 results and talks about $1bn of free cash flow for Seki over the 22 years. The assumtpions seem broadly consistent with the probable reserves NPV so how have we dropped to an NPV of c$250m now.....discounting does not take it anywhere near that far ?

"The life of the mine of 22 years is based on the following assumptions underlying the project economics of the model, gold production of 100,000T of high grade ore per annum, this level of production is to be achieved within 2 years of the shafts completion. The model is based on a production cost in the region of US$560/oz. The relatively low level is based on the switch to higher grade underground ore from the current open pit source, giving greater productivity from a smaller ore input into the processing plant. Given these parameters and based on a price for gold at 1,200/oz, the free cash flow over the project life is expected to be in the region of US$1 billion.
Mineral processing"

[phillis] 17/11/2014 10:16

o gawd
the nutcase is back!

[chestnuts] 17/11/2014 08:39

How much dilution will $117.5m cause. 100% or 200% after all the market cap is only $83m at the moment.

-- Key metrics - gold production of 100,000-120,000 oz per year post 2018, initial capital investment of US$117.5M and operating costs of US$518/oz or US$58.19/t of ore mined.

[chestnuts] 17/11/2014 08:38

How much dilution will $117.5m cause. 100% or 200%

-- Key metrics - gold production of 100,000-120,000 oz per year post 2018, initial capital investment of US$117.5M and operating costs of US$518/oz or US$58.19/t of ore mined.

[aaaaar] 17/11/2014 07:35

And....

JORC Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources total 5.14Moz. In addition, a further 3.30Moz have been identified as an Exploration Result below the -800masl. While these will require further exploration drilling to be potentially upgraded to Mineral Resources, this result does highlight the potential for a larger Mineral Resource than is currently estimated. Assuming that this potential were realised, Sekisovskoye would contain in excess of 8Moz of gold.

[lfdkmp] 17/11/2014 07:32

RNS out

CPR at first glance looks good

'GoldBridges CEO Aidar Assaubayev commented: "We are pleased that the strategic review we completed in late 2013 on our Sekisovskoye underground development project has been independently supported by consultants Venmyn Deloitte. This underscores the Board's belief that it is a robust project. We are delighted to include the findings of some of the recent deeper drill holes in our report and the result is that we now have a JORC compliant Mineral Resource at Sekisovskoye in excess of 5Moz, representing an increase of 285 per cent. on the previously stated resource. The Board's aim is now to develop the Sekisovskoye Underground Development Project with a central focus on producing at a highly competitive cash cost." [

[loppylugs] 12/11/2014 18:11

Yes. The 'sell' action today does not embue one with confidence.